India’s defiant stance against US pressure to halt imports of discounted Russian crude may be softening behind the scenes. Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public insistence on “strategic autonomy,” reports suggest that Washington and New Delhi are inching closer to a trade deal — one that could see India gradually reducing its dependence on Russian oil in exchange for eased US tariffs.
President Donald Trump has been pressing India to cut back its purchases of Russian crude, using tariffs as leverage and deploying what analysts call “pressure politics.” The US leader reportedly linked progress on a trade deal to India’s compliance, even suggesting that Modi had privately agreed to scale down imports — a claim swiftly denied by India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Read More: Ukraine’s strikes cripple 20% of Russia’s oil refining power
India’s imports of Russian oil have surged twenty-onefold in three years, from four million tonnes in FY22 to over 87 million tonnes in FY25. With Russian crude now accounting for roughly 34pc of India’s total imports, the country has reaped massive savings through discounted prices — roughly $5 billion annually. Yet, under tightening Western sanctions, major Indian refiners like Reliance Industries have begun reassessing procurement strategies. Reliance, one of the largest buyers of Russian crude, announced in late October that it was halting purchases “to comply with EU guidance” and reassessing its export commitments.
The public rhetoric from Indian officials remains firm. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently declared that India “does not sign deals with a gun to its head” and would not abandon its national interests under foreign pressure. But multiple reports indicate that quiet adjustments are already underway, with refiners exploring alternative suppliers to offset potential losses from restricted Russian imports.
Read More: China defends Russian oil trade, condemns US ‘bullying tactics’
Experts describe the situation as a “delicate dance.” Former US trade negotiator Mark Linscott said Washington is pushing for a symbolic concession while India seeks tariff relief and a trade deal without appearing to bow to US coercion. Former Indian ambassador Syed Akbaruddin called it “classic pressure politics,” adding that while India may quietly reduce Russian volumes, it will avoid any public appearance of capitulation.
The evolving standoff underscores both countries’ complex balancing act — Trump’s drive for a diplomatic win against Moscow and Modi’s determination to project independence ahead of key domestic and international engagements.