The tension that was brewing between Islamabad and Kabul over the cross border terrorist attacks on Pakistan by TTP from its sanctuaries located close to the Duran Line, flared up into serious clashes. Pakistan carried on airstrikes on the residential quarters of Noor Wali Mahsud the leader of TTP. Afghanistan retaliated by launching ground attacks from Balochistan and KPK which were repelled. Pakistan carried further airstrikes to destroy known sanctuaries and training camps of TTP. The situation looked more awful and perplexing when the retaliating attacks from Afghanistan coincided with the red carpet welcome accorded to Afghan Foreign Minister, Mutaqi in New Delhi, and his subsequent support to the Indian stance on the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. The Ungratefulness was galore.
The Durand Line is 2640 kilometers long border dividing Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is populated on both sides by Pashtun tribes, inseparably tied with each other by family, tribal, cultural, linguistic and ideological affinities. They frequent each other on important social and cultural events occasioning the presence of kith and kin from across the border or for border trade. The border has been traditionally loose and porous in the past, crossed on the basis of simple cards, issued by the concerned authorities. However, the officially controlled entry points were Chaman and Torkham for vehicular traffic, bilateral and transit trade.
We would be unwise to fan the smoking embers of anger into a raging flame of war.
The situation was smooth and almost hassle-free until the first Afghan war in 1979 followed by the second Afghan war in 2001 which lasted for over two decades. The Afghani people suffered in both wars. However, the Afghan Taliban successfully returned to power in Kabul in August 2021 reviving hopes for peace and security. Pakistan was the first country to share the jubilation of the Afghan people. The spymaster of the country visited Kabul. Prime Minister Imran Khan greeted their victory as ‘breaking the shackles of slavery’. His remarks were irritating for the US leadership and their apologists in this country. He received flaks from the opposition for his statement.
Maybe, Pakistan had pinned high hopes on the Taliban. We expected that the second Taliban regime would also be friendly towards Pakistan, and stop all the subversive activities carried on against Pakistan from across the Durand Line dismantling the sanctuaries of some known terrorist organizations. They had already pledged in Doha Agreement that they would not allow their territory for terrorist activities against any country. Pakistan made repeated demarches on Kabul since their ascendancy to power. The Special Envoy of Pakistan paid several visits to Afghanistan beside Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. The Taliban leaders made promises but didn’t move against the TTP. We also suggested to them to relocate TTP in the interior of the country making it difficult for their militants to travel all the way to cross the border to attack. This also could not heeded.
The Taliban remained enmeshed in some political and strategic compulsions. The TTP had extended support to Taliban in their war with NATO. They had fought alongside Taliban commanders. Both outfits had developed feelings of camaraderie. Being both Pashtuns, they are also bound by clan affinity while sharing each other’s misplaced perception of a grand Caliphate. The Taliban regime is also faced with security threats from IS Khurasan and some other militant groups supported by anti-Taliban forces. The regime does not want to open a new front by antagonizing the TTP. Instead, the Taliban aspire to have strategic depth in the tribal agencies of Pakistan. They may have also been advised by India to keep the TTP issue alive to pressure Pakistan.
There is no doubt that the terrorist attacks in Pakistan have witnessed a steady rise in 2024-25 carried on by the TTP and BLA. The presence of the IS-k in Pakistan is also confirmed. Our traditional adversary on the east is engaged in creating a war hysteria to win the Bihar by-elections. Any misunderstanding or slight provocation can flare up into a full military conflict between the two neighbours at any time. This time, the conflict may spawn different results verging on cataclysmic consequences for both countries. They have an itch to avenge the humiliation suffered by them in the previous three-day airstrikes. We are also ensnared in a delusionary triumphalism. Both countries are treading on a path that takes them far from pragmatism and wisdom.
Earlier, the Spokesperson of the Army, in the context of Afghanistan, asserted that the status quo was no more an option. Fair enough. Given the chaotic conditions prevailing in the Middle East, the growing aggressiveness of our arch enemy, the political fragility in KPK, and the intensifying insurgency in Balochistan, we also cannot have the war with Afghanistan as an alternative option. We would be unwise to fan the smoking embers of anger into a raging flame of war. The only wise option would be to pick up the thread of talks soliciting the support of the countries which have some influence on the Taliban leadership including China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar. We could also reinvigorate the Moscow format involving Russian leaders to drive home the seriousness of the situation to Afghan leaders.
The US has drummed up its desire to reoccupy Bagram airfield in Afghanistan at any cost. The US leaders are desperate to get back the air base of Bagram which housed the largest US air base with modern weapons. During their abrupt exit from Afghanistan, they could not remove all the costly arsenal. President Donald Trump has talked about it threatening Afghan regime to return the Air base without inviting destruction. Pakistan’s growing confrontation with Kabul at this juncture conveys the wrong message that Pakistan is doing the bidding of the USA to intimidate Taliban to acquiesce in the US demand for the return of Bagram air base. This threat, real or perceived, has compelled Taliban to look up to New Delhi.
This narrative is gaining ground in Pakistan. We should distance ourselves from Bagram issue to kill the above fast spreading impression.
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books.