Pakistan is facing the wrath of climate change. The floods, after wreaking havoc in KPK and GB, are devastating the other parts of the country. The increasing frequency and severity of disasters such as floods, droughts, sea intrusion, and other impacts make Pakistan highly vulnerable to climate change. Despite high vulnerability, climate change remains a largely overlooked and ignored subject in policy corridors. Policymakers often fail to fully grasp the severity and scope of climate threats. They tend to respond to climate issues reactively and struggle to strengthen climate-related institutions. For example, the Pakistan Climate Change Authority was established to streamline policy efforts, enhance monitoring of policies and mechanisms, among other objectives. However, it has not been fulfilling its responsibilities as outlined in its mandate, and some experts believe it has become a redundant body.
In the context of high vulnerability, the government must be cognizant that ignoring climate change is not an option. Neglecting it could jeopardise development goals, disrupt social cohesion, and harm the environment. However, the most severe consequences of climate change would be that it would undermine national security, trigger internal conflicts and wars among States. It is not an assumption; it is a reality and is already happening in many parts of the world. In recent times, climate change triggered conflicts in Syria, Sudan, Yemen, etc., which ultimately led to the collapse of these states.
Leading security agencies worldwide are heavily investing in identifying potential impacts and developing ways to protect national sovereignty and the interests of the people.
Therefore, global institutes, including think tanks, research institutes, and NGOs, have been working on the consequences of climate change for national and international security. Leading security agencies worldwide, such as the Pentagon, CIA, MI-6, and other European agencies, have made it one of their key areas of focus. They are heavily investing in identifying potential impacts and developing ways to protect national sovereignty and the interests of the people. They have produced a good number of documents. Based on their findings, they began to divert resources and train their human resources to tackle the issue more effectively.
However, the work of military and security agencies is mainly focused on the needs of the military, i.e., military infrastructure, preparedness, and operations. They largely overlook the human and development aspects of security. For instance, the Pentagon conducted a study to map the vulnerability of its military and security infrastructure worldwide. Additionally, agencies have also deployed officers to work with academia at the grassroots level for a deeper understanding of the issues. The Pentagon also encourages its officers to pursue higher studies (PhD) in the field of climate change and its impact on security.
On the contrary, the security dimension of climate change is largely missing in the discourse on climate change in Pakistan, not to mention policy. Most alarmingly, the military is not recognising the severity of the national security threat from climate change. For example, as discussed above, the Pentagon is working to relocate military infrastructure to protect security infrastructure. Moreover, the government is permitting the construction of housing societies and business centres in climate-sensitive regions of Islamabad.
On the other hand, there is also a dearth of literature and research studies, especially those based on primary data, which help us understand the problem. We can find only a few theoretical or literature review-based papers or studies. Recognising the importance of the subject, the UNDP Pakistan commissioned a study in 2015, in collaboration with the National Defence University. The author of this article (Shakeel Ramay) led that study. The study’s findings are interesting, particularly in terms of the knowledge of common citizens.
We started the study by probing the knowledge of common citizens. It was notable that 90% of respondents ranked Pakistan among the most vulnerable countries to climate change. They also declared climate change a major threat to livelihoods, food, and water availability. In the focus group discussion, participants emphasised that the scarcity of food, water, and livelihood opportunities would likely lead to conflicts, riots, and violence within the country, as well as wars between nations. They also highlighted the issues of a lack of climate-smart water governance.
Additionally, people had a clear understanding of the potential climate change-related disasters. They were of the view that Pakistan is highly prone to floods and droughts. According to 64 per cent of respondents, floods will become a regular occurrence in Pakistan due to climate change. Another 23% respondents considered that droughts will be prevalent in the future. They emphasised that the intensity and magnitude of disasters will be enhanced, which will have severe implications for the economic, social, and security fabric of the country. Respondents, especially from Sindh and Balochistan, were more concerned about droughts as they had unpleasant memories of the 1999-2003 drought. They revealed that millions of people were impacted, hundreds of thousands of animals died, and hundreds of thousands of people had to migrate in search of livelihood.
We then asked respondents about the potential for conflict arising from climate change. An overwhelming majority (79%) of respondents stated that climate change is contributing to disputes over natural resources. They cited the example of the 2010 flood and subsequent migration of people due to sea intrusion in Badin. They elaborated that some people had to migrate due to the 2010 flood, as they had lost their livelihood and assets. Unfortunately, they were not welcomed by the local communities. They had to face tough resistance from the local communities and provincial governments.
Lastly, we probed people’s understanding of the relationship between climate change and national security. We received an unexpected response; to our surprise, 83% of respondents clearly stated that climate change will certainly impact national security. They were also very vocal on the subject during the focus group discussions.
The majority of respondents rank the impact as high, very high, or exceptionally high. Besides, some respondents from Balochistan highlighted a very interesting point. They stated that the drought of 1999-2003 wreaked havoc on people’s livelihoods and assets, resulting in a significant increase in poverty. Pakistan’s enemies exploited the situation against Pakistan and created disturbance in Balochistan. Although we do not have empirical studies on this, it remains a very important observation. Pakistan must explore it in detail.
In conclusion, based on the study and literature, several suggestions have been developed for consideration, especially for the armed forces. Firstly, the military must conduct a vulnerability mapping of its military infrastructure to climate-related impacts. Second, military agencies must include climate-related factors in defence-related preparations and operational planning.
Third, Pakistan establishes special departments within the military to address non-traditional security challenges, such as disasters, climate-driven migration, etc. We can learn from China, as China has established two main programs: 1) military operations other than war (MOOTW) and 2) humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR), to define the role and responsibility of the military. Lastly, the Government should also redefine policies relating to settlements in climate-sensitive areas or their vicinity, such as coastal areas.
The writer is COO Zalmi Foundation