The floods of 2022 that swallowed one-third of Pakistan laid bare a harsh reality. Now in 2025, another monsoon has turned catastrophe into déjà vu. Just this August, more than one million people have been evacuated from Punjab due to “exceptionally high” water levels in the Ravi, Sutlej, and Chenab rivers-a result of relentless rain and sudden releases from Indian dams. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, flash floods and cloudbursts have led to hundreds of deaths, notably in Buner where over 320 lives were lost, many in landslides triggered by climate-intensified weather. For millions of Pakistanis, climate apartheid is no longer a concept debated in air-conditioned conference halls; it is an everyday experience of drowning homes, broken roads, and ruined crops.
Pakistan emits less than one per cent of global greenhouse gases. Yet it remains among the top 10 countries most vulnerable to climate disasters. The wealthy North continues to indulge its industrial appetite, while the South pays in deaths, displacement, and debt. According to the World Bank, climate shocks may push 130 million more people into poverty by 2030-chiefly in developing nations. This isn’t nature’s will-it’s design.
From the rice fields of Punjab to the hills of Swat, every drowned home and every lost life is a testimony to the cost of others’ luxury.
The imbalance lies in history. The United States alone accounts for around 25 per cent of historical carbon emissions, while all of Africa together barely makes up 3 per cent. Western Europe’s industrial rise was fueled by coal and oil without a thought to long-term consequences. Meanwhile, South Asia, Africa, and Latin America-regions that never enjoyed that luxury-now shoulder the damages. At COP27, the “Loss and Damage” fund was hailed as a breakthrough, yet by mid-2024 it had attracted only $700 million in pledges, a sum laughably small when compared to the $16 billion Pakistan alone required after its 2022 floods. Now in 2025, with devastation again spreading across Punjab, Sindh, and KP, the same hollow promises are being recycled.
The disparity becomes obscene when viewed against the lifestyle of the North. Studies show the richest 10 per cent of the global population produce nearly half of all carbon emissions, driven by private jets, oversized SUVs, fast fashion, and overconsumption. Pakistan’s villagers, who rely on subsistence farming, or small communities in Buner, who live in modest homes on hillsides, are nowhere near responsible for this carbon load. Yet they are the ones paying with their lives and livelihoods.
Domestically, the economic toll is staggering. Agriculture employs about 40 per cent of Pakistan’s workforce and contributes more than 20 per cent to GDP. Erratic rainfall and rising heat have already begun slashing yields of wheat, cotton, and rice. The FAO projects a 30 per cent decline in crop productivity by 2050 if adaptation does not take place. But the crisis isn’t a far-off possibility-it is here. This year’s floods have destroyed thousands of acres of crops in Punjab’s food belt. Cotton fields have been washed away, and the rice crop is waterlogged beyond recovery. Livestock deaths run into the tens of thousands, undermining both food security and rural incomes.
What compounds this injustice is the financial trap built around climate finance. Aid comes in the form of loans, not reparations. Pakistan today spends more on debt servicing than it does on health and education combined. After the 2022 floods, new loans were extended to rebuild roads, bridges, and homes-but that meant adding billions to an already suffocating external debt. In effect, Pakistan is borrowing to pay for the carbon emissions of others. This is climate apartheid at its most vicious: the North pollutes, the South drowns, and then pays back with interest.
The hypocrisy of the developed world is exposed in its policies. Even while urging the South to cut emissions and adapt, the G20 nations collectively poured more than $1.4 trillion into fossil fuel subsidies in 2022. Meanwhile, global climate finance trickled in at around $83 billion-short of the $100 billion a year promised back in Copenhagen in 2009, and far short of the trillions actually needed. With fresh floods in Pakistan, the pledges are being dusted off again, but the delivery remains elusive.
Migration is another silent fault line of climate apartheid. The World Bank estimates South Asia alone could see 40 million climate refugees by 2050. Pakistan is already seeing internal displacements on a mass scale. The 2025 floods have displaced hundreds of thousands across Punjab and KP, many of whom will never return to their homes. Yet the North responds not with open arms but with closed borders. Europe debates climate migration in terms of security threats, not justice. Pakistan, already stretched by decades of hosting Afghan refugees, will now bear the burden of climate refugees largely alone.
Of course, Pakistan cannot absolve itself entirely. Governance failures magnify the crisis. In Buner, outrage followed when flood victims’ bodies were transported in garbage trucks to local morgues, leading to the suspension of district officials. Encroachments on floodplains, poor urban drainage, and unchecked deforestation all turn natural disasters into human-made tragedies. While the global North bears primary responsibility for emissions, Pakistan’s leaders are guilty of negligence, corruption, and lack of foresight. Climate apartheid is international in origin, but national incompetence makes it deadlier.
The science leaves little room for doubt. To limit warming to 1.5 °C, emissions must be halved by 2030. Yet the world remains on a trajectory closer to 2.8 °C. For Pakistan, that could mean annual disasters of the kind seen in 2022 and 2025 becoming the norm rather than the exception. It could mean more frequent Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in Gilgit-Baltistan, longer droughts in Balochistan, and permanent shifts in Sindh’s agricultural patterns. In other words, an existential risk for 240 million citizens.
So what is to be done? The answer lies not in charity but in justice. Pakistan must strengthen its diplomatic posture. Rather than appearing as a supplicant at climate summits, it should forge coalitions with similarly vulnerable nations-small island states, African economies, Southeast Asian floodplains-and demand reparations. The “Loss and Damage” fund must be scaled into the hundreds of billions annually, financed by those with the largest historical footprints. Carbon border taxes and climate tariffs imposed by the North must also be resisted, as they punish developing economies instead of helping them adapt.
At home, resilience must become non-negotiable. Urban planning needs strict enforcement. Reforestation must be more than a photo opportunity. Agriculture must shift toward drought-resistant and flood-resilient varieties, backed by scientific investment rather than populist subsidies. The parallel energy economy-UPS, diesel generators, and solar panels-already worth billions, could be harnessed and integrated into national planning. And most importantly, Pakistan’s citizens must hold leaders accountable for corruption and negligence in climate response.
The deeper truth, however, is that no nation can build walls high enough to stop climate chaos. The North may insulate itself with technology, flood defences, and insurance markets, but its supply chains, food imports, and geopolitical interests remain tied to the South. Floods in Punjab and Sindh threaten textile exports that feed Western brands. Droughts in Africa drive migration toward Europe. Wildfires in Canada choke American skies. Climate instability has no borders.
Pakistan must remind the world that this is not a matter of aid, but of shared survival. Climate apartheid, like the racial apartheid of South Africa, cannot last forever. It is unjust, unsustainable, and ultimately self-defeating. The world can either choose equitable responsibility today or face uncontrollable collapse tomorrow.
For Pakistan, the fight is no longer just about adaptation. It is about justice. From the rice fields of Punjab to the hills of Swat, every drowned home and every lost life is a testimony to the cost of others’ luxury. Climate apartheid is not an abstract slogan-it is the reality of 2025. The choice for the world is stark: end this injustice, or prepare for a future where the suffering of the South inevitably spills over into the North.
The writer is a financial expert and can be reached at jawadsaleem.1982@ gmail.com. He tweets @JawadSaleem1982