Pakistan’s economy has officially joined the $400 billion club, marking a major milestone in the country’s financial history. According to provisional estimates by the National Accounts Committee (NAC), the size of the economy reached Rs114.7 trillion — roughly $411 billion — in fiscal year 2025. This growth reflects a 2.68% increase, though it remains below the government’s original target of 3.6%.
Sohail Mohammed, CEO of Topline Securities, called the development a “notable recovery” amid ongoing economic pressures. He pointed out that Pakistan’s nominal GDP has grown at a compound annual rate of 9.3% over the past five years. However, he also stressed that hitting the government’s long-term target of a $1 trillion economy by 2035 will require strong reforms, political stability, and careful economic management.
National accounts data showed that the economy grew from Rs105.1 trillion in FY24 to Rs114.7 trillion in FY25. In dollar terms, this translates to a rise from $372 billion to $411 billion. Quarterly growth figures were also revised upwards, with the GDP increasing by 1.37% in Q1 and 1.53% in Q2, reflecting steady if modest progress.
Despite the improvement, some sectors continue to struggle. Industrial output fell by 1.14% in Q3, mostly due to lower performance in mining, quarrying, and large-scale manufacturing. On the other hand, agriculture managed a 1.18% rise even with weaker crop yields, and the services sector showed signs of stronger recovery.
To support the economy, the State Bank of Pakistan cut its policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it down to 11%. This decision followed a short pause in March and was driven by signs of easing inflation. Financial experts believe this move could help stimulate demand and support business activity in the coming months.
Looking ahead, Topline Securities expects full-year GDP growth to land between 2.5% and 3.0%. The IMF has also lowered its forecast for Pakistan’s growth in FY25 to 2.6%. Meanwhile, the HBL Pakistan Manufacturing PMI dropped slightly to 51.9 in April, signaling a mild slowdown in manufacturing activity amid uncertain global trade conditions.