India-Pakistan relationship is complex and choreographed with wars, protracted conflicts and active disputes. Though the presence of nuclear weapons has decreased the probability of an all-out conventional war, the frequency of minor disputes and crises has increased manifold. India considers atomic weapons as a deterrent against nuclear strikes, whereas Pakistan assumes that these would deter a nuclear as well as a conventional war. Therefore, the possibility of yet another military engagement between India and Pakistan, similar to February 2019, exists with varying degrees of probability, thus challenging the efficacy of nuclear deterrence. Until the probabilities of military engagements are minimised, the possibilities of peace and stability in the region would remain elusive.
The ongoing tense environment following an attack on the tourists in Phalgam, Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK), on April 22, 2025, has the potential to expand into violent military engagements along the Line of Control (LOC). The unfortunate incident led to the killing of some 26 innocent people who were mainly visiting this beautiful region.
Now, this is not the first such incident inside IOK, and the Indian reaction is also not new to Pakistan. Without any worthwhile investigation, India has blamed Pakistan, as usual, for these attacks. Indeed, Pakistan denies Indian allegations and has extended all possible support and cooperation in the investigation. However, Indian motives are also as expected. The Modi government wants to settle scores with Pakistan for its humiliating defeat in a short aerial engagement on February 27, 2019. Following a failed India Air Force (IAF) airstrike inside Pakistan in the general area of Balakot on the night of February 25-26, 2019, in which a few trees were destroyed against the Indian claim of killing over 350 terrorists in a camp in that area. Pakistan Air Force (PAF) responded in broad daylight the following day and shot down two fighter jets, while the Indian ground defences shot down their helicopter in the fog of war.
The Modi government wants to settle scores with Pakistan for its humiliating defeat in a short aerial engagement on February 27, 2019.
As I said before, this is not the first time that India has stage-managed a massacre of its innocent people in IOK, to malign and then punish Pakistan; therefore, Pakistan is also expected to put up a sober response to India’s age-old strategy of stage management.
As expected, soon after the incident, “India expelled Pakistani diplomats, suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, closed borders, and revoked visas for Pakistani nationals.” While denying India’s charges, Pakistan “closed airspace to Indian airlines, suspended the Shimla Agreement, and imposed trade restrictions.”
Since then, a few border skirmishes have been reported along the LOC, further deepening the risk of a broader scale of military engagement in the area. The global community does not seem alarmed by the situation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, primarily because India has been the darling of the West for some time now due to its projected democratic credentials, vast Indian markets, and an active Indian diaspora around the world, and that too in critical political positions. However, the “United Nations has urged restraint, while external actors like Iran have offered to mediate.”
India has once again used water as a weapon of coercion and compellence to achieve its politico-military objectives because it knows that it cannot tame Pakistan militarily. The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty (IWT), which was brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has been instrumental in managing the water resources of the Indus Basin. The stoppage of water to the lower riparian is not only illegal and inhuman but can also be termed an act of war, which can lead to a full-scale war between the two nuclear neighbours. One must remember what Henry Kissinger said: Nuclear nations do not prepare conventional plans only.
The ongoing political instability in Pakistan, which has led to many incidents in Balochistan, may have instigated India to go for a misadventure at this time. However, India might be forgetting that the people of Pakistan have always remained united in times of crisis.
Therefore, I do not doubt that Pakistan will respond soberly to India’s aggression, as it has in the past. In the age of the information revolution, the people of Pakistan are fully aware of India’s motives and stand united to respond. Now, it is up to India if it wants to test Pakistan and its military again.
In my opinion, if IAF decides to test PAF again, I am confident that PAF will prove equal to the task, In Sha Allah.
The writer of this article has authored three international books: “Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan” “South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace” and “Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War.”