There we go again, same old directors and playwrights, same old scripts, and the same old dramatic stage set across the border. From Uri to Pathankot, from Pulwama to Pulgham, the Indian strategic playbook seems to be a repetitive script of choreographed tragedies and timed triumphs. The sudden emergence of a mysterious terror group, the predictable delay or failure of security response, followed swiftly by a polished narrative within minutes. This cycle has become almost textbook in Indian political and military chronicles.
It’s a script we’ve seen unfold too many times. A handful of unknown actors carry out an attack, conveniently disappearing without giving the Indian security apparatus even a fleeting moment for reaction. Within hours, as if by divine intervention, intelligence agencies have unearthed every detail about the perpetrators, names, affiliations, cross-border links, almost too conveniently. This is no coincidence. This is narrative building of the highest order, akin to what the United States orchestrated post-9/11, but with regional ambitions and domestic political gains at its core.
What follows next is even more telling. Political maneuvers perfectly timed with the orchestrated chaos, be it the abrogation of Article 370, swaying an election with the victim card, or aligning a high-profile diplomatic visit to project strength and gain sympathy. The current episode fits neatly into this familiar plot: the impending four-day visit of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to India, coupled with New Delhi’s long-standing desire to walk out of the Indus Waters Treaty. One can almost predict the outcome which would be a carefully crafted, pro-India and anti-Pakistan statement from Mr. Vance, serving as the cherry on this strategically baked cake. Two birds, one stone-masterfully orchestrated.
From the drama of Pulwama to the grandstanding of the Balakot strikes, India has carefully cultivated an image where it is always victorious, always righteous, regardless of reality.
Here at least one credit must be given to Indian leadership who has mastered the art of timing and narrative manipulation. From the drama of Pulwama to the grandstanding of the Balakot strikes, India has carefully cultivated an image where it is always victorious, always righteous, regardless of reality. Even when Wing Commander Abhinandan was captured and shot down, the storyline was twisted to portray India as triumphant. But behind this curtain of triumph lies a more dangerous game. The incessant saber-rattling and theatrical calls for revenge are not just jingoistic pageantry, they carry with them real risks. Revenge for what, exactly? Has the world forgotten India’s own history of regional meddling and state-led aggression? Its decades-long illegal occupation of Kashmir enforced by a brutal state apparatus, its interference in Bangladesh and Bhutan, its coercive diplomacy with Nepal, its support for Tamil insurgents in Sri Lanka, and its habitual interference in Maldivian politics-these are not the actions of a victim, but of a regional hegemon.
The only neighbor India treads carefully with is China, and that too, not out of diplomacy, but deference to a glaring military imbalance. But with Pakistan, the tone is radically different. Here, India attempts to flex, provoke, and corner. What Indian strategists seem to forget, however, is that Pakistan is not just another adversary but it is a nuclear-armed state, battle-hardened and ever vigilant.
Time and again, India has attempted to provoke Pakistan into conflict, only to be met with Pakistan’s Tactical-Strategic Response (TSR) ascendancy. The Pakistani armed forces, conditioned to operate in a perpetual state of alert, are always a step ahead in transitioning from peace to preparedness. This means the space for any limited war, India’s dream of surgical strategic victories, is shrinking fast. What remains is a vast, dangerous void ripe for strategic miscalculation.
And miscalculation, in a nuclear context, is not just a regional issue. The world today is already drowning in crises: the war in Ukraine, the genocide in Gaza, the tensions in the Red Sea. The global order is teetering on the edge of chaos. In such a precarious time, another high-stakes confrontation this time between two nuclear-armed states can unleash consequences that ripple far beyond South Asia.
Indian adventurism, narrative manipulation, and its reliance on theatrical provocation must therefore be recognized not just as regional bullying, but as a grave threat to international peace and security. The global powers must not be swayed by the carefully choreographed victimhood India so expertly projects. Instead, they should see through the facade and recognize the real danger that lies in encouraging or ignoring India’s dangerously theatrical strategic posturing.
The world must wake up because the stage India keeps setting may soon host a catastrophe too large for any actor to control.
The writer is a freelance columnist.