In all militaries assessing threats is a perpetual ongoing process. Being the military, the process is logical, linear, a step at a time, and laid out. It is carried out individually by all three services and collectively by the JS HQ. Since assessing the threat(s) must lead to response options, the entire process, at all levels, from JS HQ, Service HQ, down to unit levels is a laid down process.
Military threat assessment always included the internal as well as the external component. However, since the advent of this Fifth Generation Warfare, which includes terrorism, assessing the threat has become slightly more complicated. Both components have to be married to retain balance in what is, in effect, a two-front war.
Once the quantity, quality, and composition of threat(s) have been enunciated, militaries go through the process of formulating Hypotheses. Hypotheses are campaign plans for the enemy. In other words, they seek to make plans on how the enemy(s) can best utilize the forces available to achieve its aim(s).
Only then can one look at response options. After considering options for each hypothesis, militaries identify either the most dangerous or the most likely one and mount their response on that one. For each of the other hypotheses, the response options, referred to as Variants, are also spelt out.
The time required to switch to each variant is then worked out along with indicators which help identify which hypothesis is actually materializing so as to switch to the necessary variant in sufficient time as to not be surprised.
To the uninitiated, this might seem complicated but it actually is fairly simple, because, like all military processes, it follows a laid down process of methodology.
Terrorism may have complicated the military’s threat assessment a little but, compared to an assessment of the national threat, it’s still child’s play. In our case, the military threat, including external and internal, may always be a predominant portion of the threat to the nation but, it is far from being the only significant one. In fact, assessing the national threat may seem like a nightmare; which, perhaps, is why no one wishes to address it.
There is also the economic threat. This too is domestic as well as external. We are borrowing from international donors as well as from our banks; and these debts are mounting; and let’s not forget the interest, which is also multiplying.
While our export/import imbalance has reached record heights, our industry does not seem to be picking up. Agriculture chips in but, with an incrementally increasing population, environmental degradation resulting in changing weather patterns, how often can it do so?
While the threat of terrorism is likely to be a constant for some years to come, it is not impossible to imagine that external military threats may also materialise at a time when our economy is increasingly vulnerable
Shouldn’t someone be assessing the economic threat from multiple sources and their impact on the future, so that we can consider our response options before the economy drowns us?
The environment poses its own threat. Our region has, not only become vulnerable to increasingly frequent earthquakes, but due to global warming, melting glaciers, and changing weather patterns, repeated warnings from multiple sources have warned us that, very soon alternate years may bring droughts and floods by turn.
For floods we need to increase our water damming capacity and, if we can’t make a more permanent provision to re-route water overflows, at least identify locations from where we could do so whenever the need arises.
For droughts we again need to increase water storage capacity. Kalabagh dam seems to have become too controversial for even military dictators to undertake so how can one expect elected leaders to have such courage? But we could build a few hundred small dams which will collectively, provide as much, if not more storage and cost less than a tenth of one mega dam.
It doesn’t end here; floods and droughts will impact adversely on agriculture. This impact will extend beyond agro-based industries to include those dependent on agro-based raw materials. But, even if we confine our immediate needs to merely feeding our population, we need to increase our grain storage capacity and, simultaneously, have reciprocal agreements with numerous countries of assistance in such an event. And don’t forget the impact on health of humans, animals, and crops.
We have a National Disaster Management Authority which will, hopefully, come into action after we have been affected.But, I, at least, am unaware of any preparations for disasters in future and, if they are to become increasingly frequent, we need to foresee them and, as the Boy Scouts Say, Be Prepared.
I could continue to expand this theme by adding other sources of threats to our nation but, the most dreadful fears are more profound. While the threat of terrorism seems to be a constant for some years to come, it is not impossible to imagine that external military threats may also materialize at a time when our economy is increasingly vulnerable and/or we are faced with threats from nature as well.
That is why a national threat assessment is a nightmare which no one seems willing to attempt. And that, precisely, is why it must be addressed with an increasing urgency.
Obviously, this comes in the domain of what is called the Planning Division. But, in my view, it needs an independent wing under it which assesses threats to our nation, considers response options, and recommends their priority, explaining why.
It needs to be borne in mind that the sources of these threats are not only diverse but are dynamic. The assessment of threat(s) and responses, therefore, must also be dynamic in conception and be updated annually.
This process is a permanent and ongoing one which will depend on quality intelligence. Not only from ‘agencies’ but also from geologists, meteorologists, doctors, biologists, engineers and what have you.
The writer is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
Published in Daily Times, August 20th 2017.