Who will win the general elections of 8th Feb 2024 is the fourth difficult question to answer after: Will elections change anything at all? Will elections be free and fair? Can the drop of honey sweeten the salty ocean? Before we delve into the complexities of answering these daunting questions, the nature of elections in Pakistan should be understood. Elections in Pakistan are nothing but a game- yet to receive a name.
The rules of this game are not fixed. To phrase it more clearly, all are equal but some are more equal than others to fit in this competition. The referees are chosen and gifted generously by the key players. The game usually starts with the announcement of the date for nominations and elections while the caretaker government takes care of the government. The chances of victory of every party are predicted based on the key players of the team. This process often ends up giving us an elected body of government that hardly covers its tenure and this cycle keeps repeating itself.
Presently, the game of Pakistani politics has three key players in it: PML-N’s supremo Nawaz Sharif, PPP’s co-chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and PTI’s founder Imran Khan. The challenges for every party to win are enormous. Let’s examine the opportunities and threats that the above-mentioned political leaders might come across one by one.
All are equal but some are more equal than others to fit in this competition.
PML-N’s victory in Punjab is ineluctable for three reasons. First, the public in general and the middle class in particular find it hard to forget the relief provided to them under Nawaz Sharif’s governance. Second, the ongoing negotiation between PML-N and several other parties including the ones supported by business tycoons seems successful for PML-N. Third, except for PML-N, no other contesting parties have ever witnessed the swift acquittal in many cases. As far as perils are concerned, Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification from contesting elections and holding public office for life by the apex court is the trouble.
Against PML-N stands the young player Mr. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari coached by the game-changer of Pakistani politics Asif Ali Zardari. The reason for PPP’s success in Sindh is an open secret. Having potential connections with feudal lords and social safety networks for the impoverished, Mr. Bhutto Zardari is unbeatable, as always, in Sindh.
The idea of bringing youth and ending traditional politics by Mr. Bhutto Zardari has received sufficient applause in Punjab. But there is more to it. The consolidation of Mr. Asif Ali Zardari with leftovers of PTI is another element in cementing the success of PPP. Faisal Vawda’s meet-up with Mr. Asif Ali Zardari is an apt and recent example. While PPP’s success in Sindh is obvious, Punjab posits the challenge with the return of Nawaz.
Imran Khan is a player who would have likely given a tough time to both PML-N and PPP if he was not behind bars. Rejection of the petition in the Toshakhana case by the Supreme Court, sudden disappearances, and attacks on his party members are indicators that Imran Khan, no matter how hard he tries, will not be able to contest elections and campaign for his rusting gold party. His win seems unlikely but not impossible. Khan’s party is scattered asunder. With badly dismantled party, Khan stands a little chance to winning this time.
Apart from these key players, there are supporting players as well without them the game is at least incomplete if not unplayable. The supporting players are the ones contesting as independent. Once the votes are in their pockets, they will wait to get the best deals offered to them.
Having briefly examined the key players and supporting players, the winner overall is PML-N if the problem of disqualification does not hinder the “swift” process. As far as the question of change is concerned, the end of the elected body’s tenure will certainly indicate that. Subsequently, the decision of whether elections will be free and fair or rigged is indeed rocket science before 8th February 2024. Lastly, the drop of honey can sweeten the ocean if and only if the drop is as big as the ocean or the ocean is as little as the drop.
The writer is a freelance columnist.