In 1962, the redoubtable Herman Kahn released his follow on to “On Thermonuclear War.” This book was called “Thinking the Unthinkable.” Then, the consequences of thermonuclear war were unthinkable.
A thermonuclear weapon is 1000 times more powerful than a nuclear one as fusion produces that much greater energy than fission does. Warheads made of Plutonium and not Uranium would have made much of the planet uninhabitable for about 24,000 years-its radioactive half life.
As a thought experiment, what are some of the “unthinkable” scenarios that might be pondered not merely as an out of the box exercise but in discarding the entire box? A just published biography of Tesla/X owner Elon Musk reported that last September, Musk limited Ukraine’s use of his Starlink satellite system to prevent Ukraine from attacking Russian targets in Crimea. The book alleged that after speaking to Russia’s ambassador to the US, Anatoly Antonov, Musk was warned Russia would retaliate with nuclear weapons.
Ukraine is entirely dependent on Starlink for GPS, internet and satellite communications. Certainly for the first time in modern history, a civilian has had the ability to determine the outcome of battles and tactical operations in a war. But Musk does and did.
Aside from the obvious national security implication of not having confirmed officers in positions of authority, the internal damage done to morale when families cannot move to new duty stations and the overall promotion system will be vast. Imagine a collapsing house of cards. That is what is happening to the chain of command hierarchy.
Thinking the unthinkable, are there other areas where an individual can have such leverage? The US Senate is one such place. Alabama Senator and former football coach Tommy Tuberville is preventing confirmation of over 300 flag and general officers. Tuberville is trying to end the Pentagon policy of providing out of state transportation for service personnel requiring access to reproductive medical care.
Aside from the obvious national security implication of not having confirmed officers in positions of authority, the internal damage done to morale when families cannot move to new duty stations and the overall promotion system will be vast. Imagine a collapsing house of cards. That is what is happening to the chain of command hierarchy.
Regarding the service chiefs and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, deputies will become “acting,” meaning temporary as the principals retire. The Federal Vacancies Act limits acting status to 210 days. Months from now, the Joint Chiefs may not be a legally constituted organization. This is absurd but not even the worst case.
Suppose a senator filibusters the budget or the use of a stop gap continuing resolution. The government would be forced to shut down. Or, by exercising the right of exerting “holds” on appointees, specific defense programs could be halted.
The unthinkable here is the prospect of a member of Congress becoming a “useful idiot” manipulated by a foreign government to take action that would harm the US. “The Manchurian Candidate” movies portrayed this. However, the Tuberville holds suggest this is no longer unthinkable.
Other unthinkable scenarios affect politics. Suppose Donald Trump is convicted and sentenced to jail in the Atlanta case and elected president. Georgia law precludes pardons for convicted felons until at least five years have been served. And presidents have no pardon authority for state cases.
Everyone knows Joe Biden will be 82 at the time of his re-election. Many are worried about a President Harris should Biden not be able to serve. But here are some unsettling facts. Eight of forty-six presidents have been assassinated or died in office. One, Woodrow Wilson, was incapacitated by a stroke and the Spanish Flu for well over a year before his term expired.
The unthinkable is if Biden is incapacitated. 2024 is not 1918. Ubiquitous and instantaneous coverage would follow. Imagine the political chaos and turmoil. And think how Donald Trump will react claiming a second stolen election if he wins the party nomination and loses again. Unthinkable?
Finally, the third unthinkable is a continuation of last week’s column that described the greatest US economic boom in history occurring from 1922-29. Suppose, given the trillions of dollars allocated to infrastructure and other domestic programs, a powerful economic transformation is unleashed in 2024. Stock markets soar; prices contract; wages grow faster than inflation; and the mood in America grows optimistic about the future.
Would that automatically elect Joe Biden despite his age, his son and questions about the fitness of Vice President Kamala Harris to serve? How would the Republicans respond given a scenario in which the party could lose both Houses of Congress? Would that give Biden a mandate to make even greater changes?
Or suppose the reverse occurred. The economy tanked and Republicans won both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. Still, one wonders in that case how Mr. Trump could govern from prison.
He writer is a senior advisor at Washington, DC’s Atlantic Council and a published author.