Tajikistan is a diverse country with multiple opportunities. Since its independence from the Soviet Union Tajikistan has been working hard to put the country on the development track. The successive governments have tried to come up with innovative policies and strategies to find a suitable path for sustainable development. The efforts are paying off, as the country is moving on the path of sustainable development. For example, poverty had decreased sharply in Tajikistan. At the time of independence, poverty was very high and almost 83 percent of the population was living below the poverty line. According to a study of the Asian Development Bank report now only 22.5 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. It is a remarkable achievement to keep in mind the economy of Tajikistan.
Tajikistan is also going through a rapid economic growth period. World Bank pointed out that the country exhibited a marvellous performance on the economic growth front. The World Bank data suggested that Tajikistan grew by seven per cent on average during the last decade. The pro-market policies are paying off and contributing to the rapid growth and development of the country. To sustain growth and development momentum, Tajikistan is also working to enhance its linkages with multiple countries. For that purpose, trade is one of the areas, that require special attention from the State. It is good to note that the leadership of Tajikistan is cognizant of the need and is putting efforts into enhancing its trade linkages. Presently, the prominent trade partners of the country are Turkey, Kazakhstan, Switzerland, Afghanistan, and Russia. Major exports consist of the country consist of metals, cotton, and fruits and major imports are minerals, industrial equipment, and clothing. Tajikistan is also looking to utilize its hydro-power electricity potential. It is planning to export hydropower to neighbouring countries at affordable prices.
Connectivity with Tajikistan can pave a sustainable way for connectivity between Eurasia and South Asia.
After joining the World Trade Organization in March 2013, Tajikistan has accelerated efforts to integrate into the global economy. It helped Tajikistan to improve its linkages and enhance trade, but there is a need to diversify trade linkages. Right now, Russia, China, and Kazakhstan are the major partners on the import side, which accounts for 76 per cent of Tajikistan’s total imports. On the export side, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Switzerland are major partners, which constitute 55 per cent of the total exports of Tajikistan.
Unfortunately, right now Tajikistan cannot get the desired results due to multiple problems. For example, the country is landlocked and there is also a need for huge investment to build industrial and supply chain infrastructure. The present government is putting efforts into building an industrial base and constructing quality supply chain infrastructure.
For that purpose, Tajikistan will have to enhance the role of the private sector in the national economy. The World Bank data suggests that at present private sector is small and accounts for only 15 percent of total investment, 30 percent of industrial output, and about 13 percent of formal employment. It is good to note that Tajikistan has realized that private sector contribution should be enhanced. That’s why the government is promoting the role of the private sector. It is also required to achieve the targets of increasing domestic incomes by 2 to 3.5 times between 2016 and 2030. It is a gigantic task, that would require major reforms and financial resources. Thus, Tajikistan will have to look outward to attract investment by offering incentives.
Against this backdrop, Tajikistan is organizing a major investment forum, “Dushanbe Investment Forum”, in Dushanbe on 29-30 September 2023. It is a concrete effort to diversify the economy, enhance the role of the private sector and attract foreign direct investment. All leading companies and State departments will be participating in this conference. They will be looking for reliable partners from across the world, which can help bridge the investment gap and construct the industrial base and supply chain infrastructure.
Moreover, Tajikistan is also erecting new transport infrastructure to attract investors. Tajikistan being part of the China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor of the Belt Road Initiative is trying to speed up the process of building transport and connectivity infrastructure. Recently, Tajikistan and China also talked about the construction of the China-Tajikistan-Uzbekistan highway. They also discussed the potential of the Kulob logistics centre in southern Tajikistan and how they can work together to develop the multimodal transport corridor linking China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Turkey.
However, to enhance the connectivity, Tajikistan would need reliable Sea ports. In this context, Pakistan can be a good choice and partner. CPEC route and Gwadar port would be excellent choices for Tajikistan, which would also be attractive to the business community. It will be a win-win proposition on multiple accounts. First, Tajikistan can access warm water and attract investors by presenting Gwadar port as a good connectivity nod. Second, Pakistan can benefit from Tajikistan’s market, especially from IT, technology, banking, financial services, medicines, etc. Third, both countries can also expand cooperation in the field of industry. Fourth, it would be a good opportunity for Pakistan to market the CPEC route and Gwadar port at an international forum. Fifth, connectivity with Tajikistan can pave a sustainable way for connectivity between Eurasia and South Asia.
Thus, it is strongly suggested that we should benefit from the emerging opportunities. Pakistani business community should attend the Dushanbe investment forum and try to forge partnerships with the Tajik business community and international investors.
The writer is COO Zalmi Foundation