With the victory of the “No” campaign in Scotland, the crisis in the UK and Scotland is far from over and the disillusionment with the UK political establishment and the state is not going to wither away. Both Cameron and the Tories are going to face a very turbulent period ahead, particularly with deepening political and economic crises leading to more instability and turmoil in the UK and far beyond. This campaign for an independent Scotland resonated with the Northern League in Italy, the Catalan and the Basque nationalists in Spain, the Flemish in Belgium and there are whispers of independence even in Bavaria, Germany. Apart from other European countries, ripples could be seen far and wide on a world scale from Kashmir to Balochistan to Quebec and many other places.
The turnout was an unprecedented 85 percent, more than three and a half million people — bigger than any election ever held in the UK’s history — participated in the vote. This alone makes it a political earthquake sending shockwaves through the UK’s political establishment. The cavalry was called in with the most serious voices of the bourgeoisie making 11th hour announcements for the no vote. Editorials in The Financial Times and The Economist, the most reliable of capitalist mouthpieces, soberly outlined the bourgeoisie’s case for maintaining the union, with the Financial Times describing separation as a “fool’s errand”. Lloyds Banking Group and the Royal Bank of Scotland both added to the economic threats of the “No” campaign, claiming they would seek to relocate to London in the event of a yes vote. Mark Carney, the governor at the Bank of England, warned Scots about the dangers independence would pose in terms of monetary policy.
“Be afraid, be very afraid,” was the message of analysts at Deutsche Bank in a note to investors on the risks posed to the UK economy by the threat of Scottish independence. While the majority of Scottish people voted against separation, a massive 45 percent of people did vote for independence, a huge increase compared to anything before. In Glasgow, the biggest city in Scotland, the yes vote recorded 25,000 more votes than the “No” campaign. This meant that many hundreds of thousands of working class people voted yes, not in support of nationalism but in the quest for a new system and life. The fact that over 1.6 million people voted to separate from the UK and its rotten establishment is a sign of rising discontent with “austerity Britain”, which will not go away with the end of this referendum.
As an advocate of reforms as opposed to “austerity Britain”, a swing of Labour voters from 18 percent supporting independence in August to 35 percent in early September is significant. This swing and desire for change was reflected in the result. The four areas that voted yes — Glasgow, Dundee, North Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire — are all Labour heartlands that have suffered heavily from de-industrialisation in the past 40 years.
The fear of a high turnout and a yes vote shook capitalist leaders and led to the panicked promises of modern home rule and greater devolution from the no side. They will now have to deliver on these promises, despite opposition from Tory backbenches. Despite the result, the “No” campaign was clearly tarnished by an unholy alliance of Labour, Tories and Liberal Democrats, viewed with suspicion by the proletariat. Cameron, Clegg and Miliband could not be seen on the streets for fear of being attacked. Labour in Scotland is viewed as further towards the right than elsewhere in the UK, playing straight into the hands of the nationalists. Whereas Alex Salmond put forward an Obama-style “change” rhetoric, presenting himself as a social democrat, all three parties (including Labour) have bound themselves to austerity and could therefore only offer nothing but scaremongering. Cameron and company arrogantly refused to put the option of Devo-max on the ballot, which would have had the support of the majority.
There was an audible sigh of relief at the result from Westminster. Danny Alexander, Liberal Democrat MP, stated, “The markets had responded well”, as if “the markets” were the electorate. But as Walpole stated, “Today they will be ringing the bells, tomorrow they will be wringing their hands.” For many in Scotland there is understandably disappointment and even anger at the result, seen as a missed opportunity to deliver decisive change. It was a dream shattered. Many on the left will also be very disappointed because they see the vote as endorsement of the status quo. Some thought a yes vote would have offered a more progressive Scotland with greater opportunities for socialism.
That ignores the little detail that socialism was not on the ballot paper! Salmond’s independence was always tied to capitalism and the British establishment, promising to lower corporate tax on big business, retain the pound, keep the Queen as head of state and join NATO and the EU. The reality is that, as long as an independent Scotland remains tied to capitalism, it will remain tied to austerity. It is not just the nasty Tories in Westminster that are carrying out cuts. In response to the global capitalist crisis, ‘left’ and right governments across Europe are adopting austerity measures as they attempt to save capitalism. A yes vote would not have altered this fact. It would not just have been a case of the Scottish National Party (SNP) carrying out cuts and subordinating itself to western imperialism. Any party that does not put an end to the capitalist system will have to do the same. No part of the “Yes” campaign — from the SNP to the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) and Radical independence Campaign — seriously posed an alternative to capitalism but only made vague promises of “progressive change”.
Ever since the fall of the Soviet Union, it has been crystal clear that socialism is international or it is nothing. Socialism in one country is not possible; this is even more the case in a small country like Scotland. The fight for socialism needs the unity of the working class. Workers are stronger united and anything that divides the working class undermines that struggle. There is enormous bitterness and anger in the UK and Wales against the establishment and its puppet politicians. As in Scotland, there is a feeling of being continually let down. The unprecedented turnout in Scotland demonstrates this anger and a desire for change. It is only through the struggle for socialism, which relies on the utmost unity of the working class, that a real transformation through collective ownership and the dismantling of the power of big business can be ascertained. The close victory for the no vote does not mean acceptance of the status quo. In no way is it an all-out victory for the UK’s ruling class. Their relief and euphoria is hollow. The ruling class has been rudely shaken. The massive radicalisation in this campaign that drew in tens of thousands to meetings and rallies for the first time is the reflection of a seething revulsion to this worsening capitalist exploitation. A new wave of class struggle impends throughout the UK and far beyond.
The writer is the editor of Asian Marxist Review and international secretary of Pakistan Trade Union Defence Campaign. He can be reached at [email protected]