The war in Afghanistan is now the longest war in living memory. It has been a 36-year war for the Afghan people and a 14-year war for the west. The US spends about $ 115 billion a year in Afghanistan. The training of the Afghan army and police costs one billion dollars a month, 90 percent of that money is provided by the US. US officials make no secret of the fact that, in the future, the size of US aid to Afghanistan should be comparable to the money being received by Israel, i.e. $ 11.5 billion a year. The IMF estimates, however, that Afghanistan will require $ 68 billion just to train its army and police forces. The country’s own GDP is $ 18 billion, so international assistance will be indispensible. In 2011, only three percent of the cost of maintaining the Afghan police force was contributed by the Afghan government itself. In 2012, the figure reached seven percent while, in 2013, six percent had been spent by the government itself on maintaining the Afghan police — in 2014, the figure dropped to 5.2 percent.
The issue of international economic assistance to Afghanistan was discussed in July 2012 at a special conference in Tokyo. However, the Chicago summit held in May 2012 made it quite clear that there is not enough money in the pool. Afghanistan’s civilian institutions account for only 20 to 30 percent of all government spending. Specialists estimate that only about a fifth of that money reaches the ordinary people while the rest goes to those who are, in fact, responsible for the chaos in the country, i.e. contractors and intermediaries. The US believes that Afghanistan’s economic problems can be resolved by making the country part of the regional transit and communication networks. However, that will require cooperation from neighbouring countries and, in so far as possible, the participation of private investors. Large private companies have long been contemplating big projects such as the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline (TAPI).
The future commercial system, which aims to open up great opportunities for the whole region, could be based on the Northern Distribution Network, which is a military supply system. The US strategy is to hand that network over to countries in the region, the idea being that at some point in the future it will start to pay for itself. The US wants to encourage economic cooperation between countries in the region and Afghanistan; it is ready to support bilateral and multilateral partnership projects, even Iran is welcome to participate.
At the November 2010 International Investment Conference on Afghanistan, held in Dubai, Foreign Minister of Afghanistan Rassoul reiterated the importance of improving the investment climate in Afghanistan and the measures the Afghan government was taking in this direction. He paid special attention to the transportation sector because, whether looking at development of mineral and energy resources or agriculture, an efficient and secure means to get these goods to markets must be ensured.
The overarching western objective in Afghanistan should be to prevent that country from becoming not just a haven for transnational terrorists, but a terrorist’s ally as well. That was the situation prior to 9/11 and it would be so again if the Taliban return to power with al Qaeda backing. The western community can prevent this indeterminately as long as it is willing to commit significant military resources to a counterinsurgency effort. Moreover, economic assistance to Afghanistan is a prerequisite for counterinsurgency coupled with eradication of extremism.
However, the focus should be on transport strategy, i.e. reestablishment of Afghanistan’s traditional role as a hub of transport and trade, linking Europe and the Middle East with South Asia through Pakistan. The international community should also need to build infrastructure at the border areas of Pakistan to connect Afghanistan with South Asia. Afghanistan’s top export markets are Pakistan, Iran, India, Saudi Arabia, the Central Asian Republics and the European Union. Imports primarily come from China, Japan, Pakistan, Iran, the Central Asian Republics and the European Union. This transport strategy can remove impediments to the long-standing issues of extremism and terrorism coupled with the removal of the trade barrier at regional and inter-regional level.
The writer is a freelance columnist