Over the last month, at least 30 Palestinians and eight Israelis have been killed in a spate of violent attacks across the Palestinian territories and Israel. The violence that started with Palestinian anger over Israel’s actions at the al-Aqsa Mosque compound, comes at a time when prospects for a political settlement have almost completely faded. So, is a new uprising on the way? And how will Israeli and Palestinian authorities respond to it?
The Israeli government has adopted a number of tough measures against Palestinian attacks. Scholars claim that this is the birth of a third Palestinian intifada. There is concern among diplomats and analysts in the region that the escalating violence could further deteriorate the economic, social and political conditions of Palestinians. The first intifada was a Palestinian uprising against the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza, which lasted from December 1987 until the Madrid Conference in 1991. The uprising began on December 9, 1987, in the Jabalia refugee camp after a traffic incident when an Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) truck collided with a civilian car, killing four Palestinians. In the wake of the incident, a protest movement arose, involving a two-fold strategy of unarmed resistance and civil disobedience, consisting of general strikes, boycotts of Israeli civil administration institutions in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, an economic boycott consisting of refusal to work in Israeli settlements and on Israeli products, refusal to pay taxes, refusal to drive Palestinian cars with Israeli licenses, graffiti, barricading and widespread throwing of stones and Molotov cocktails at the IDF and its infrastructure within the Palestinian territories.
Israel, deploying some 80,000 soldiers and initially firing live rounds, killed a large numbers of Palestinians. In the first 13 months, 332 Palestinians and 12 Israelis were killed. Given the high proportion of children, youths and civilians killed, it then adopted a policy of “breaking Palestinian bones”. The global diffusion of images of soldiers beating adolescents with clubs then led to the adoption of firing semi-lethal plastic bullets. Over six years, the IDF killed an estimated 1,204 Palestinians. Between 23,600 to 29,900 Palestinian children required medical treatment from IDF beatings in the first two years. One hundred Israeli civilians and 60 IDF personnel were killed.
The second Palestinian uprising, known as second Palestinian intifada, started in September 2000, when Ariel Sharon made a visit to the Temple Mount, seen by Palestinians as highly provocative. Palestinian demonstrators, throwing stones at the police, were dispersed by the Israeli army, using tear gas and rubber bullets. In the second episode of intifada both parties caused high numbers of casualties among civilians as well as combatants, the Palestinians by numerous suicide bombings and gunfire, and the Israelis by tank and gunfire and air attacks, by numerous targeted killings, and by harsh reactions to demonstrations. The death toll, including both military and civilian, was estimated to be about 3,000 Palestinians and 1,000 Israelis, as well as 64 foreigners. The damage done to the Palestinian economy was over $ 1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2002, compared to an annual GDP of $ 4.5 billion.
However, the violence has yet to reach the level of that intifada, in which more than 40 Palestinians were killed and almost 2,000 injured in the first few days alone. But the way in which a pattern of lethal violence, funerals, clashes and revenge appears to be building quickly into a cycle is similar to the first and second episodes of the intifada. However, this time, social media is playing an important role as the youth is trying to counter Israeli propaganda. The picture of victims, their ages and professions are constantly being updated by the Palestinian youth. However, it is yet not clear whether the United Nations and its Security Council will adopt a naïve stance or respond actively. What should be the reaction of the Organisation of Islamic Council (OIC)? How will regional and extra regional powers, mainly the US and Iran, respond to it? Violence is escalating but it is not yet clear whether Palestinian society is united in its desire for another prolonged period of unrest or not. If this unrest erupts, it will have a long-term impact on regional and international politics.
The writer is a freelance columnist