Pakistan-Afghan relations are historically unique, the seven dynasties that included Ghazni (960-1116 AD); Ghori (1186-1206 AD); Slave Dynasty (1206 AD); Khilji (1290-1320 AD); Tughlaq (1320-1414 AD); the Lodhi (1451- 1526 AD) and Mughal rulers (1526-1857) used Afghanistan as a corridor to enter the subcontinent; with varying degree of success tried to rule Afghanistan as a part of Muslim empire in the subcontinent.
A Sikh ruler Ranjit Singh ruled Afghanistan from his Capital Lahore. The British, as a part of their Great Game, waged three wars against the valiant people of Afghanistan and left the legacy of Durand Line for Pakistan to deal with after they left the subcontinent in 1947. Unfortunately, Afghanistan was the only country that did not support the independence of Pakistan at the UN. In the recent past, Pakistan got sucked in the great power rivalry after the soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979. Pakistan supported the US proxy war in Afghanistan waged by the so-called Mujahideen. The Mujahideen government was replaced by the Taliban in 1996, who ruled Afghanistan from their stronghold in Kandahar. The Taliban were driven out of power after the US invasion of Afghanistan in December 2001 following the September 11 attacks. The second Taliban takeover on August 15, 2021, following a hasty and ignominious US withdrawal, has opened up new challenges and opportunities for the two countries to find and build new mutually advantageous political, economic, and diplomatic foundations to build a sustainable and mutually beneficial relationship. Pakistan has played the role of facilitator in arranging dialogue between Taliban and the US; leading up to the Doha Agreement, which resulted in an almost bloodless takeover of Kabul by the Taliban fighters, and peaceful US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The least Pakistan expected from the US and the Taliban, the two antagonists, was an expression of gratitude for the “positive role” played by Pakistan for a smooth and peaceful transfer of power in Afghanistan. The dust has not yet settled in Kabul on the take over of the Taliban. There are some serious incidents on the Pak Afghan Border as well as statements challenging the validity of the Durand line, thus impinging upon the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Pakistan. While distrust seems to increasingly define Pakistan-US relations, Pakistan needs to immediately address these two major diplomatic challenges. This article will deal with Pakistan-Afghan relations. Some of the developments on the Pakistan-Afghan border are a matter of grave concern. Some Afghan local commanders reportedly dismantled the border fence and perhaps exchanged hot words with the Pakistani troops deployed on the checkpoint. There are some new realities on the Afghan Political landscape that Pakistan needs to take into account while calibrating its Afghan Policy. One, unlike the first Taliban takeover of Kabul, the second coming of Taliban has been achieved by the Taliban relatively independent of Pakistan’s military/logistic support.
The least Pakistan expected from the US and the Taliban was an expression of gratitude for its “positive role.”
Secondly, the US directly held talks and signed the Doha accord with the Taliban for a bloodless withdrawal, thereby, recognising the Taliban as a de facto political force with military wherewithal, which can control Afghanistan after their withdrawal. In fact, Pakistan was co-opted as a facilitator, so perhaps the Taliban do not consider that they owe any political or diplomatic debit to Pakistan, three, this time around the emerging superpower China as well as former foe turned friend Russia are supporting the Taliban. Further, the Taliban feel that they have wrested power in Kabul after waging a guerrilla war for two decades against the US and they owe no gratitude to any country, including Pakistan. Fifth, the Taliban do not face any tangible opposition within their country, since all the anti-Taliban Afghan leadership and warlords have fled or are in hiding. Sixth, the only daunting challenge the Taliban Government faces is financial/economic, for which Pakistan does not possess any substantial leverage. The sanctions have to be lifted by the US and financial assistance if and when, would be provided by western countries / Western controlled International Financial Institutions ie World Bank, IMF Asian Development Bank, etc. Pakistan played host to an international conference in Afghanistan in which a Trust Fund was established for providing Humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan. How much Political/ diplomatic mileage Pakistan makes out of this conference, would be subject to one’s assessment.
Pakistan needs to re-calibrate its policy towards Afghanistan, by not unrealistically raising expectations and muting some of the pronouncements of political /religious leadership linking the Taliban victory to the victory of some kind of ideological or religious crusade. Pakistan also needs to make sure that it invests its political and diplomatic capital in Afghanistan, most prudently keeping in view its vital national interests in the immediate and mid/long term perspective.
Historically, the missing link with our relations with Afghanistan has been, the total absence of interaction of our civil institutions, ie, chambers of commerce, universities, public and private banking sector, etc. While re-calibrating our Afghan policy, which is sustainable and serves our vital national interests, it is necessary to open channels of communication and interaction between the civil institutions to further consolidate an already existing security and military relations with Afghanistan.
Pakistan may initiate a Strategic Dialogue with the interim Afghan Government to find a durable solution to three major areas of concern to Pakistan:
1. The Pakistan Afghan Border Management and completion of the fence;
2. Elimination of safe havens for TTP and other anti-Pakistan elements from Afghan territory;
3. Stopping abuse of Pakistan-Afghan Transit Trade Agreement and stopping smuggling, including narcotics and arms and ammunitions from Afghanistan.
The writer is former Ambassador of Pakistan to Vietnam