Is this the end of an era for Europe? A combustible mix of events and circumstances now taking shape could spell the end of Europe as we know it. The process of industrial, political, legal, economic, social and cultural integration of European states – begun in the early 20th century and forged in the blood of two world wars – is being eroded from within by political pressures unleashed by the huge influx of refugees resulting from the Syrian civil war and insecurity from the rising threat of terrorism. The possible end of European unity – in which states traded sovereignty and identity for common markets and collective security – would mean the end of a powerful idea, a great experiment based on the binding appeal of secular, liberal, democratic values.
Timing is everything. The Turkish downing of a Russian warplane near the Syrian border nearly drew NATO into a conflagration with Moscow that very likely would have ruptured the military alliance. Turkish-Russian antagonism continues and threatens another rift: the EU depends on Russian oil and gas. Then there is the timing and impact of the United Kingdom’s “Brexit” referendum, in which the British people will vote next month on whether to stay or leave the European Union. Given the terrorism scare and the migrant pressure (and Dutch voters recent rejection of closer economic ties to Ukraine), a British vote to leave the EU could prompt similar referenda in other countries and may very well signal the beginning of the end of an integrated Europe.
Not so fast, say some. Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy is calling for an expanded EU that would include Russia and Turkey. “New Europe,” suggests Mr. Sarkozy, would be tripartite, differentiated by current, integrated eurozone countries, then the smaller countries, with a lesser degree of integration, and then Russia and Turkey. But how realistic is his proposal considering current state of European affairs?
The EU turned a blind eye to Turkey’s disastrous overreach with Russia and went on, led by Germany’s Angela Merkel, to sign a deal that would grant Turkey $6.6 billion to help curb the flow of migrants into the EU. In the process, the EU acquiesced to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s shakedown in which he demanded visa-free travel for 80 million Turkish citizens and reconsideration of Turkish membership in the union.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions, so even if well meaning, EU leadership has neglected to look at the possibility of all retreating ISIS fighters moving into Europe under the guise of Turkish vetting and registering of refugees. This move, noble and humanitarian in intention as it may be, could essentially open and legalize the integration of Islamist extremists and former jihadists into the European Union. The resulting possibility for ratcheting up tension between European states looms on the long-term horizon.
We should not assume that the EU would not have fallen under its own weight. The two latest phases of EU expansion, which included Bulgaria and Romania (2007), and Croatia (2013), demonstrated that the EU project may have already become too big for itself. Many of the members were admitted to expand the geographic footprint of the union, but have never been fully integrated, since their economies lag far behind the western European and central European member countries. Some, like Greece, as well as at various times Spain, Portugal and Ireland, have been labeled “failures” after their financial near-collapse and accused of spending other members’ tax money, a sentiment that is still potent among German, Finnish and Dutch voters. The refugee crisis has only added fuel to existing fire.
Under all of these powerful and simultaneous pressures, the “European identity” built up over decades is unlikely to be the glue that will keep the EU together. A more likely scenario is that each country will turn to its own devices and self-defense, seeing that the leading EU countries are unable to counter terrorism on their own soil. Indeed, European multiculturalism has proved itself rather ineffective in comparison to the American model (where the second generation of American-born immigrants becomes fully Americanized and integrated into society). European migrants are not being assimilated and their alienation is fertile breeding ground for discontent and extremism.
Pivoting toward American-style multiculturalism, however, could save Europe. If the Middle Eastern, African and Asian families who migrated to Europe over the past several decades can integrate more fully beyond their own national, racial or religious groups – as American migrants have since the 19th century – a melting pot could strengthen European identity, solidarity and resolve. Whether Europe will sustain its project and overcome its current chaos remains to be seen, as does the kind of order that would follow the current one. What is certain is that the new decade will not see the EU as we see it today. Courtesy – The Washington Times