Turkey and Russia share a very complicated history, as their ties have seen many fluctuations over the years. There have been a number of Russo-Turkish wars. Then in 1920s their ties began to move on a new road of cooperation, which went on until 1952 when Turkey joined NATO against the Warsaw Pact. Since the breakup of the USSR in 1991, Russian and Turkish relations began to improve again. Russia is the ninth largest export market of Turkey, and Turkey imports most of its goods from Russia. Turkey also heavily relies on Russia for its natural gas. But these ties have taken a new turn during the Syrian war.
The Syrian conflict developed from peaceful protests against Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This was in 2011, the year of the Arab Spring. The conflict in no time transformed into a violent insurgency, which led to the formation of the Free Syrian Army. Rebel groups started fighting against the regime and were being backed by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordon, UAE, and Qatar. Assad was being backed by Russia, Iran and Lebanon. This war has almost killed 220,000 people, while half of the population has been displaced. The emergence of ISIS has fuelled it up.
Russia has militarily intervened in Syria because it wants Assad to stay. Russia’s involvement has challenged the US supremacy, and to secure its strategic influence in the region as it has already lost its allies like Saddam Hussain in Iraq, Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, and Victor Yanukovych in Ukraine. Hence, Russia looks as Assad as a key pillar to secure its strategic influence in the region. Russia has both military and economic interests in Syria, such as its Mediterranean Naval base at Tartus, which it aims to protect. This is the only base Russia has in the Mediterranean. Russia has been using its Su-35 air superiority combat jets for aerial surveillance, and its brand new, ship-launched Kalibr cruise missiles in the Syrian war. In this way, Syria is providing Russia with a backdrop to promote its most high-tech weaponry.
John J Mearsheimer’s “theory of offensive realism” suits this situation. It says that a superpower has to indulge itself into several disputes even when their involvement is not needed. Similar is the case of Russia that to prove its superiority in the Middle East, Russia needs to indulge itself in various conflicts and play the leading role.
Turkey, next-door to Syria, is against Assad. Due to regional security dynamics, Turkey could not isolate itself from the internal instability in Syria. Initially, Turkey did not get directly involved directly in the conflict, but the Russian participation escalated the situation, and in November 2015 Turkey shot down a Su-24 Russian jet on the Syrian-Turkish border, which escalated hostility between Turkey and Russia.
Since the Korean War, there had been no direct confrontation or rivalry between Russia and NATO, but the shooting down of the Russian jet could have had very serious implications for not only Turkey but also for NATO. But right now Russia cannot afford hostility with NATO, and it needs international support to legitimise its intervention. Nevertheless, Russia has imposed sanctions on Turkey that have gravely affected Turkey’s economy for more than $10 billion, as Russia provides a large exporting market to Turkey.
Turkey’s ultimate threat is the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which belongs to the YPG (People’s Protection Units) — the Syrian division of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), also listed as a terrorist organisation by both Turkey and NATO. Turkey fears from the gains of Kurdish separatists in the north; Kurds are also being supported by Assad and Russia for countering the Turkish threat. Russia has been providing military assistance to the Kurdish separatists, which can lead to ground invasion by Turkey in response. This would most likely take Turkish-Kurdish conflict in Syria to spill into Turkey, and once again reignite the long rumbling civil war between the Turkish government and its Kurdish citizens. Historically, Turkey has borne violence by her own Kurdish ethnic minority. Almost 40,000 people have been killed in Kurdish-Turkish clashes up till now. Turkey is concerned over the progress of the Syrian Kurds, which it fears would fuel nationalist dreams of the Turkish Kurds. The worst-case situation for Turkey would be that the Syrian Kurds lay down the foundation of their own autonomous state from Syria’s eventual remains. That is the reason why Turkey is putting more effort and force against the Kurds rather on attacking Assad’s forces or ISIL. While on the other hand, the US is supporting the Kurds against ISIS, which has further complicated Turkey’s position.
Turkey is providing asylum to 2.5 million Syrian refugees. Turkey will receive £4.6 billion in aid from the European Union, and Turkish citizens will get the privilege of free movement through the Schengen area. Syria’s condition is analogous to that of Afghanistan where different actors played according to their interests; in Syria different states are supporting different factions. As in the end Afghanistan was left in a mess, and Pakistan had to pay the cost of the internal instability of its neighbour in the form of terrorism, the situation is same for Turkey: the Syrian war is spilling into the borders of Turkey.
The Geneva Peace Talks on Syria were planned to be started on February 1, 2016 in order to establish peace between government and opposition groups under the patronage of the UN, but unfortunately, the talks were suspended only after two days. These talks were prepared under the International Syria Support Group Ceasefire Taskforce, intended to bring an end to the Syrian civil war. The UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan De Mistura invited the coalition of 34 groups, which were backed by Saudi Arabia, the High Negotiation Committee (HNC) and some opposition members backed by Russia.
The HNC did not include the Syrian Kurdish groups because of Turkey’s objections, the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant and the al-Nusra Front. The talks were supposed to be held on January 28, but the HNC refused to attend the talks, claiming the government had failed to impede the air strikes and blockades of rebels-held towns, and they also refused to release the detainees before the peace talks could start. The HNC warned that the increased military activities of government forces in the north of Aleppo would again suspend the peace talks. Consequently, Mistura delayed the peace talks to February 25.
It is necessary to bring the warring parties on negotiation table for bringing peace in Syria, and in this regard the great powers – the US and Russia — need to convince both the parties. It is important to note that peace is not possible until both government and opposition negotiate their differences. Until and unless they both don’t come on a common line, they can’t counter terrorist groups, like the ISIS, operating in Syria. They, therefore, need to cooperate with the UN and other powers in order to wipe out terrorist groups operating in Syrian territory. Moreover, the external actors like Turkey, Russia, US, Iran and Saudi Arabia, despite their divergent interests in the Syrian civil war, should keep their own interests aside and stop funding groups of their interests. Rather, they should all work in collaboration for putting an end to the Syrian civil war.
The writer is a student of defence and diplomatic studies at the Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi