The Afghan peace deal in Doha is done. Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State, thanked Afghanistan’s neighbours, including Pakistan, for their support to the process. Ironically, though not unexpectedly, Pakistan figured only once in Pompeo’s speech, although the entire process and its culmination on Feb 29 at Doha would not have been possible.
Does this reflect the grudge that the US establishment has carried on against Pakistan all these years?
The vibes are not very encouraging. The current US approach towards Pakistan stands out as duplicitous – clearly one of good cop bad cop.
President Trump is clearly acting as the good cop while some of his deputies and advisors at the State Department and the White House continue to blow hot and cold on Pakistan
On two public occasions during his recent India visit, President Trump, for instance, offered positive words on Pakistan as well signalled readiness to help in the Kashmir dispute.
I have a very good relationship with the Prime Minister Khan. Very good. We talked about it today at length, actually, and ……But there has been difficulty in Pakistan, and we’re seeing what we can do about it. Anything I can do to mediate, anything I can do to help, I would do.
So much for President Trump who in fact stunned his hosts with his positive projection of Pakistan. One could even discern his conscious refrain from naming Pakistan in response to two of the three questions which specifically mentioned Pakistan during his February 25 press conference at New Delhi.
But what do other officials such as Alice Wells and Lisa Curtis say on Pakistan and China? Not really very encouraging
They continue to look at Pakistan through the Indian lens, impressing on it to do more on the terrorism front. They continue to lump the Afghan Haqqani network to Pakistan, as an extension of the Pakistani security apparatus, overlooking that even the New York Times introduced Sirajuddi Haqqani, the latent Network’s leader, as the Deputy Taliban Leader for his opinion article in the same paper.
Also, they ignore that Sirajuddin has been part of the leadership that has consented to their peace deal with the US. How can they continue singing the old song now that the Taliban – terrorists of yesterday – have been, by implication, accepted as legitimate interlocutors for the peace deal and the impending intra-Afghan negotiations?
For most of these State Department officials China remains the biggest concern. They mince no words in touting India as their best ally in countering China’s growing influence in the region. And because Pakistan is close friends with Beijing, it remains an equally big concern, it appears, and receives a similar hostile treatment.
Of course it is easier to denigrate and pressurise an economically unstable Pakistan, embattled on many fronts. at the moment. This is what many US officials continue to do both publicly and covertly.
President Trump’s kind words on Pakistan and PM Khan notwithstanding, one could assume that, based on most of the experiences of the past two decades, Islamabad does not expect any let up in the hostile views of those key US officials who seem to be more given to the Indian narrative than to what their non-conventional President holds on the changing Pakistan. Unfortunately, many US officials in recent times have often tended to invoke issues such as the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and even Corona Virus as instruments of geo-politics.
As long as the Trump administration and his security establishment is guided by people who are largely invested in the anti-China-pivot-India-Policy chances for a qualitative matter -of-fact shift in bilateral relations appear grim.
As long as they continue to view Pakistan through the lens of their geo-strategic rivalry with Beijing, they are likely to encounter ever greater resistance.
Until key US officials stop regurgitating the decade-old Indian narrative on Pakistan, and avoid terror-support referencing to it, mistrust will keep vitiating the bilateral ties.
If the US fails in actively supporting Pakistan’s removal from the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FORCE), it will push the country even more closer to China, which has stood by it through all thick and thin.
So, the good cop bad cop US policy on Pakistan is likely to largely define the bilateral relations in coming months and years, with only a handful choices for Pakistan, the best among them of course is to smartly manage ties with Washington. Antagonising the sole super power of course represents no policy option. Nor should Islamabad sacrifice its time-tested partnership with China, where the goodwill as well as the intent of helping Pakistan is immense. Given the conflicting views of various Afghan stake-holders, the post Afghan peace deal process promises to be rocky and complex. It will put Pakistan’s diplomacy and its influence to a much greater test. More testing times ahead indeed.