Bells of peace are ringing in Kabul as United States signs a long awaited peace declaration with Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. It was a farcical drop scene as it was the same Talibanwhich Washington dislodged from Kabul after toppling their government soon after 9/11. By the time this agreementwas signed, the moneyspent by the United States has grown several digitsbeyond the initial estimate of$975 billion. When taking intoaccount theincrease in base budgets for the Department of Defense and the Department of Veterans Affairs, the actual cost can be guesstimated to surpass all previous approximations of expenditure.The United States kept pouring billions of dollars in Afghanistan while the climax turned melodramatic for Washington everywhere including in the Middle East which was outside the script.The bulk of the weary and vexed US tax payer’s money was injudiciously spent on coin (counter-insurgency) operations, meeting logistic needs of the US troops including, medical care, special pay and benefits besides throwing carrots to allies. Washington also ostentatiously contributed about16% of itsfunds spent on reconstructioneffort in Afghanistan. Thus carrots and sticks of counter insurgency and reconstruction campaigns continued side by side. The irony was that the effects of these expensive WHAM (winning hearts and mind) campaigns could not prove helpful as the ill-planned military operationsindifferent to local sensitivities continued to claim civilian lives; euphemistically called frequently occurring collateral damage. Almost half of the money spent on reconstruction went to structure Afghan security forces, including the Afghan National Army. However, as the war ends at least for now, these forces remain weak and vulnerable.
The war in Afghanistan-the longest war for the United States, began in 2001 with a quick win in December 2001, when the Taliban abandoned Kabul. The apparently quick winsturned sour long drawn game of thrones with an unending saga of aggressive military operations, carpet bombings, assassinations, collateral killings and failed political overtures unfolded one after another without any season of peace.
For Afghans this has come at a human expense about 15 times more than that of Pentagon. Pakistan sacrificed 80,000 lives in the background
Sparing the mini nukes, US dropped more lethal bombs and other explosives in Afghanistan than done during any other war. Despite the induction of more boots on ground (BOGs) and pumping full throttle dollars into the war, the Taliban continued to gain strength. Opium production quadrupled, Afghan security forces remained incapable, corruption thrived, and peace remained elusive for war beaten and poverty stricken Afghan populace as chapters of ISIS emerged.
Taliban continued to control a large stretch of areas and where they lost control to ISAF, they continued to contest belligerently. Thus, the United States could never gain full control of the war and the objectives adopted by military top brass furtherlingered on without meeting any success.Some experts on region may believe that at least, the Pentagon’s pressure served one purpose i.e. keeping Taliban under tactical and as well as strategic stress thus persuading them to agree for negotiations.Thus the US military may claim its success as wars are usually fought to bring the other side to table for a discourse towards acceptance of terms for peace. However, I believe that in US-Taliban scenario the cliché “war for peace” cannot be fully validated. It is established that it was not the mere military pressure on Taliban. Pakistan continuously played its diplomatic role to bring Taliban on negotiation table encouraging them to end the prolonged conflagration in Islamabad’s immediate neighborhood. The Langley guys were privy to the fact that Pakistan exercises immense influence in the region and Afghanistan not only falls in Islamabad’s ‘area of interest’ but is also marked on maps in Pentagon as Pakistan’s ‘area of influence’.Islamabad kept the engagements since it was completely understood both by military and civilian leadership in Islamabad that there is no military solution in Afghanistan. Thus, Islamabad continuously focused on political and diplomatic leverages and never lost sight of peace prospects in its ravaged neighborhood. Unfortunately, sensing Pakistan’s interests other players in the region also tried to extend their influence in Kabul. India particularly used the opportunity to launch offensive on every tier and front against Pakistan. China also entered Afghanistan with big ticket anchor investments. However, it was India which was making Islamabad sleepless and uncomfortable right in the back yard. It was complete a success for India when spies in CGO complex New Delhi managed to gain control of certain anti-Pakistan Taliban factions. It definitely threatened Pakistan’s interests besides creating an immediate internal security situation in Pakistan. RAW went too deep into Afghanistan operating with impunity against Pakistan. Islamabad had to face and fight a heinous design of terrorism actually conscripted by Indian spies and Taliban handlers in Afghanistan. Pakistan was feeling the heat of hostility on both the Eastern and Western fronts. What could have made the Indian agent handlers in Qandahar or Jalalabad happy that Pakistan was restlessly trying to stabilize the situation in FATA, Balochistan, Karachi at one time besides fighting every day battle in streets and close alleys in Urban cities. However, with the agreement reached, things have taken a good turn for Pakistan. Definitely this has put Delhi in a weaker position since it has made a huge investment in Kabul with potential of losing the good money after bad money. It is imminent for India to become irrelevant and lose its space that it used against Pakistan in days to come.
The final act of the play in this theatre of blood shows that the parties have now come to terms with a thread of agreement. However, the ink of this agreement has more than 2000 lives for the United States alone.For Afghans this has come at a human expense about 15 times more than that of Pentagon.Pakistan sacrificed 80,000 lives in the background.The United States will evacuate all its forces in the next 14 months while Afghan government will release over 5000 Taliban prisoners serving sentences and undergoing investigations in various prisons. The war seems to come to an end. However the challenge remains. Afghans have not been able to agree on disagreements in the history. The countries with interest driven investment will definitely continue to maintain presence as well as their space. Let’s hope that peace prevails and all stakeholders learn to coopt a peaceful future for the sake of Afghan and Afghanistan.
Writer is a versatile analyst and a speaker on contemporary issues