The attempt of Rodrigo Duterte, the president of the Philippines, to take his country closer to China is symptomatic of the waning influence of the United States in Asia. More and more countries in the Middle East are now moving away from the US orbit, as they no longer find the US to be a credible ally.
The US has, time and again, demonstrated that its policies are governed by its own national interests rather than any loyalty to its allies. One example is its strained relations with its long-time, strong ally Saudi Arabia, which was unhappy with the Obama administration’s signing of a historic nuclear deal with Iran. According to the deal, all economic sanctions against Iran were lifted when Iran agreed to freeze its nuclear programme.
In fact, the actual inflection point came when the US sent its troops to Iraq to oust Saddam Hussain, as the US government was wrongly led to believe, by their intelligence agencies, that Iraq was in possession of weapons of mass destruction. By invading Iraq, they set Iraq on a perilous course from which it has still not recovered. The invasion also gave rise to ISIL, a monster that is slowly spreading its tentacles in many countries.
When the Philippines elected Rodrigo Duterte as its president, he inherited a country that was virtually under the control of drug mafias. Duterte took some tough decisions to go after the drug cartels, and managed to eliminate many of those who were involved in the drug business and other criminal activities. His tough and ruthless actions are emblematic of a culture of dictatorship, corruption and violence that is prevalent in the Philippines ever since its independence in 1946. Successive presidents, barring two presidents, Ramos Magsaysay and Corazon Aquino, were involved in large-scale corruption and nepotism.
The efforts of Duterte to eliminate criminals and his large-scale human rights violations have received adverse comments from the western media, especially from the US. Duterte who was expecting the US and other countries to praise his efforts in going after criminals and restore law and order in his country felt that such ‘unwarranted’ criticism was a direct interference in the internal affairs of his country. In an interview, when asked how he would react if Barack Obama were to criticise him for extrajudicial killings of over 1,000 persons involved in drug trafficking and other acts of crime, he responded with abusive words against the US president.
Unlike his predecessors, Duterte is a tough and an honest leader who enjoys unbridled support from his countrymen based on his excellent track record as the mayor of Davao City. It is his reputation of being a tough administrator, his efforts in single-handedly going after criminals and bringing down crime rates in the city that won him not just people’s plaudits but also got him elected as the president.
Duterte had also managed to bring Muslim insurgents, barring a few fringe elements, to the mainstream. He has promised to eliminate the Islamist groups that were responsible for killing over 100,000 people since 1970. By his actions, he showed that at first he gave ample opportunity to insurgent groups and other criminals to integrate in society, and only when they failed to heed his advice he went after them.
On the South China Sea dispute, although Duterte’s country got a favourable verdict from the International Arbitration Board, he realised the futility of antagonising China, as he felt that a great deal could be gained from having friendly relations with its powerful neighbour. By his actions he has managed to negate the influence of US that wanted to bring international pressure on China over the South China dispute. The move is a radical departure for a country that has historically been the most dependable American ally in the Southeast Asia. This could also undermine Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” policy.
Duterte’s visit to China, at the invitation of the Chinese president, ushered a new chapter in China-Philippines relations. China has responded to Duterte’s overtures by assisting his country in various infrastructural projects. In an interview to Chinese media, Duterte has expressed his inclination to be part of the greater plan of China in Asia, particularly Southeast Asia. It appears that the Philippines president has decided to move away from the US influence by coming closer to China. This is corroborated when he asked his onetime ally to withdraw all its troops from the Philippines within two years.
However, the Philippines president by completely relying on Chinese leadership has exposed his country to great harm should the Chinese leadership refuses to negotiate with him on the disputed Scarborough Island. China has never conceded on its territorial disputes with its neighbours. This has been the sticking point when it comes to its relations with India, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines. The US Pivot of Asia policy would have safeguarded his country’s interests in the event of China adopting an aggressive policy with his country.
Apart from his foreign policy, Duterte is moving away from the democratic traditions of his country by ruling his country with an iron hand. His despotic behaviour has invited criticism both from within the Philippines and from the US. His repressive measures have muzzled an independent press and the judiciary. He has also virtually silenced all the opposition parties in his country.
If Duterte wants to go down in history as an able, honest and effective leader, he needs to remove all the shackles imposed on institutions, especially the press and the judiciary. He also needs to be careful about aligning with one particular country, and should instead maintain cordial relations with all countries, especially with its old ally, the US, to protect the interests of his country.
Lastly, Duterte needs to control his intemperate language that has created more enemies than friends. His topmost priority should be introducing economic reforms for millions of impoverished people of his country rather than wasting his energies taking potshots on his enemies and detractors, which would in no way serve his country’s interests.
The writer is a freelance columnist and political commentator