Many “democracies” face similar conundrums that could pose an existential danger to their future political coherence. This is not a new phenomenon. Nazi Germany could never reconcile its ambitions for “lebensraum” with reality and ultimately was crushed. The Soviet Union imploded because of an irrational political system.
Today, Brexit is an existential threat to the coherence of Great Britain because the nation is so irreversibly divided over whether to “remain or leave” that obtaining an acceptable political solution will almost certainly prove impossible. That will lead to a “hard exit,” the worst of all outcomes as Britain will still have to negotiate its future relationships with Europe. And the prospect of Scotland and Northern Island voting to leave the UK in order to remain in the EU would lead to England and Wales alone forming Great Britain.
In the United States, social and cultural issues that can be defined as including “guns, gays, God and gestation periods” are intractable and could be existential. The United States has a huge gun violence crisis now manifested in attacks against houses of worships and schools. First Amendment advocates believe there are virtually no restrictions on gun ownership. For better or worse, the phrase “well regulated militia” in the Constitution has been ignored in favor “the right to bear and carry arms shall not be infringed.” While there is no doubt that the Founding Fathers meant it was state militias that were guaranteed these rights as a way to check and balance the central federal government, this definition no longer seems to apply.
Fortunately, while homosexuality has been decriminalized and no longer outside societal norms, gay marriage is still not fully accepted by many and will be an election issue in 2020 as one contender is gay and married to another man. Extreme views of religion are becoming more coincident with partisan politics as Evangelists and fervent Jewish supporters of Israel flock to Donald Trump’s form of Republicanism. But the more divisive issue deals with whether a woman’s right to choose trumps a fetus’ right to life.
Several Republican led states have passed strong anti-abortion laws. These have been challenged in the courts. However, the issue is intractable. Those Americans who believe life begins at conception or at a stage when the fetus is viable outside the womb will never change their minds. Those who believe it is a fundamental right of women to choose likewise will not be convinced otherwise.
Perhaps the most divisive issue will prove to be climate change. As the issues noted are intractable, so too is climate change. Some believe that climate change and global warming are a hoax and not man made, instead reflecting changing weather patterns. Scientific evidence and fact are conclusive in that the earth is warming because of greenhouse gases. Ocean levels are rising as the polar icecaps shrink. Yet, the issue has produced political gridlock and will not be helped by the Green New Deal which will prove unaffordable in cleaning up the environment.
Why could these issues prove existential? In 1861, the tension between the authority of individual states and the Federal government led to their secession and a civil war. Suppose for example one of the states advocating strict anti-abortion laws dissented or California and its population of 40 million decided that Washington was simply not addressing climate change. What would deter these states from some form of secession from the United States?
How this would occur could take various formulations. States could choose to ignore or disregard federal law. That would go to the courts. But because the appeals courts are organized regionally, it is uncertain how they might find. Ultimately, the Supreme Court would decide. Still, states may not accept any verdict. Then what?
In these cases, what recourse would the Federal government have? Unlike 1861, use of the military would be highly unlikely especially since each state has its own national guard. Secession could take a different shape. As the president and his team ignore Congressional subpoenas, states could simply ignore federal laws and regulation and court orders. States could also sue the Federal government on the grounds it could take years to adjudicate each case.
Does this sound far fetched? Possibly. But as Brexit has effectively undone the United Kingdom, actions that take the more extreme sides of “guns, gays, God and gestation periods” are taking hold. Whether or not these movements are coincidental, considering that they might be harbingers of greater discontent and disunity in America cannot be discounted. And spillover into other democracies such as Pakistan where more extreme and violent practices of Islam are deeply worrying likewise should not be ignored as potentially societal threatening.
Dr. Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist. His latest book is Anatomy of Failure: Why America Has Lost Every War It Starts.
The writer can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.