Nawaz Sharif is back in prison after the expiry of six weeks bail on medical grounds, and yet the government seems to be in an impasse. This is a very unique time wherein the patrons of the current dispensation desperately need two bailout packages: financial as well as political. Unlike the past, the powers perhaps were never in such a tight corner to extract both the packages.
After much ado, involving removal of the finance minister, appointing IMF selected governor of the State Bank of Pakistan and chairman Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) they will manage to get the financial bailout from the IMF at the highest economic and political cost. Probably, the IMF will approve the loan before the publication of this piece. But the non-extension of Nawaz’ bail on medical grounds indicates that he is yet again unwilling to offer a political bailout to the militablishment.
Last year on December 2 , I wrote about Nawaz’ strategic silence, which at times was translated as expedient. In the current political and financial scenario it has indeed proved to be strategic because Nawaz and Maryam are playing their cards very carefully and effectively.
So far, the present government is only operating on Nawaz and Zardari bashing. Perhaps, it is a rare political case where the ruling party runs the government on a pattern of election campaign and election sloganeering to cover its own incompetence. But for how long?
Nawaz knew better than anyone else about the limitations of the patrons as well as the installed government, thereby going into a silent mode which has proved its viability now. In the first quarter, the contours were defining where the government was going. And now in the third quarter of its first year it stands exposed. The forthcoming budget and ensuing economic hardships may wane the remaining thin veneer. Thus, ‘Come September’ seems to be politically cool for the opposition, particularly for the PML-N, but silence beyond that can send wrong signals to the people.
So far, the present government is only operating on Nawaz and Zardari bashing. Perhaps, it is a rare political case where the ruling party runs the government on a pattern of election campaign and election sloganeering to cover its own incompetence. But for how long?
Prospectively, Nawaz learnt an important political lesson, particularly since 2006-7: vital political compromises, as committed by Benazir Bhutto in the form of the NRO, are more detrimental and dangerous than resistance. He also knows that such political deals boomeranged and could be used against the politicians in case of slight deviation. But save from a total ignominious political exit or physical annihilation, there is temporary hardship in resistance, as Nawaz is presently facing.
The recent change in the organisational structure of party indicates that Nawaz is still in resistance mode and has not succumbed to in-house pressure or persuasion for a deal or compromise. His first victory was the neutralisation of Ch Nisar and Shahbaz factors from the party without major cracks. If Nawaz had taken this decision immediately after the PTI’s 2014 sit in, the situation might not have deteriorated as it did. The strategy of the Nisar and Shahabaz duo torpedoed the political consensus by helping the militablishment, pushing the PPP to the wall in Sindh, thus widening the mistrust between the two political parties.
Though, Bilawal tried to control the damage and initiate some confidence building measures by visiting Nawaz Sharif in jail, keeping in mind the treacherous political history, it has yet to be seen how much that could bridge the gap.
In the aftermath of his visit to Nawaz Sharif in jail, Bilawal stressed the need to reemphasis the Charter of Democracy (CoD), which is a call of the time. However, this also needs a renewed commitment not to use democracy as a cover for getting power crumbs. Instead, the primary consideration should be the need to make sacrifices for the cause of democracy. For that Bilawal should also cover his Achilles Heel.
Certainly, exhortation is easier than execution. Clearly the war of nerves will intensify against constitutionally legitimate political candidates by the powers to be that are ready to use more spurious tools to bust the tempo of the political movement. Terrorist incidents and threats similar to post 2006-7 can be used to curtail political mobilisation, but the silver line is that people are more aware now of such tricks than they were a decade and half ago.
The only prerequisite is a consensus on a one point agenda of civilian supremacy and not to stab each other for short term gains. The politicos, particularly the PML-N and PPP, once again have a chance after a decade and half to renew and enforce the Charter of Democracy in letter and spirit.
The writer is a freelance journalist