Paul Young dare not sing his chart topper “Love is in the Air” in the rarefied air of Kashmir over Puna Tander where the ill- fated MiG 21 Bison flown by bewhiskered Abhi Nandan, crashed after being shot down by a Pakistani fighter aircraft. The Indian reflex action of Balakot foray, much in the nature of a paroxysm of rage by an aggrieved college bully, had probably failed to assuage the anguish of humiliation felt by the Indian war planners whose attempt at creating an elusive space for conventional war had apparently come a cropper after downing of two fighter jets. It was only a matter of time when the Duval driven destabilization strategy manifested itself as a reprisal to the valiant self defence by Pakistani pilots. It manifested itself in an orgy of violence on 17th April on the coastal highway at Buzi Top near Ormara. Eleven security forces elements mostly belonging to Navy were martyred by the terrorist BRA elements operating from their bases across the Pak-Iran border.
. Modi-Duval doctrine of fomenting an active insurrection in Balochistan was writ large on the act that hearkened ominously back to a doctrine of destabilization of Balochistan by the local and foreign proxies of RAW-NDS combo. The operation of RAW agents from Chabahar in the past in pursuit of Duval doctrine was exposed by the nabbing of Kulbhushan Yadev, a serving Indian naval officer in Balochistan. The terrorist organizations like BRA that are operating from across the Pak-Iran border and are being supported by Kulbhushan like operatives are a constant reminder of the long war that has been foisted upon Pakistan. The use of terrorism and asymmetric tactics by the states to bleed the opponents by thousand cuts is the quintessential Duval doctrine. Ruefully the doctrine has been adopted with alacrity by communal bigots sitting in the catbird seat in India.
The maturity, gravitas, and stoic forbearance displayed by Pakistani state and media after 17th April attacks was in sharp contrast to the jingoistic petulance displayed by the Indian state and media after Pulwama attacks. What is the reason for this apparent unreasonableness of India? The answer lies in the global politics wherein Indians as regional surrogates of USA are encouraged to foment unrest inside Pakistan. Indians have no incentive to make peace with Pakistan in the presence of active encouragement by a dominant global power that once patronized Pakistan as a bulwark against communism. There are therefore external actors determining the Indo-Pak relations without whose support the relationship between the two countries would always remain under stress. The interests of international establishment were on display right from the time of India’s partition as Pakistan was coopted in the “South Asian Monroe” doctrine to contain Soviet Union.
A tit for tat response in the asymmetric warfare mode is well within the capabilities of all countries nowadays and India should realize the perils of exporting terrorism from a base with exploitable vulnerabilities
Ayub Khan who was earlier passed over by Messervy because of his bad report in Burma campaign by the legendary General Officer Commanding 19th Division, Pete Rees was promoted by Gracey when after death of Major General Iftikhar, it was decided to elevate him as the first native CinC. International establishment encouraged Iskander Mirza-Ayub Khan duo and helped lay the foundations of a Garrison State where the military ruled the roost while the politicians played the second fiddle. The objective was to use Pakistan as an outpost against the communist juggernaut while keeping the non- aligned ambitions of Nehru led India in check. The story has been reversed now but the string pullers remain the same. If Indians had not been encouraged as an anti- China regional gendarme the saner elements in India might have found peace more suitable than constant confrontation in their national development cost-benefit equations.
India has unleashed a reign of terror against Pakistan through its proxies like TTP and BLA/BRA in KP and Balochistan provinces of Pakistan respectively. India is using Chabahar, Herat, Kandhar, Jalalabad, Zaranj, Mazar e Sharif and Farkhor to export terrorism through its proxies. The Ormara attack on coastal highway once considered safe for travel has underscored the emergence of the new wave of terrorism against Pakistan, actively supported by RAW and NDS. The threat of such attacks would result in enhanced security measures adding protection costs to routine activities besides discouraging participation of foreign investors in the Gwader. A tit for tat response in the asymmetric warfare mode is well within the capabilities of all countries nowadays and India should realize the perils of exporting terrorism from a base with exploitable vulnerabilities.
T.V Paul’s book, “Asymmetric Conflicts: War Initiation By Weaker Powers” examines six conflicts i.e Japanese offensive against Russia 1904, Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour 1941, Chinese intervention in Korea 1950, Pakistani offensive in Kashmir in 1965, Egyptian offensive in 1973, and Argentine invasion of Falklands in 1978 and identifies some interesting factors that contributed towards decision by weaker states to resort to asymmetric warfare. As per the author when the disparity in power is so much that the stronger power sees no advantage in conceding diplomatically, the seeds of an asymmetric war are sown with the weaker country resorting to some drastic steps through asymmetric warfare to effect a change in the behaviour of the stronger adversary. In Bueno de Mosquita’s “The War Trap” the clout and interests of influential world powers are cited as one of the three main variables shaping the bellicose behaviour of the regional powers, serving as their interest watchers in the region. It is time India came out of the war trap laid by the interests of the global world powers for a potentially lucrative yet intrinsically harmful strategic relationship. Countries like India need to grow out of their dependence syndrome and eschew confrontational policies in the region, at the cost of her regional relationships and prestige amongst the neighbours. The next century belongs to Asia with Asia-Pacific emerging as the global center of economic gravity. India instead of pulling apart should gravitate towards that center rather than fighting proxy wars of attrition with smaller neighbours. In nuclearized environment the resort to politico-military brinkmanship is fraught with chances of an accidental conflagration. The Modi-Duval redux evidenced by Ormara and Quetta attacks through proxies therefore needs to be rolled back by India’s, lest a new wave of asymmetric warfare lit up a prairie fire leading towards a nuclear holocaust.
The writer is a PhD scholar at NUST