Trump recently roasted United States (US) Intelligence Chiefs – calling them “extremely passive and naive” – on their remarks on dangers from Iran and advised that “perhaps intelligence should go back to school”.
Earlier, a US intelligence team appeared before the US Senate and briefed the panel on global threats to US national security – including an assessment that Iran is not currently developing any materials that can produce a nuclear device.
Trump, or as I like to call him, Mr. Twitter quickly backtracked from his initial punitive rile on US intelligence after meeting spy chiefs in his Oval office – putting all the blame on the media for mischaracterising the Senate hearing. He ended up saying “I value our intelligence community”.
But he remained unvoiced on the most critical comments by Daniel Coats, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), on expanding and diversifying threats to US national security from China and Russia in the coming years.
A Worldwide Threat Assessment report warned that China and Russia seek to expand their global influence particularly in East Asia and Middle East. They are more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s and their relationship is likely to strengthen.
Though the report gave the same traditional assessment that the US is facing a number of threats to its security from varied nations, mainly from China and Russia – however the most derogatory note in the testimony was that the US is losing the trust of its allies. It added that some US allies and partners are seeking greater independence from Washington in response to their perceptions of changing US policies on security and trade and becoming more open to new bilateral and multilateral partnerships.
In implementation of his ‘America First’ mantra, Trump is extensively pursuing to improve the US economy by withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and Syria; negotiating a nuclear deal with North Korea; limiting the US role in the protection of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and other gulf states; and building a trilateral alliance with Japan and South Korea in East Asia against growing Chinese influence.
As a result, and to the ire of the US military, some of the US’ close allies in the Middle East – Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and YPG in Syria – are warming towards China and Russia for their national security rudiments.
Worldwide Threat Assessment report warned that China and Russia seek to expand their global influence particularly in East Asia and Middle East. They are more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s and their relationship is likely to strengthen
After the Saudi King’s visit to the Kremlin, Saudi Arabia has increased its interest for Russian-made military equipment, particularly S-400 defense systems. If Saudi Arabia proceeds with the S-400 deals with Russia, it would be major blow to the $15 billion potential deal with America for US Lockheed Martin’s THAAD missile systems. Both sides have also agreed to cooperate in nuclear energy, agriculture, information technology, trade, investments, and social developments.
Since December 2017, Saudi Arabia has opted to abstain from the UN resolution on Russian military intervention in Ukraine. In exchange, Putin declined to criticise the Kingdom on the Khashoggi killing stating Russia “cannot start deteriorating relations” with Saudi Arabia.
Also, China has been the largest trade partner of Saudi Arabia since 2013, while Saudi Arabia has been the largest crude oil supplier to China from 2000 to 2015, for 16 consecutive years. In 2017, bilateral trade reached about $50 billion between the two countries.
After the King’s visit to China in March 2017, China and Saudi Arabia signed multiple cooperation agreements worth of $65 billion. Just recently, Saudi Arabia became the first country to join China’s Belt and Road project.
Xi Jinping’s visit in mid-July 2018 bolstered ties between China and UAE as well. Trade between the two countries was valued at $55 billion in 2017 whereas China’s investments in UAE reached $9.1 billion by 2017.
Qatar stepped in to rescue Russian Rosneft after it was hit hard by the US sanctions over Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and bought 18.93 percent stakes of Rosneft for $12.2 billion. The Qatar Emir also paid 2-day visit to China on January 30 and signed various MOUs.
US ally India entered into the Afghanistan fray only to undermine Pakistani interests and influence. In order to seek a greater role in the region, India abandoned its decades-old ally, Russia, to embrace the US.
But the US-Taliban peace dialogue and Trump’s surprise announcement to withdraw troops partially from Afghanistan drove India into clutter. It is much frustrating for India that all the stakeholders in Afghanistan have ignored to count on its views. Resultantly, India is completely isolated from Afghanistan conflict resolution.
Meanwhile, amid US-China trade tensions – the historically strained relations between China and Japan have significantly improved as Sino-Nippon agreed on everything from currency swaps to ocean rescue, playing down the disagreements. In October 2018, Abe became the first Japanese prime minister to visit Beijing in seven years.
In August 2018, Trump complained that the United States is subsidizing US troops in South Korea, Japan, and Saudi Arabia. As the five-year deal on cost-sharing between South Korea and the United States expired in 2018 – the US has demanded 50 percent increase (to $1.2 billion) to cover the expenses of its military base in the country.
A South Korean lawmaker strongly reacted to the US demand, summoning it ‘sudden, unacceptable’ proposal. If the rift sustained and the US decides to withdraw its troops, South Korea, as well, could align towards China and Russia to protect its security needs.
The other problem US is facing that it wants to establish a trilateral block with South Korea and Japan to counter China. But the tensed relations between South Korea and Japan are the core hitch to the US strategic interests in East Asia.
United States has long hoped that the two countries could sort out their conflicts and assist the US in containing China’s expansion plans through trade. Nonetheless, the bonds between South Korea and Japan have repeatedly crawled from one to another.
While the US fails to forge a partnership with South Korea, interestingly a counter-alliance, Sino-Korean-Japanese is evolving. A setback to the US hopes, on December 6 and 7 – China, South Korea, and Japan held fourteenth round of negotiations on free trade agreement (FTA).
Although most of the Americans shouldered Trump into the White House over his skepticism on the US international alliances and unilaterally withdrawal from Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Paris Agreement, and Iran nuclear deal – but they are now recoiling their support for Trump on trifling or culminating US engagements internationally.
In a poll conducted by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs in October 2018 – 70 percent of the Americans said that the United States should take an active part in the world affairs – 7 percentage points increase from 2017’s survey.
An overwhelming majority of 91% respondents said that it is more effective for the United States to work with allies and other countries to achieve the US foreign policy objectives. Only 8% favored that the US should tackle this at its own.
US INTELLIGENCE IS DEAD RIGHT!
In the backdrop of the ripening global and regional dynamics – the US intelligence is dead right when it perceives that China and Russia are steadily increasing their global influence, particularly in East Asia and Middle East.
The US intelligence did not falter either, while citing that many of the key US allies are tracking more reliable partners in the form of China and Russia over changing US policies. China and Russia, on the other hand, are quickly cashing on the US-bred vacuum.
Undoubtedly, the US military perceives substantial threats to the United States interests from the emergence of China and Russia as the rising global powers – so it does not endorse Trump policy to trim the US involvement in the global affairs.
The author works in a private organization as ‘Market & Business Analyst’ and shares his thoughts and opinions with the global audiences on domestic, regional, and global issues
Published in Daily Times, March 1st 2019.