On 4th of August the nation came across the enrapturing news that Exxon-Mobil was close to hitting mega oil reserves that will surpass the oil reserves of Kuwait in size.
The writer had already imagined himself behind the wheel of gas guzzling convertible V8 Ford Mustang cruising down M2 he called a friend who is working at an oil and gas firm to make plans about buying his dream car in the near future as Pakistan is to drown in a deluge of Petro-Dollars very soon.
Unfortunately, the voice on the other side of the phone was bland and devoid of an alacrity, which proved to be a rather ugly twist that shattered the writer’s dreams. His friend told him that may be Care Taker Minister for Maritime Affairs Mr. Abdullah Haroon was misled by his subordinate staff or he misconstrued what the staff had briefed him about.
Not giving up so easily on his dream, the writer and his friend decided to delve deep into the issue and they got their hands on the latest activity map and report which is issued monthly by DGPC-Directorate of Petroleum Concessions. A thorough examination of the map and report transpired that as of now there are no exploration activities being carried out by any company near or adjacent to the Pak-Iran border. The only source behind these towering claims was an aerial survey which can not substantiate presence of oil reserves, the only information it can provide is about structural orientations.
It is pertinent to mention here that oil exploration is an intricate and daunting task which includes processes like 2D and 3D surveys followed by geo-physical analyses, even then one cannot claim to have found oil reserves until and unless the test wells start producing crude oil because there are plethora of examples where results of surveys and test wells contradicted each other. So to put the record straight the chances of hitting any mega oil reserves right now are equivalent to hitting nothing at all.
There must be a difference between the statements of an average social media user who can post anything he deems appropriate on his account, and those holding prominent positions in echelons of power as the public considers this information as authentic
Although the Minister has tried to eat a humble pie by shifting his stance from “is about to hit” to “hopefully will hit”, the intriguing part is that how can he state something which is not corroborated by actual facts and figures. As a corollary such sweeping statements can have a negative impact on businesses, especially in a multi-billion-dollar industry of oil and gas.
Ironically, this is not the first time in Pakistan that statements have been made without prior deliberation. In 2015 the then Prime Minister Mr Nawaz Sharif claimed that we have found huge gold and copper reserves in Chinot, which could help the country wave its good-bye to the infamous begging bowl. Today hardly anyone remembers the promises of this discovery.
Similarly, not long ago our Permanent Ambassador to the United Nations Ms. Maleeha Lodhi held up a picture of a girl in the UN General Assembly while speaking about the atrocities committed by the Indian state in Indian occupied Kashmir, later on it was debunked that the picture was of a 17-year-old Palestinian girl injured by a shrapnel in an Israeli attack and the rest is history.
Now with high spirits the nation has embarked upon a new mission. We are going to build dams by collecting donations but have we considered that collecting 1.4 trillion rupees like this is a gargantuan task?
There must be a difference between the statements of an average social media user who can post anything he deems appropriate on his account and those holding prominent positions in echelons of power as the public considers this information as authentic. What sort of a message are we conveying that, in Pakistan the only thing which is certain is uncertainty, where every now and then castles of sand are made and forgotten.
The point of concern is that instead of learning from our blunders we tend to stick to the same plan time and again. The current situation can aptly be described in words of George Satyana; “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
The only way out of this vortex is to consult specialists, before stating anything or taking initiatives the feasibility reports may be furnished and then discussed at length. Unequivocally it is impossible for a single person at the top to cross examine and process all the information, so the people who are responsible for briefing the top brass should work diligently and make sure that things are elucidated in a crystal clear manner.
The nation is tired of brushing the dust under the carpet, now the time has come for us to wake up and make sure that we do not accept lollipops anymore. Pakistan has witnessed some drastic changes lately which is a prelude to idyllic times ahead, it is hoped and prayed that the nation will not be given false hopes for sake of political expediency by the upcoming government of PTI and they are successful in burying this culture of irresponsibility.
The writer is a Geophysicist.
Published in Daily Times, August 15th 2018.