A couple of days ago, a young Pakistani journalist called. He was writing a report on the forthcoming elections. Apart from seeking my views on the election result, he had two specific questions. First, of late, Shahbaz Sharif, COAS, and even Imran and Zardari have commented on the desirability of improving relations with India. Is that a question that the entire political leadership has agreed upon, and does it have the military’s support. Second, are issues of foreign policy significant to the election campaign?
Let us take the two specific questions first. After Kargil, Musharraf, also reached out to India. Being the architect of Kargil, his overtures were understandably suspect and, therefore, unsuccessful. Gen Kiyani too, reached out to India but, for some inexplicable reason, he was inaccurately billed as anti-India. Raheel followed suit but he was, perhaps, considered too threatening by our own political leadership.
Now Bajwa has also expressed his willingness to support talks. Perhaps the stark contrast between the threatening policies of Modi’s team and the Pakistani approach have resulted in his offer being taken more seriously than that of his two immediate predecessors.
I am of the view that, after the Kargil fiasco, the politico-military leadership in Pakistan reached the sensible conclusion that, learning to live with India is the preferred option. And, in doing so, improved relations, however minimal the improvement, should be the aim. If one is living in a hostile neighbourhood, one can sell the house and buy another, elsewhere. But, a nation-state cannot relocate itself. Since it cannot, reduced hostility should be the interest of both.
Issues of foreign policy have never been significant to electioneering in Pakistan. In fact, I do not think there has been an active, or even a semi-active foreign policy in Pakistan, since Ayub Khan’s era — not even under Bhutto. And the last government? It didn’t think that foreign policy deserved a full time supervisor; an adviser to the PM sufficed
Pakistan has, consequently, with a varying degree of warmth and enthusiasm, been making overtures to India for well over a decade and a half. For a variety of reasons, including Mumbai, these have met with indifferent success. It seems, however, that is not what Modi has in mind, not as long as he is around.Pakistan must needs wait and see what the next election in India throws up.
Issues of foreign policy have never been significant to electioneering in Pakistan. In fact, I do not think there has been an active, or even a semi-active foreign policy in Pakistan, since Ayub Khan’s era; not even under Bhutto. And the last government? It didn’t think that foreign policy deserved a full time supervisor; an adviser to the prime minister sufficed.
In Pakistan, election issues for the common man are simple. These revolve around one crucial question: who is most likely to give them a better quality of life. Which brings us to the basic question of the likely result in the forthcoming elections. I have no great words of wisdom here. Most analysts are probably at the same position as I am.
Of the three major parties, the Pakistan Muslim League — Noon (PML-N), Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the last has suffered the most by way of political setbacks in the last decade. However, PPP is the party that has best generated employment. In this election, it seems unlikely to bag enough seats to form the central government. The race is between the PML-N and PTI. Despite Im the Dim’s supreme confidence and in spite of the desertions that PML-N has suffered from, I place the chances of either of these parties bagging the most seats in parliament at par.
But neither is likely to have enough seats to ensure a vote of confidence based on only its own members. The next government is almost certain to be a coalition built around either of the two major competitors.
Few have asked me my preferred outcome. Those who have are invariably surprised. With PML-N deprived of the services of Nawaz and Ishaq Dar, whose disastrous policy of propping up the Rupee has brought us to the present ignominy, I am inclined towards a coalition built around PML-N and PPP.
Yes, indeed. These two parties have competed as to which is the most corrupt. But, now we have a hyperactive judiciary playing the Watchdog over corruption. And, the judiciary has GHQ’s support. That kind of corruption is highly unlikely now.
Of late, the most destabilising factor has been Nawaz. He has already made clear that were his party to lose, he would take to the streets and seek the “people’s verdict” on his judicial ouster. If he manages to rouse the crowds, any suppression with violence is only likely to worsen the situation and, once that happens, it is on a self-escalatory ladder.
More importantly, the PPP had the most courageous stand against terrorism, compared to the pusillanimous PTI and PML-N; a stand still needed in government. The religious parties were always apologists but these two disgraced themselves by their cowardice. On the other hand, PML-N, despite Ishaq Dar, has been the best economic manager so far, and Punjab is still the best run province.
I am aware that Imran has not yet been tried but, by proxy, he has, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). There is no denying the improvements in KP. But there is also no denying where there have been none or marginal betterment. PTI could and should have done lots better. Had Imran run the province himself and, had he delivered, who knows? I might even have been (hopefully) rooting for him.
PTI is still likely to take KP but, I will be surprised if it is not with a fall in both the aggregate votes and the number of seats. If the election results prove me correct, I will consider my views vindicated, despite my angry friends. If I am wrong, I will await future consequences with bated breath.
The writer is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
Published in Daily Times, June 24th 2018.