I had decided not to comment on Trump’s latest tweet; too many were already doing so. Moreover, I had said my bit. No point in repeating it ad infinitum. Yet many others are of the opposite persuasion. Thus they prefer to continue wasting time as they attempt to shame Trump and the US over recent duplicities. Namely, the latter is privy to the fact that both Mangal Bagh’s Lashkar-e-Islam (LEI) and Mullah Fazlullah’s Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) are funded and hosted by the Afghan government. The latter is, of course, encouraging them to attack Pakistan from secure bases across the Duran Line. This is not just well known: it’s an established fact.
If the US has decided that the containment of China is a top national priority, it will also know that Beijing’s main vulnerability in the west comes from its restive Uighur population in Xinjiang; which is prone to Islamic militancy. The other strategic ‘threat’ comes from the fact that all its ports lie to the east; where American naval bases abound. These can interdict not only military maritime movement — but also commerce. This is where CPEC comes in, for although it is an economic Corridor it also serves as a vital alternative. After all, there is no US potential for interference here.
Yet if China and CPEC are to be destabilised, Afghanistan represents the ‘ideal’ location from where Islamic extremism can be exported in multiple directions. That is, directly to Beijing before heading north to Central Asia from where it directly threatens Russia; a Chinese ally and a challenger to US hegemony. The risk of militancy may also turn back towards the Middle Kingdom from numerous trajectories. And Afghanistan is a great launch pad for all of this because Islamic extremism will filter through in any case. This will also be the thorn that contains CPEC.
We suffer terribly from a flawed understanding of the causes, implications and consequences of international developments; so much so that we are still looking to kiss and make up and somehow crawl back into bed with the US.
My American friends tell me that I give Trump’s Trumpeteers too much credit. Nevertheless, I firmly believe that even the likes of Mattis and Tillerson could cobble this together. And if they do, history will likely remember Afghanistan as little more than a footnote; the collateral damage of the US polices of containing China and destabilising CPEC. The only piece missing from this picture here is our leadership’s realisation that we are no longer incidental victims but, rather, intended ones. Such awakening is needed if we are to have a truly comprehensive reappraisal of the bilateral relationship, possibly leading to a more radical policy change.
The Chinese leadership, for its part, travels a path that is never unplanned. Meaning that if it is prepared to go as far as pushing for the Yuan to join the dollar, GBP, the Euro and the Yen as an internationally recognised trading currency — we may be sure that the challenge to the US is conscious and has been well thought out. Whereas here in Pakistan we suffer terribly from a flawed understanding of the causes, implications and consequences of international developments; so much so that we are still looking to kiss and make up and somehow crawl back into bed with the US. If we continue with our denial about why this is no longer feasible — we will lose momentum and with that the all other alternatives. Be that as it may, some of our leaders always manage to demonstrate a pitiful pettiness that is beyond pathetic. For while some in the world are taking time out to ponder recent events, particularly here in this region — those who manage our national affairs have more important things to worry about; such as wondering whether they look sexier in maroon or blue socks.
Needless to say, Imran never ceases to amaze me. He is in all probability too naïf a simpleton to understand the profound implications of his spurious accusations of military involvement in the alleged rigging of the 2013 elections. But surely even he is aware of the currency of his personal popularity among the speculative social media crowd. Yet when asked a straightforward question about his third marriage, can he not give a similarly straightforward answer?
No sirs. He must smile meaningfully while gesturing insinuatingly. Not merely prompting but, in fact, actively encouraging media investigation and conjecture. Now, we all know what this means. The media will lick its lips and dig in until it uncovers something juicy. Which it invariably will, to the point where the miserable and ghastly Rana will be prompted to make unseemly comments; which of course Imran will lament. Had he just given an honest answer, all of this lasciviousness would have been avoided.
And just see how times have changed. Even the man with an oily and unctuous smile — Zardari himself — is found deploring corruption among politicians! Sadly, making mention of that infamous kettle calling the pot black seems woefully inadequate to capture the sheer audacity. Indeed, such levels of hypocrisy deserve an idiom of its very own. I wonder if ‘the snake calling the lizard slimy’ might suffice.
As for the Sharifs, I really have given up on the elder one. By rights, he should be the last person bemoaning the ‘establishment’s’ involvement in politics. Especially considering that he himself is a creature whose entire political career was nurtured by the latter. Indeed, he has been a ladla. And although I am quite certain that today’s establishment has no such individual; even if it did, Sharif the elder should be the last to complain after having deliberately, and with considerable effort, manoeuvred himself out of favour. But these people specialise in short memories, tall claims and false promises.
The greatest irony is that Sharif now accuses Imran of being the establishment’s and judiciary’s ladla. This despite the fact that, not so long ago, the latter was pleading, nay begging, for “third umpire intervention” and the establishment refused to oblige.
Finally, our judiciary? Isn’t that also sub judice? This institution is assuming the role of the bully on the block. And it will face the same problem as the erstwhile establishment. Meaning that the more it interferes in matters beyond its normal purview, the more vulnerable it will become. A lesson that appears not so easy to learn. Which is why the jury is still out. One afterthought: if everybody stopped writing about the cretinism of prominent idiots — there would not be much left to write about each week. Let alone to simultaneously laugh and weep over.
The writer is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI).
Published in Daily Times, January 14th 2018.