Over the years, climate-induced disasters have intensified globally, forcing millions to migrate in search of safer living conditions. Pakistan is no exception to this. The country contributes to less than one per cent of Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG), yet is consistently ranked among the ten most climate-vulnerable nations in the world.
In 2025, the monsoon season was marked by heavy rainfall and massive landslides. Riverine flooding in the Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab Rivers submerged parts of Lahore city. Despite being vulnerable to rapidly changing climatic patterns, Pakistan still lacks a dedicated legal framework for the recognition and social protection of climate-induced migrants. There is speculation that by 2050, approximately 2 million Pakistanis will be permanently displaced because of climate-induced disasters.
To address the challenge of climate change and its disastrous impact, there is a need for a conceptual shift. In Nomad Century, Gaia Vince argues that climate change operates as a threat multiplier and exacerbates other social, environmental, and economic vulnerabilities that populations already face. Fire, heat, drought, and flood, “the four horsemen of the Anthropocene,” will transform our world this century and make it unlivable (Vince). However, her main provocation is not one of despair.
For Vince, migration is not the crisis but is the solution. She insists that the problem lies in the way governments and societies have historically framed human movement as a threat to be contained rather than an adaptive strategy to be managed. Thus, there’s a need for the reconceptualisation of climate-induced migration in Pakistan consistent with this framework, as a potentially planned adaptation strategy rather than a symptom of policy failure.
There is speculation that by 2050, approximately 2 million Pakistanis will be permanently displaced because of climate-induced disasters.
To navigate this reality, we need urgent actionable policy shifts at different levels to replace the current reactive system, which is failing the most vulnerable. On the international level, bilateral funders such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) must assist developing nations like Pakistan in expanding their fiscal capacity to invest in social protection and adaptation through monetary support and grants.
Regionally, different forums like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) need to include climate migration into their agendas and potentially establish a framework for cross-border migration. Lastly, at the domestic level, we need to revise our urban planning policies to develop climate-smart towns and cities to offer safe housing, alternative employment, and basic services for the impacted populations.
Additionally, already existing social protection initiatives like the Ehsaas programme must be expanded to include the displaced. Most crucially, there needs to be a rights-based approach. The idea essentially is that we cannot treat climate migrants as mere passive recipients of aid. They need to be empowered as active participants in planning and shaping their own futures. In practice, this just means that our policies need to deliberately prioritise women and marginalised groups. This also includes actively integrating local and indigenous knowledge into our climate response frameworks.
It is also important to acknowledge that the steps are already being taken in the right direction. The Climate Refugees Rights and Protection Bill 2024 was officially tabled in the National Assembly, proving a growing demand for a structured and legally binding framework. Passing this bill is the essential next step.
If enacted, it would make Pakistan the first country in the world to legally recognise and protect climate refugees, transforming us into global environmental pioneers. We may be at the receiving end of the devastating consequences of a climate crisis we did not create, but we can no longer afford to just sit and wait for help. It is time we take control of our own resilience because ultimately it is our responsibility to build our nation’s capacity so that our own populations do not become a burden.
The writer is a student and works as a Research Intern at Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)