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Dr Zia Ul Haque Shamsi

Dr Zia Ul Haque Shamsi

Dr. Zia ul Haq is the author of the book 'Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan'. He has worked as the Director of the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies.

The Curse of a Fragile Peace

Published on: July 15, 2026 7:56 AM

July 15, 2026 by Dr Zia Ul Haque Shamsi

When the official signing ceremony of a peace deal and framework agreement between Iran and the U.S., planned for June 19, 2026, at the Bürgenstock Resort, Switzerland, was suddenly converted into an electronic signature, I suspected a bit of mistrust between the stakeholders. Pakistan and Qatar did a great job in getting that done but fell short of a solid foundation for further talks, which were necessary for a durable peace in the region.

The ceasefire, which came into effect with the signing of the ‘Islamabad Memorandum’ on June 14, 2026, had little promise, in my view, and the same is being proved with some serious violations from both sides. Short of saying that the war has started again, it will not be an exaggeration.

Notwithstanding the mistrust the two sides have, there is an apparent lack of understanding about the entire situation among the major stakeholders.

One, the U.S. think it can tame Iran and get what it wants. Two, Iran thinks it can successfully endure U.S. attacks it has imposed with its sanctions.

Three, Israel knows exactly what it is doing.

Four, the peacemakers, Pakistan and Qatar, think they can convince the two sides to stop fighting and talk seriously.

Five, the other regional countries are too focused on their own security and losses from the Iranian retaliation. Six, the other global powers are not fulfilling their responsibility to stop the war and help in the peace process, even though each one is affected due to energy supply.

International and Regional Organisations are absent from their primary duties of maintaining and sustaining peace and stability across all regions.

Seven, International and Regional Organisations are absent from their primary duties of maintaining and sustaining peace and stability across all regions.

If one dives deeper into the causes of continuing wars and conflict in the region, this list can go beyond the scope of this short article. Here, the purpose is to highlight the need to attain, maintain, and sustain peace and stability in the region that has already been in the course of a fragile peace since the end of the Cold War.

Coming back to my list of at least seven points above that highlight the lack of understanding of the gravity of the situation and need immediate attention.

The U.S. must understand that it is not its war because Iran is not a direct or indirect threat to its security in the region and beyond. Moreover, Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan, which can be occupied by ground troops for years before making a hasty withdrawal. To top it all off, it is not in the best U.S. interest to invest its resources in this war at this time when Russia and China are challenging its sole superpower status, with the European Union shying away from supporting the U.S.

Iran, on the other hand, must understand that it has endured nearly five decades of economic hardship, sacrificed its spiritual, political, military, and scientific leadership, alongside its children and noncombatants; it is time to reflect on cost-benefit analysis and make a doable peace deal that gives the people some respite.

The Iranians understand better than any other nation, but at this time a very hardline approach may be counterproductive. The regional peacemakers, Pakistan and Qatar, must be trusted and given a little more leverage to cut a win-win deal for all major stakeholders.

Likewise, all other regional states which have faced Iranian retaliation must put their weight behind Pakistan and Qatar in peacemaking and must not think that it is time to cut Iran to size.

In my opinion, none of the stakeholders will benefit from this war if it continues beyond the present stage. However, the states which are not directly participating may have the last laugh at the disastrous consequences of this needless war.

Let’s go back to the golden words of Andre Gromyko, the longest-serving Cold War Foreign Minister of the erstwhile Soviet Union, who said that ‘Ten years of talk is better than one day of war.” Let’s not waste the efforts of Pakistan’s positive diplomacy to bring the stakeholders to the table and also give credit to Qatar for its relentless effort to accomplish a complicated framework agreement. Let’s give peace a priority over war and let diplomacy find its way to achieve a sustainable peace agreement rather than a fragile framework agreement that keeps getting violated every other day.

Remember, a war only serves the Military Industrial Complex (MIC); therefore, make an effort to achieve peace that can serve humanity and not only a few war-making machines.

The writer of this article has authored four international books: Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan, South Asia Needs Hybrid Peace, Understanding Sun Tzu and the Art of Hybrid War, and Diplomacy and Deterrence.”

Filed Under: Op-Ed Tagged With: Curse, fragile peace

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