Having wandered with pen in hand, as it were, across much of the globe in our recent quest to grasp the current geopolitical environment — it’s now time to turn our attention inwards to better understand the prevailing implications for Pakistan and our available options. We are, of course, mindful that our foremost concern must be domestic instability, both political and terror-related. However, since this is not our focus today, I will assume this problem is being addressed.
As per my two previous pieces, one thing seems certain. Those who have vested interests here in our South Asian backyard as well as the Middle East are: the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel and India. And as long as we are left to their tender mercies — Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran will be destined to remain in a state of insecurity for some considerable time to come.
This leaves us asking the million-dollar question: what, if, anything can be done? A few Americanisms spring to mind here. One of which I have taken a liking to is, ‘wiggle-room’. For even if one is strapped to a chair, there is always a little room to, well, wiggle.
It may well appear that we have been left little space to manoeuvre. But each of us, in our unintended gang of three, has some wiggle-room available to us. We just have to try and combine this. Which brings us to the real question of whether Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran can wiggle together; in harmony for the collective good.
I certainly think so. Provided we confront the two-fold challenge presently facing us. Firstly, we will have to convince each that not only is our future tied together as if by an umbilical cord; but that as neighbours, we each stand to benefit. And then, secondly — and this is the trickier part, though if we are successful here the rest will be a walkover — we have to persuade each other that the threat to our security is a collective one and that unless we stand together, we will all fall down.
And it is Pakistan that can be the conduit to achieving this. We, after all, have the ear of the Chinese, who also, by the way, would be the principal beneficiaries of ‘Operation Wiggle’. Yet it will not be all plain sailing. Meaning that if we go ahead we will have to make some hard choices. Iran and Saudi Arabia, as we all know, sit on opposite sides of the fence; and it is becoming precarious for us to straddle the latter for too much longer. From our very inception, have we been psychologically tied to Riyadh.
If Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran are serious about regional security, they will have to learn how to wiggle together. Yet for this to happen we will have to persuade each other that the threats to our stability are a collective one. And it is Pakistan that can be the conduit to achieving this
Yet while it is true that the Saudis have frequently helped bail us out financially — the Kingdom has also been the greatest contributor to our current state of insecurity. To be clear, when I aver the foregoing, by no means do I imply that we are absolved of blame. Ultimately, it was our fault; most of all, perhaps the Army’s. But the principal actor exporting extremism to us and the region was, and remains Riyadh.
Afghanistan and Iran border us to the west. Being our neighbours, their security situation impacts us directly. Moreover, if we can provide Kabul access to the sea that would be good for us, too. The country remains our sole passage to Central Asia, unless we rely on the indirect route through China.
Iran can provide us with the oil and gas we desperately need; and not only this, it will be our will be by far our cheapest option given that these can come our way by an overland pipeline. In addition, China would also like to see Tehran join the CPEC club and step forward as another energy supplier.
Undoubtedly, Saudi Arabia’s resources on this front far exceed those of Iran. But, if my assessment of the situation in the Middle East is even partially accurate, the Kingdom is going to end up making the entire region, including itself, insecure.
This is to say nothing of whether or not Riyadh will still have immense wealth to squander with its new and ambitious ruler, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, at the helm. Iran will prove the most affordable energy supplier in more ways than one.
The Army chief’s three-day visit to Tehran has served to thaw much of the big freeze that had loomed large between the two countries. Though, naturally, far more needs to be done. While we must have zero tolerance for any military or militant transgression coming from either Afghanistan or Iran — any retaliatory strikes from our side should be seen as avoiding civilian casualties.
The pipeline project should be fast-forwarded with the proviso that the Chinese be included. Then Tehran should be invited to join CPEC, thereby improving people-to-people contact. This being said, the greatest scope for mutual shared benefit rests in education. Meaning that not only should we encourage teacher and student exchange programmes — all Pakistani universities should be encouraged to offer and accept scholarships to and from Iran as a matter of national policy.
I have repeatedly attempted to explain that what we see as ‘Afghan’ animosity directed towards us is, in reality, confined to Kabul. However, our recent crackdown on our western neighbour has eroded much of the goodwill that ordinary Afghans feel for us. Our visa policy is ‘unsympathetic’, to say the very least. Our approach to accommodating Afghans seeking medical treatment or education at our institutions is, if not actually inhumane, doggedly uncooperative. Thus what is needed is a drastic improvement on all these fronts; even if it means accepting some security risks. But in order have all these suggestions, and the many more that remain unsaid, effectively materialise — we need to have a national rethink in terms of foreign policy; as well as a realignment of our real national interests, not those of our leaders only.
Moreover, while still seeking not to alienate some of our traditional allies for the interim, we must begin preparing for the future when Pakistan will no longer be able to straddle the fence; a time not in the too distant future. And this rethink must identify our forward direction when we are no longer so precariously perched.
The writer is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
Published in Daily Times, November 26th 2017.