The party is over — that is, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. It was done with fanfare, though it was widely expected to deliver a thumping endorsement of Xi Jinping, who is now in the same league as Mao Zedong. It was sad to see his predecessors, Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin, trailing behind Xi in the staged procession on the dais looking like pathetic figures from a distant past. At one time, in the TV pictures, Hu Jintao sought to talk to XI about something or the other but he just had no time for his immediate predecessor.
From all the accounts of Xi’s great achievements in the past five years he has been the general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and president of China, it would appear that the intervening period between Deng Xiaoping’s death and Xi’s ascension was time lost. And before the party conference, there was a lot of build up to highlight all these achievements. Indeed, an advertising supplement from Chinese authorities in the Sydney Morning Herald featured a report of an entire exhibition at the Beijing Exhibition Hall on September 25. The report said, “The exhibition showcased the country’s progress over the past five years under the leadership of the CPC with Mr Xi as the core.” With Xi at the ‘core’, he is now the personification of the CPC and, for that matter, the state because the two tend to be indistinguishable. And he has a Dream to make China great again.
Xi Jinping now has his own, “Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” enshrined in the Party constitution. And this will be: “A guide to action for the entire party and all the Chinese people to strive for.” And with this as a guide, China will achieve global leadership by the middle of the century, with CPC still at the helm of affairs. There will be none of this ‘nonsense’ about western democracy, human rights, freedom of speech and other sentimentality. China will strive for social stability and orderly growth.
China has undoubtedly made great economic strides. But it is necessary to keep a balanced perspective, as pointed out by the governor of the People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiochuan, who has reportedly said, “If we are too optimistic when things go smoothly, tensions build up”
In his speech to the National Congress, Xi sought to broadly lay down China’s trajectory. He said that now that China had met the basic needs of its people, it would next work to become a ‘great modern socialist country’ and, by 2035, a global leader in innovation. A second phase, of becoming a global leader in “national strength and international influence”, would take until the middle of the century.
This will go hand-in-hand with China making the transition from rapid growth to high quality development. This would mean integrating advanced manufacturing, internet, big data and artificial intelligence into the “real economy.” There was no mention of the other China of nearly 500 million people, about 40 per cent of China’ population, that live on less than $5.50 per day, according to the World Bank.
China has undoubtedly made great economic strides. But it is necessary to keep a balanced perspective, as pointed out by the governor of the People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiochuan, who has reportedly said, “If we are too optimistic when things go smoothly, tensions build up, which could lead to a sharp correction, what we call ‘Minsky moment’”, referring to the late American economist, Hyman Minsky who cautioned against too much money in the system fueling speculation that might lead to financial collapse. Zhou said that China’s debt was very high. According to the World Bank, China’s overall debt to GDP ratio, both public and private, was 304 per cent. Which led financial rating agencies, Moody and Standard and Poor to downgrade China’ sovereign debt rating.
Be that as it may, China is determined to push ahead. In the area of the global fight against climate change, for instance, Xi promised a ‘revolution in energy production’ by building an energy sector that was ‘clean, low carbon, safe and efficient’. At a time when US President Donald Trump is disregarding climate change and open markets, China is promoting its credentials.
Xi was very emphatic on the question of safeguarding China’ sovereign interests with a modernised military. He said, “No one should expect China to swallow anything that undermines its interests…”, like China’s ‘steady progress’ in construction of islands in the South China Sea. Dwelling on China’s ‘core’ national assets, Xi issued a warning against Taiwan’s independence in any form.
Within the country, he announced the continuation of the anti-corruption campaign, which has helped to get rid of his political foes.
And as of now, with the Party Congress now over, Xi is the undisputed ruler of China, with a Standing Committee and Politburo ready to do his bidding. Indeed, he has not even chosen or announced his political successor who, by convention, should succeed him after his second term, in 2022. Which has legitimised the view that Xi should choose to stay on as the CPC’s General Secretary and the country’s president for an indeterminate period.
During Xi’s presidency, what has perhaps attracted most attention internationally is his much trumpeted One Belt, One Road project which aims to connect the world through a network of road, rail, air, and maritime channels. It is the new vision to revive China’s glory as part of the Chinese dream, with China once again as the Middle Kingdom. With China prepared to lend money, expertise and workers for many of these incipient projects, it has excited interest among some countries.
In the case of Pakistan, for instance, China’s plan for its 15-year infrastructure roll out, as Dawn’s Khurram Husain wrote, (as quoted in the Sydney Morning Herald), is “a deep and broad-based penetration of most sectors of Pakistan’s economy as well as its society by Chinese enterprises and culture.”
The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia
Published in Daily Times, November 7th 2017.