Pakistan is said to be an agrarian country, but this sector is stuck in a cycle of crises. This year, the wheat crop is facing a serious setback. According to estimates, wheat production is expected to drop to 29.7 million metric tons, a decline of 3.5 million metric tons compared to last year’s output of 31.1 million metric tons. This production level falls significantly short of the country’s consumption requirements, raising concerns about food security.
According to reports, part of this crisis is attributed to environmental conditions, particularly below-average rainfall, and the more important cause is rooted in the absence of government support and flawed policy decisions. Wheat, being heavily reliant on rainwater, suffered due to dry weather during the growing season and untimely rains during the harvest, which damaged ripe crops in several regions.
More than the climate, the greater damage comes from systemic neglect. Last year, farmers were hit hard by the government’s fixed wheat price, which was too low to cover their rising production costs. Fertilizers have become prohibitively expensive. A bag of urea that once cost Rs 1,800 now touches Rs 5,000.
In the absence of support prices, farmers are abandoning wheat cultivation.
The government’s refusal to set a reasonable support price, under conditions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to cut subsidies, is a decision that devastates wheat growers. Although last year’s yield was relatively good, the financial return was disappointing, and yet the government has chosen to maintain this fixed pricing policy this year as well. The decision has fueled immense frustration among farmers, many of whom feel cornered and betrayed.
In the absence of support prices, farmers are abandoning wheat cultivation. Many are switching to alternative crops, those that offer better market rates and less government interference. This is not just an economic shift but a representation of growing frustration and abandonment felt by the backbone of Pakistan’s agricultural sector.
This transition has far-reaching implications. Small-scale farmers, who make up the backbone of the agricultural sector, are especially vulnerable. Farmers, who take months to cultivate nations stable grain are finding themselves at the losing end of this system and dependence on middle man (arhtis) add insult to injury. Many farmers find themselves trapped in a vicious cycle of loans, debts, and diminishing returns. Wheat that was once sufficient now teeters on the edge, This shortage must be addressed urgently before we walk into full full-blown wheat crisis.
The government keeps on defending its policy of wheat price control by arguing that it is essential for managing inflation and ensuring food security. By fixing the price of wheat at artificially low levels, authorities claim they are protecting the common citizen by giving them affordable rates for roti. But the ground reality tells a different story. Hotels and tandoors are shrinking the size of roti and compromising its quality because flour is becoming more expensive, while the government insists they sell at fixed low prices. As usual, the lower-income class continues to suffer.
The government’s obsession with low roti prices is more about gaining political mileage than creating sustainable solutions. It makes for a good headline and a label. A wheat farmer’s product is being politicized, his sweat undervalued, and his future jeopardized.
Meanwhile, elite industrialists with access to subsidies and powerful lobbies continue to thrive under the very system that is breaking small farmers who do have not this affluence. The growing disparity between rich feudal landlords and struggling smallholders is increasing resentment in rural areas. The government recently allowed interprovincial wheat movements that was banned last year.
Issue with government’s top-down approach to policy-making. While making such policies, Farmers must be taken in confidence, not behind closed door, benefiting the tiny elite. This exclusionary decision-making results in policies that do not reflect ground realities and further alienate those they are meant to serve. Ignoring farmers when crafting agricultural policies is unfair. The people most affected by these policies are the ones who are never consulted. Smallholder farmers should be included in policymaking processes so their challenges are addressed before crises escalate.
By ignoring the voices of small farmers, the government risks pushing them away from wheat cultivation permanently. This will have far-reaching consequences. As more farmers switch to other crops, annual wheat shortfalls will become the norm and an agrarian economy will be forced to import wheat to meet domestic demand.
The Pakistan Kissan Rabta Committee (PKRC), a coalition representing small farmers across the country, has announced a nationwide protest scheduled for April 13. They are demanding, the restoration of a fair support price for wheat, a reduction in input costs (especially fertilizers), and an immediate halt to corporate farming under the Green Pakistan Initiative. The PKRC argues that corporate farming-backed by elite business groups, will result in the marginalization of small farmers limiting their access to resources and pushing them off their ancestral land. The protest movement is gaining ground, with mobilization countywide. and if their concerns remain unaddressed, this could evolve into a bombshell.
Pakistan’s agriculture, particularly its wheat sector, needs urgent, farmer-focused reforms. Support prices must reflect actual production costs and allow farmers to make a reasonable profit. Targeted subsidies for fertilizers and seeds should reach those who need them most. Creating platforms for farmer consultation would lead to more inclusive, practical, and accepted policy solutions. The standing committee of food and agriculture, headed by politicians, is of no use. Representation of grassroots farmers in agricultural committees is critical if the government genuinely seeks reform.
By fixing price, government disturbs dynamics of demand and supply, there should be free market system that will alow prices to be set by actual market condition ,not by political motives. Government should reconsider its priorities and move towards respecting their autonomy and restoring dignity to those who feed the nation.
These protests are a wake-up call. The government must decide whether to continue prioritizing elite interests and their political optics or finally stand by the people who grow the food we eat.
The writer is a freelance columnist.