Nawaz Sharif was caught in a perfect storm—a calamitous situation arising from powerful combined effect of a unique set of circumstances. No Pakistani agency or institution usually associated with conspiring to oust elected governments in the country seemingly had any hand in uncovering of the Panama Papers scandal. The job was done by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ).
The Panama Papers, made available to the public on April 3, 2016, included details of eight offshore companies and revealed that Sharif’s children Maryam Nawaz, Hassan Nawaz and Hussain Nawaz ‘were owners or had the right to authorise transactions for several companies’. Mossack Fonseca records linked the children to four offshore companies – Nescoll Limited, Nielson Holdings Limited, Coomber Group Inc., and Hangon Property Holdings Limited. The companies had acquired luxury real estate in London from 2006 to 2007. The real estate was used as collateral for loans of up to $13.8 million, according to the Panama Papers.
Nawaz Sharif’s sons immediately admitted to owning the luxury flats, while his daughter denied that she was one of the beneficial owners of the flats. Sharif himself went public denying that tainted money laundered from Pakistan was used in the purchase of the flats and insisted that he had all the documents to back up his claims.
PTI Chief Imran Khan found the Panama Papers scandal a godsend to mount a relentless campaign to force Nawaz to resign, accusing him of using public money to purchase private flats in London. The confrontation led Imran and Nawaz to the Supreme Court. After having heard the case – essentially a probe to trace money trail that led to the purchase of the flats – for over 250 days, the SC has found Nawaz guilty on evidence mostly produced by a specially constituted six-member Joint Investigation Team (JIT). The JIT included a member each from ISI and MI.
In retrospect, it is clear now that during the hearing of the case and the JIT probe, the more Nawaz and his family had tried to wriggle out of the jam the more they found themselves sliding into the hole. They failed to prove that the flats were purchased with clean money not laundered from Pakistan and the JIT had also found them to be living beyond their known means of income.
Now that Nawaz has resigned and he and his family face further probe by the NAB, their political future appears to be doomed for all times to come, while the ruling PML-N also faces an uncertain future. The party is already confined to one province – Punjab – and is made up mostly of electables who usually do not waste their time on losers. Most are likely to jump the ship and go to PTI and the diehard anti-PTI among them would perhaps prefer to join the PPP come next elections. Meanwhile, the PML-N is expected soon to elect a new prime minister to muddle through the remaining nine months or so before the next general elections. If its any consolation for the Sharifs, the party is expected to make significant gains in the Senate after the Upper House polls scheduled in March 2018.