NA-120 is turning out just as surprising for PML-N as the events leading up to it; well, almost as much. It’s not just that PTI has been gaining momentum all through the JIT process and Nawaz’s subsequent dismissal, now a number of right-of-centre religious parties have also lined up their candidates for the by election. This hits the party in two ways, at least.
One, it thins the vote base. The same number of people will now vote for more people which, at best, means victory by a smaller margin than before. And two, the right-of-centre religious lot was, till the last election at least, part of the core PML-N constituency. Now, with Jamaat-e-Islami, Milli Muslim League, Labbaik Ya Rasul Allah party, etc, also competing, clearly not all the mullah lobby votes will go to Begum Kulsoom Nawaz.
And it didn’t help, of course, that she had to go for urgent throat cancer surgery just when she had been nominated to contest in her husband’s place and NA 120 was beginning to light up. The double whammy could have assumed yet more threatening proportions for the ruling party, rather family, had it not been for heir apparent Maryam stepping into her father’s, and mother’s, shoes and taking the lead in the campaigning.
Sure, for appearances sake if nothing else, the government is running just fine with Khaqan Abbasi at the helm. Talk of fiddling all through the system and installing Shahbaz as interim PM, just so the prized seat stays within the family, has also fizzled out. Yet the brothers still keep tight control over matters, and not many big decisions can, quite clearly, be taken without their consent.
And with Kulsoom unable because of the serious illness, and Nawaz naturally by her side, the campaign would have been in complete freefall had it not been for the daughter. Those doubting her credentials should have seen party workers thronging to Data Darbar and almost crashing the stage just to be close to her. If she’s drawing such reaction at the start, while she’s running a solo show, she’ll definitely be a much bigger draw at the next election.
More importantly, she’s already stamped her authority on the audience. Now, no matter what her detractors say, she will be a much bigger force to be reckoned with in the next electoral cycle, wherever the chips land for PML-N. Perhaps her seemingly natural connection with the people comes from her experience of handling the party’s media cell these past few years. Even if from behind the information wall, she was constantly connected with people across Pakistan. And, right from the initial dharna days, she’s come out the strongest, and the most articulate (along with her namesake Maryam Aurangzeb) defender of the party position.
The faux pas at the church should have been avoided, but she, and the church, quickly adjusted posture and it’s more for the latter to control the damage — in its own constituency — than Maryam
Other prominent party spokesmen, unfortunately — even those now elevated to important ministries — are not exactly known for their finesse when engaging the press or the people, and are called the party loudmouths with good reason. Even if many questions about the future of PML-N — immediate and medium term — remain unanswered, it can be said with confidence that Maryam has grown, in not much time, to become a big part of its present. In fact, right now she is the brain and face of the party, at least till her father is comfortably back in the saddle.
The only freak flank attack that can still take her out is a poor show during the NAB investigation that has been ordered by the Supreme Court. Hopefully the Sharif family, Maryam included of course, would have learnt by now the futility of making claims that cannot be backed in court, and then hiring weak lawyers to make a strong case.
The first real verdict will, of course, come on Sep17, but so far it’s hard to fault how Maryam has carried herself. The faux pas at the church should have been avoided, but she, and the church, quickly adjusted posture and it’s more for the latter to control damage — in its own constituency — than Maryam.
The bulk of the momentum has already been generated as far as NA 120 is concerned, though a lot will always remain to be done in this line of work. Tackling the mullahs going here and there in an NA 120 election, instead of directly towards PML-N, is a novelty that would have tested even the senior Sharifs. And it’ll test Maryam. But, again, the proof of the pudding will lie in the eating. And it’s not very long before the results will be out.
Remember this is Nawaz Sharif’s seat. Even winning by a much reduced margin will not wash with the party or the electorate. And Maryam has had to come forward where the mother, again, is unable to make her own case and the father is also too far to give real time guidance.
The writer is the Managing Editor Daily Times, tweets @yourafiq and can be reached at [email protected]
Published in Daily Times, September 10th 2017.