The latest round of talks between the P5+1 and Iran resulted in a historic deal between the negotiating parties, especially the US and Iran. The interim deal that curbs further development in Iran’s nuclear programme in return for limited relief from nuclear-related sanctions is likely to be a preliminary draft of the final accord, which would ultimately settle the dispute about the programme. Despite Israeli premier Benjamin Natanyahu’s immediate response to the deal as a “historic mistake”, the US (Israel’s major ally) has shown its willingness to cooperate with Iran. Iran, on the other hand, now appears in a weaker position than even before and thus ready to make a final deal to get rid of sanctions that have caused a massive setback to its economy.
The history of Iran’s nuclear programme stretches back to 2002, when an Iranian dissident group, the National Council of Resistance (NCR), revealed the existence of two undeclared nuclear facilities at Arak and Natanz. Since then, the nuclear venture of Iran has remained a core issue in international politics. The US and its allies, especially Israel, continuously strove to push Iran away from pursuit of highly sophisticated nuclear capability. Nevertheless, Iran managed to enrich uranium at several undeclared facilities. In fact, former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continuously dissented from the agenda of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and continued his self-defeating strategy of offensive political rhetoric. As a result, the Islamic republic has faced several rounds of UN supported sanctions and has kept trying to manage its highest inflation rates in political isolation. However, now, Hasan Rouhani’s rise to the presidency in Iran has enhanced the chances of peaceful resolution to this quagmire.
Hopes of peaceful resolution to this conundrum have been increased after President Rouhani’s ascent to power because he has been the chief negotiator and representative of Iran on its nuclear programme. In 2003, he successfully negotiated with France, Germany and the UK (EU-3) in order to make sure that this group would oppose any attempt to report Iran’s non-compliance to the UN Security Council (UNSC). Now, there is a good deal of optimism throughout the Iran-readers’ circle that Iran and the world powers will be able to reach a win-win solution soon, especially after this agreement. There are multiple reasons for this stance.
First, the US has shown a positive gesture to Iran for the first time since the Iranian revolution. President Obama’s speech at the UN and his emphasis on “regaining mutual trust” clearly depicted his soft tone towards Iran. This change in tone indicates a strong desire to forge a breakthrough. In addition, Secretary Kerry, besides making the Geneva-based talks purposeful, seems ready to make a suitable environment for normalisation of bilateral relations. He, in fact, put forward his request to Congress that the legislative authority should not support a new round of sanctions, as it would ultimately destroy “a historic opportunity to forge a nuclear pact”.
Secondly, Iran has also given a progressive signal with respect to its nuclear programme after a long time. The former president did not miss any opportunity to criticise Israel and the US. He even went ahead and called the Holocaust a fairy tale, which brought him a worldwide wave of condemnation. In this regard, President Rouhani is a mature and seasoned diplomat. He has been successful in avoiding offensive statements; in fact, he congratulated the Jews (on Twitter) on Rosh Hashanah, a sacred day for Jews. In addition to his pro-diplomacy and political approach, he has been praised worldwide on clarifying Iran’s agenda in the UN. He said at the UN that his country “is ready to engage immediately in time-bound and result-oriented talks to build mutual confidence and the removal of mutual uncertainties with full transparency,” and stressed that “peace is within reach”. He has already made it clear that Iran will not give up its legal right to enrich uranium but it will nonetheless never pursue nuclear weapons. Although this line has been repeated by the Iranians a hundred times, the difference now is Rouhani’s apparent dedication to greater transparency and cooperation with world powers.
Thirdly, tough economic conditions are also an important aspect, ultimately compelling Iran to move ahead in a comprehensive resolution of this conflict. Rouhani does understand that his country cannot continue in the way of Ahmadinejad’s regime. The Islamic republic is struggling under an unbearable burden of economic sanctions that have been imposed by a majority of the great powers, either unilaterally or multilaterally. The Iranian rial has lost almost three fourths of its original value, and its oil exports have been continuously falling since 2011. High inflation rates and decreasing exports are undoubtedly bad omens for every economy. Exacerbation of sanctions in combination with increasing unemployment will ultimately lend to political instability in the theocracy dominated republic and may pose serious challenges to the regime.
Fourth, the threat of an unexpected attack on nuclear installations is another strong reason to convince the Iranian leadership to pursue a peaceful end to this stalemate. Israel, the only nuclear-equipped country having the most powerful and advanced military forces in the region, has already conveyed its concern to the international community that it might feel compelled in attacking Iranian nuclear sites once it gets confirmed that the Islamic republic is pursuing the path to nukes. On the other hand, chances of US surgical strikes are also undeniable especially if intelligence agencies confirm Iran’s intention to attack Israel or even its pursuit of nuclear weapons, although the recent developments in Geneva have reduced the importance of this option. Still, Israel will not miss any chance if Iran does not show commitment to the final accords in these six months. However, now, the Iranian leadership understands this dimension pretty well and will ultimately go for a deal to move ahead.
After a decade of stalemate, both parties have come to a point where this conflict will resolve itself after the employment of a give-and-take methodology. After speeches and a meeting between their high-level diplomats, both President Rouhani, his team and the Obama administration in coordination with the other permanent members of the UNSC and Germany, have a clear understanding of what can and should be achieved to resolve the nuclear crisis in everyone’s best interest. In addition, it seems that the US is now prepared to concede some favours. Despite facing criticism from Israel and Republicans in the Congress, the US now seems ready to permit Iran to continue limited enrichment activities permanently (up to five percent), but under strengthened safeguards. Yet the future of dispute heavily depends upon the response of the Islamic republic in the coming months.
The writer is a visiting scholar at Ball State University, in the US, and can be reached at [email protected]