Irrespective of the results of the referendum, the Greek crisis is approaching a denouement. It is a turning point for the working class of Greece and the whole of Europe: the failure of capitalism in Greece to sustain a social welfare state and develop society. The hypocrisy, lies, vengeance, greed, callousness and retrogressive character of the European bourgeoisie have been laid bare by the viciousness of its attacks on the working classes. Behind the facade of ‘European democracy’ and ‘solidarity’ lies the dictatorship of banks and big businesses. The rest is a fraud and a lie. The left wing Syriza government was literally pushed against the wall to call a referendum to reject austerity measures, including cuts to pensions and public sector spending as conditions for additional funds from the ‘troika’ of the IMF, the EU Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB). Ninety percent of the money from previous bailouts went to European banks, particularly in Germany and France.
Bourgeois analysts at JP Morgan were unambiguous: “We expect the referendum to vote in favour of accepting the creditors’ proposal. Our base case is that Tsipras steps down as prime minister and a unity government is formed, which negotiates a deal with the creditors.” The response of the government was to impose a bank holiday lasting until July 7 during which people can withdraw 60 euros a day. Capital controls to prevent any outflow of money from the country have been enforced. For the duration of the bank holiday, public transportation in Athens will be free.
Troika representatives from Angela Merkel to Lagarde and Schäuble insisted that the earth was going to crack and Greece would plunge into hell if the Greeks dared to vote no. They accompanied these threats with punitive actions. Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis was expelled from the Eurogroup meeting. The ECB’s move to cap liquidity aid to Greek banks was politically motivated to force the Greek government to close the banks and impose capital controls. They wanted to create a situation of economic chaos and dislocation, promoting panic buying, magnifying problems at ATMs, creating scarcity of basic food products and medicines, etc: i.e. a deliberate campaign of sabotage.
The referendum cannot be won at the ballot box alone but through mass mobilisation in the streets. A young Greek woman interviewed by a Spanish television channel said: “I feel like I was entering a revolution, like we are going to show them what we are capable of.” Greek people perceive this as a chance to deliver a blow against the Troika and capitalism.
On June 27, there was a series of moves exposing the fears of imperialism. The IMF’s Christine Lagarde issued a statement in favour of talks and debt relief. French President Hollande expressed himself in similar terms. US President Obama called Angela Merkel: “It is critically important to make every effort to return to a path that will allow Greece to resume reforms and growth within the Eurozone.” The US and other imperialist strategists are clearly worried about the impact of a disorderly Greek default for the European economy and, ultimately, the world economy. Their worries are very real. Despite all the talk about the EU being now “insulated” against the impact of a Grexit, the truth is that European economic recovery is extremely fragile and any shock can propel it back into a deeper recession.
The leader of Syriza said that if there is a strong no vote, an agreement could be signed. However, the ‘institutions’ will not and cannot make an offer that allows for the implementation of Syriza’s programme. Making concessions to them is useless. For every step back Tsipras takes, they will demand 10 more. It is not possible to reconcile irreconcilable contradictions any more than it is possible to square a circle.
The only way for the government to have the money to pay for wages and pensions and keep basic state functions running is by seizing the banks, wealth and assets of the Greek and foreign bourgeoisie. The need to bring key sectors of the economy under collective ownership is a concrete necessity. Exit from the euro might be necessary and perhaps inevitable at this stage, but there is no solution on a capitalist basis. The restoration of the Greek currency, the drachma, on the basis of capitalism would immediately mean a massive devaluation, trade restrictions by imperialists, hyperinflation and catastrophic economic decline. The events of recent days have confirmed what the communist tendency of Syriza has argued all along: “An honourable deal with the troika is not possible nor can an extremely weak Greek capitalism fulfil the democratic mandate of the people to put an end to austerity.” There is a fundamental contradiction between capitalism and what the Greek people want after seven years of brutal cuts and frightful collapse in living standards.
However, the idea of a deal with the troika and accommodating the programme of social emergency measures has been proved terribly wrong. This explains the apparent vacillations of Tsipras and the Greek government. They do not have an alternative plan. They want to remain in the EU but without austerity. The whole experience of the last five months proves this to be a utopia. If there was any doubt, the last week should have dispelled it.
The main office of Syriza in Athens has a portrait of Rosa Luxemburg on its wall. Rosa Luxemburg, the great Marxist internationalist and revolutionary, martyred in Berlin in 1919, wrote just a few months before her brutal assassination: “It is sheer insanity to believe that capitalists would good-humouredly obey the socialist verdict of a parliament or of a national assembly, would calmly renounce property, profit, the right to exploit. Even if the leadership has failed it can and must be recreated from and out of the masses. The masses are the decisive element; they are the rock on which the final victory of the revolution will be built. The masses were on the heights, the pride and strength of international socialism. And that is from where the future victory will bloom. ‘Order reigns in Berlin!’ You stupid henchmen! Your ‘order’ is built on sand. Tomorrow the revolution will already raise itself with a rattle and announce with fanfare, to your terror: I was, I am, I shall be!”
Time is running out for the Syriza leadership. They have a choice to make. It is written on the title of Rosa’s most famous work, Reformism or Revolution.
The writer is the editor of Asian Marxist Review and international secretary of Pakistan Trade Union Defence Campaign. He can be reached at [email protected]