Pakistan’s residential sector is the country’s major energy consumer. According to the International Energy Agency, the sector consumes approximately 52 per cent of Pakistan’s overall energy sources. This tendency runs counter to worldwide spending patterns; for example, in India, this proportion is 27 per cent, in China, it is 16 per cent, and in the United States of America, it is 18 per cent. To accomplish the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and energy security, it is necessary to discuss the composition, patterns, policy goals, and next steps for energy use in Pakistan’s residential sector. The major fuels used in the residential sector are driven by energy services. These services include cooking, transportation, cooling/heating, and lighting. The residential sector consumes 89 per cent of total biofuels (mainly used for cooking), 52 per cent of total electricity (used for lighting and cooling/heating), 40 per cent of total natural gas (Cooking and heating), and about 70 per cent of the oil/petrol in terms of transportation fuel.
SDG 7 is to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern fuels for all. To achieve this goal, decision-makers are required to probe the consumption patterns of all the fuels used in the residential sector and gauge the affordability, reliability, and sustainability of these fuels.
Firstly, biofuels (firewood, animal, and agricultural residuals), are the most used fuel source in Pakistan and perform mainly one energy service-cooking. There exists an area-based disparity in the consumption of biofuels. According to the Pakistan Standard of Living Measurement Survey, in terms of cooking, biofuels are the major fuel for cooking in the residential sector in rural areas, where 60 per cent of households consume biofuels (firewood, animal, and agricultural residuals), this ratio is about 10 per cent in urban areas. Alarmingly, this share is increasing over time in rural as well as urban centres. Biofuels are affordable in Pakistan; the majority of them are either gathered in the form of wood or obtained from animals and agricultural residuals. The average national price of firewood was Rs 850 per 40kgs before COVID-19, currently, it is Rs 1,027 per 40Kgs registering a price growth of 20 per cent. In terms of reliability, firewood and residuals are considered low-efficiency fuels. The sustainability of biofuels in Pakistan is directly connected with the problems of deforestation and indoor pollution. Although biofuels provide a cheaper source of cooking fuels, cleaner alternatives such as natural gas, electric stoves, or modern solar-powered stoves are the way forward.
Pakistan’s sustainable future in the energy sector depends on renewable energy and modern sources for the provision of energy services in the residential sector.
Secondly, natural gas (piped and in cylinders) performs two services: cooking and heating. Gas is the dominant cooking fuel in urban areas. Up to 87 per cent of households consume gas in urban areas, but only 23 per cent do so in rural areas. Historically, gas was the most affordable cooking and heating fuel in Pakistan due to the indigenous Sui reserves. However, these reserves have been exhausted. According to the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority, the depletion rate is 10 per cent per year. The price of 7 7-10 M cu ft/month slab was Rs 275 before COVID-19; now the same slab price has increased to Rs 738, registering a price hike of 168 per cent. As a result of the limited availability of gas, it has become quite an expensive fuel for residential consumers after being a cheaper fuel. In terms of reliability, the shortage has caused hours-long load-shedding of gas. Although gas is considered a cleaner cooking fuel at the household level, its sustainability is linked to global geopolitics. There is a need to explore more indigenous reserves, cleaner alternatives, and reliable regional gas pipelines such as the TAPI project.
The third fuel is petrol, mainly consumed for transportation. In terms of affordability, the price of petrol was Rs 115 per litre before COVID-19, currently, the price is Rs 216 per litre, registering a 47 per cent growth in price. Furthermore, the import bill for petrol is 8.55 billion dollars. Hence, the affordability of petrol is becoming a critical issue in the micro-residential sector, and it is being reflected in import bills at the macro level as well. The reliability and sustainability of petrol are limited in the context of fossil fuels and emissions. Moreover, global oil prices are volatile and susceptible to shocks. This demands an alternative shift in transportation, the way forward is electric vehicles, hydrogen as transportation fuel, and mass transit systems.
Lastly, electricity can perform multiple services ranging from lighting, heating and cooling, cooking and transportation. Up to 90 per cent of households use electricity as the main fuel for lighting. In urban areas, this share is 98 per cent while in rural areas, it is 86 per cent. Moreover, according to the World Bank, 74 per cent of the population is connected to the electric grid. In terms of affordability, electricity prices for domestic consumers have rapidly increased from Rs 20 per unit (above 700 units) in 2019 to Rs 35.22 in 2022, registering a price hike of 76 per cent. The reliability of electricity is deteriorating in terms of load-shedding, overburdened transmission and distribution mechanisms, system losses, and rising circular debt. In the context of the electricity generation mix, the share of coal in thermal electricity generation has increased by 146 per cent and it is projected to increase in the future as well. There is a need to assess the long-term sustainability of coal power plants and their sustainability concerns. More renewable energy projects (solar and wind), effective use of the Asian Development Bank’s Energy Transition Mechanism programme for early retirement of coal plants and replacement with renewable sources, reduction of circular debt through system losses, and demand-side management in the residential sector, including conservation and efficiency enhancement approaches such as daylight-saving time, are the way forward.
To sum this up, Pakistan’s sustainable future in the energy sector depends on renewable energy and modern sources for the provision of energy services in the residential sector. Electricity powered by renewable seems to be the answer, as it can perform multiple services, electric stoves for cooking, electric vehicles for transportation, efficient lights for lighting, renewable powered cooling, and heating appliances.
The writer is associated with SDPI as an energy consultant. He can be reached at khalidwaleed @sdpi.org and tweets @Khalidwaleed_