The newly elected Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, apart from other things, starkly lays bare the reactionary nature of the so-called national, secular, liberal and progressive bourgeoisie of India. The BJP was set up as a political front of the religious neo-fascist organisation the Rashtriya Sevak Sayawamsang (RSS) in 1952. On the one hand it used religious rhetoric to whip up Hindu chauvinism to get the support of the primitive layers and lower middle classes of society. On the other it demagogically proclaimed ending poverty through development. The truth is that the BJP danced to the tune of the corporate bosses of India, who extravagantly expended billions on their resurgence, propaganda and election campaign. Modi and his camarilla have signed up to attack concessions won by the working class over the long years of struggle around basic trade union and social reforms. Another aspect of interest to the corporate bosses is to increase their market share and the hegemony of the Indian bourgeoisie in the region. With markets in the west and elsewhere contracting and with almost no signs of world capitalism’s recession easing, they want to capture every inch of the regional market in the subcontinent. This was the main reason for the ‘hardliner’ Narindera Modi’s invitation to Nawaz Sharif to attend his inaugural ceremony. The intentions of Sharif’s corporate bosses are not dissimilar. The ‘liberal’ sections of the Pakistani bourgeoisie have been demanding more cross-border trade between India and Pakistan. Some economic experts want to end the conflicts between the two countries to boost trade and growth. They believe the trade volume that could result from Indo-Pakistan trade normalisation may run as high as $ 40 billion, up from $ 3 billion. Shahid Javed Burki, a former Finance Minister and a World Bank economist wrote in 2007: “I estimated that the Kashmir dispute alone cost Pakistan 2.25 to 3.2 percent a year in GDP terms. Compounded over a period of six decades, this suggests the magnitude of the damage Pakistan has done to its economy by following this quarrel with India. The study used purely economic factors; it did not take into account the undeniable fact that some of the cost of this approach towards India contributed to the rise of Islamic extremism in the country that has also resulted in serious economic losses.” Now towering behind Sharif are new corporate Mafiosi dons who want this policy to be rapidly accelerated. The problem with Mr Burki and the like is that either they are very naive or are shooting in the dark to avert the relentless crisis of Pakistani capitalism. The rise of Islamic fundamentalism is directly linked to the gargantuan black economy that is about thrice the size of Pakistan’s formal economy. This black capital has its own laws and strategies. It controls important sections of the state, politics and media. National chauvinism is the cornerstone of its ideological and political charade, without which its political clout will evaporate and the financial privileges and vested interests of powerful sections of the state will also be impaired. This shows how fractured the Pakistani bourgeoisie has become even in crucial economic, security and foreign policy issues. The liberal sections of the elite are extremely inconsistent and erratic with their so-called policies of peace and friendship with India. The Sharifs have ascended to power on the back of anti-India and Pakistani nationalist rhetoric to appease the state, perhaps more than any other section of the political aristocracy. The Sharifs have switched their policies in the past and will do so with the first danger they face to their wealth and state-imbued power. It is also the character of the so-called ‘secular and democratic forces’ of the political elite to resort to religious appeasement at every crucial juncture, to achieve and preserve their wealth and rule when in power. This political class is weak and fragile due to its historical belatedness and economically debilitated state. The capitalist system on which it depends and imposes on society is in the throes of terrible chaos and terminal decay. The religious parties breathe and exist on anti-India and latterly on anti-American rhetoric. Taking into account these factors, the newfound lust for more profit through trade with India is not a long-term possibility. But the most crucial factor is that this enmity has been blatantly used by the ruling elite to cut across the might of the working class in a number of mass movements on either side of the artificial and traumatic divide. Indian and Pakistani chauvinisms have been used to drive a wedge every time class struggle erupts to overthrow the rule of this oppressive and exploitative system. The Indian ruling classes have used the bloody ordeal of partition to generate national frenzy even more than their Pakistani counterparts. With Sushma Swaraj at the helm of External Affairs, any peace process will be very hard to pursue. When Modi’s regime fails to deliver on his promises, the rising discontent will embolden the hardliners and anti-Pakistan rhetoric that is so widespread in India will rage. Development and rapid growth rates in the Indian capitalist economy will remain unachievable in the present state of chronic decline. Gone are the days when India touched double-digit growth figures. This means that even the slightest concession or slight cordiality let alone any tangible peace accord are remote. The present status quo of hostility with mild gestures of peace based on shaky foundations will continue. The system that has enriched the ruling elite has not only impoverished the masses into excruciating destitution, its burgeoning crisis is destabilising all aspects of governance including security and foreign policy. This means the turbulence and turmoil in the subcontinent will grow and could spiral out of control. The masses have been lulled and bewildered with despair for some time, especially in India. They have been trapped in a history of hypocritical embraces, vile duplicitous hatreds and deceitful hostility of the ruling classes. But how long can the workers and the oppressed masses endure this tyranny and coercion? There have been severe strikes in India and Pakistan. Bangladesh has seen more general strikes in the last three years than any other country in the world. These class struggles are bound to erupt on a higher plane. Ultimately they will have a deep impact on the political plane. The traditional populist, socialist, communist and other left parties either will have to abandon their opportunist policies of capitulation to capitalism and provide a way forward for the mass movement to its emancipation or they will be shoved aside by the tumultuous events and militant movements that are coming. Fresh revolutionary political parties and Marxist tendencies will rapidly gain mass bases that will forcefully rupture the trap of the elites’ duplicitous history and lead the class struggles towards a socialist victory. Under the present capitalist regime there are frightening scenarios of war, nuclear holocaust, bloodshed and barbarism. It now begins to threaten the very existence of human civilisation. (Concluded) The writer is the editor of Asian Marxist Review and international secretary of Pakistan Trade Union Defence Campaign. He can be reached at ptudc@hotmail.com