Daily Times

It took two years for the Afghan government to become aware of the death of Mullah Mohammad Omar, the leader of the Taliban group in Afghanistan. The confirmation of the death of Mullah Omar created a news explosion in the Afghan media. After the revelation of the death, many questions have risen about the Taliban’s competence and the Afghan government’s inability in dealing with the Taliban. The death of the Taliban leader came at a time when the Afghan government and the Taliban were about to meet and discuss the peace agreement in Pakistan. Two major hypotheses are being discussed on social media in Afghanistan about the disclosure of the death of Mullah Omar. First, a group, mostly fans of Hamid Karzai, believe that the time of the Taliban has gone and that it is an expired project in which Taliban leaders will disappear one by one and will be overtaken by Islamic State (IS) to project a threat against central Asian states. The second group, mostly supporters of President Ashraf Ghani, believes that just a few months ago the National Directorate Security (NDS) of Afghanistan and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan signed an intelligence agreement to share information about security threats and that the revelation of the Taliban leader was part of the agreement.
In addition, in a recent press conference, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, the CEO of the national unity government, said, “There are many questions about the death of Mullah Mohammad Omar but we have answered all those questions.” Mythically, many in Afghanistan hysterically believe that a dead body even governs and fought with the government of Afghanistan for two years!
Shortly after the announcement of the death of the Taliban leader, the media in Afghanistan also announced the death of Jalaludin Haqqani, the founder and leader of the Haqqani network, a Taliban group fighting against the Afghan government. The death of Mullah Omar has created friction among Taliban groups both in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Soon after the confirmation of the death of the Taliban leader, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor, in an audio message, asked the Taliban groups to keep their unity and not let the enemy take advantage of the situation. Sources close to the Afghan government say that Afghanistan’s national department of security, the ISI and CIA knew that the Taliban leader was dead two years ago.
Organisationally, the death of the Taliban leader has certainly created friction among the different groups of the Taliban. For example, the Taliban Fedayi Movement, in an official statement on their website, announced that Mullah Omar had been poisoned. On the other hand, Ashraf Ghani, in an official statement, said that the Afghan government had been closely observing the situation and would deal with the Taliban and insurgents as the opposition group of the Afghanistan government. The official statement by the president confirms that the Afghan government is not in favour of friction among different Taliban groups and wants a single group to discuss the peace agreement with.
This friction among Taliban groups is not only about power sharing but also rooted in their familial and clan conflicts. Mullah Mansoor, the new leader, is from the Ishaqzai clan, a group related to Durrani families. Mullah Mohammad Najib from the Mohaz Movement belongs to the Kakar clan. Mullah Baz Mohammad is Noorzai and Mullah Abdul Manan, the brother of Mullah Omar, belongs to the Hotaki clan. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) faced a similar situation in Afghanistan. After the death of Hakimullah Masood, the group was left in a power vacuum two years ago. A number of Taliban fighters supported Mullah Fazlullah whereas a number of them created another faction called the Jamaatul Ahrar, while another faction joined IS.
Comparatively, many in Afghanistan believe that the death of Mullah Omar is a repeat of the death of Osama bin Laden, the leader of al Qaeda, who was killed in 2011 by coalition forces led by the US. They argue that the death of Mullah Omar will result in a total collapse of the Taliban group in Afghanistan and official germination of IS. This comes as a surprise though since the death toll of civilians has increased by as much as 40 percent since the start of 2015. According to an estimate, more than 50,000 civilians have lost their lives in 2015 so far.
Moreover, 14 years have lapsed since the fall of the Taliban state in Afghanistan but still their supporters are found along the breadth and width of the country, including Kabul. In this respect, the social media in Afghanistan has reported and posted photos of the mourning ceremony of Mullah Omar near the presidential palace in Kabul. The photos were followed with commentary on how the ceremony was held in the presidential mosque and supported by government officials. Reactively, to oppose the mourning ceremony of the Taliban leader, civil society and media activists came out onto the streets and denounced the act by displaying anti-Taliban posters and placards. Such anti-Taliban demonstrations were held at a time when Taliban groups in Ghazni were forcing the public to hold religious prayers in reverence of the mullah.
In view of the above mentioned diverse views on the death of Mullah Omar, it is very difficult to reach a safe conclusion. However, having seen the Afghan Taliban being led by Mullah Mansoor and its endorsement by al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri on August 13, it is most likely that Mullah Omar will not die politically. Nevertheless, the political relevance of the Taliban is contingent on their ideological, organisational and financial capacity, which is seriously contested by IS. This group has recently attracted a section of the Afghan Taliban to its fold. The power competition between the Taliban and IS in and around Afghanistan has already been demonstrated through the latest attacks on civilians and the Afghan security forces. This probably has compelled President Ashraf Ghani and his deputy, Abdullah Abdullah, to point fingers at Rawalpindi, which has responded in the same fashion.
If domestic and regional peace is a priority, then Afghanistan and Pakistan ought to talk more to chalk out a sustained foreign policy. The visit of Afghan emissaries to Islamabad on August 13 offers such an opportunity. If missed out, the politics of Mullah Omar will continue to haunt not just Afghanistan but Pakistan too.

Dr Ejaz Hussain is a political scientist by training and professor by profession. He is a DAAD fellow and the author of Military Agency, Politics and the State in Pakistan. He tweets @ejazbhatty. Faisal Moonzajer is a Kabul based development and security expert. He tweets @Moonzajer