Daily Times

As if India and Pakistan were short of potential wars, the two sides have been busy fighting a miniscule battle over the Line of Control and the Working Boundary for the last three years. Yet there has been a sudden surge in the intensity of cross-border firing in the wake of the Indian allegation that some of its fallen soldiers had their bodies mutilated by the Pakistan Army.

Pakistan’s armed forces vehemently denied the charge. This, however, appeared to fall on deaf ears as the Indian Army chief proceeded to warn of dire consequences. Not only that, he made the audacious claim of having destroyed an army checkpost on the Pakistani side of the LoC. In an expected tit-for-tat rejoinder – Pakistan wasted no time in releasing footage of incident to debunk the big talk.

The recent killings of Indian soldiers in Uri appear to have prompted growing debate among Indian policymakers regarding provoking Pakistan. Thus, the Indian Army and the Modi sarkar claimed the so-called ‘surgical strike’ inside Pakistan. The latter denied any such occurrence and, realistically, any such adventure can best be classified as cross-LoC skirmishes, which sadly have become all too common. Strategically, India still is, in best case scenario terms, at the early stages of its Cold Start doctrine.

Operationally, such a doctrine is essentially loaded with tactical limitations given geographical proximity. Which means that even if the Indian military establishment carries out such an operation — its radius will be confined to the zone of Jammu and Kashmir, where the two militaries have already fought three wars in addition to intermittent skirmishes. Nevertheless, if somehow in the future India chooses to strike inside Pakistan proper — this will amount to all-out war. In such a scenario, with limited conventional capability, the use of nuclear weapons would appear the only option for Pakistan. An option that, if and when applied, would annihilate millions of people along with fauna and flora on both sides. Moreover, radioactivity could cause severe damage in neighbouring countries, such as Afghanistan, Iran and Nepal. Thus, it is in the mutual interests of India and Pakistan to consciously avoid conventional escalation of hostilities along the LoC. Additionally, the international community should also play its role to prevent a looming nuclear war between the two sides. After all, it is in the interest of the global powers to have peace in South Asia for economic returns. And last but not least, resolving the Kashmir issue has always and still does remain the key to normalised relations between the two neighbours.  *