The absurd consequences of the political agitation launched by the PDM soon after the formation of the PTI government in 2018 in terms of political and economic instability, erosion of the national institutions’ credibility and the supremacy of the basic law of the country were more than obvious given the history of the political agitations in the country, nor anyone expected positive results from the political change brought about with the help of turncoats in the presence of the explicit constitutional provisions and election laws. We have carried out these political experiments repeatedly and come to the same absurd consequences. We are averse to learning from our past mistakes.
With the neutrality of the establishment and the ruthless wheeling and dealing of certain political heavyweights, the country has been plunged into a political crisis that is getting deeper every day. The turncoats have met their political demise and the biggest province of the country is without a legitimately elected chief executive and governor. The federal government supposed to take tough decisions to avoid an economic meltdown is sustained by a two-vote majority and seeks unabashedly the establishment’s support fearing any small political party could pull the rug under its trembling feet. The architect of the current political upheaval is reluctant to seek a fresh mandate without the electoral and statutory reforms suited to his designs notwithstanding the ousted PTI leader’s popular agitation outshining all the previous political movements.
The Pakistan Muslim League is hamstrung by the intensifying rivalry between the uncle and niece with the party supremo standing at the back of his daughter. He is more concerned about the likely adverse political consequences of the tough economic decisions taken without the explicit support of the powerful quarters to guarantee the safe sail of the present regime all through to the general election in October-November 2023.
The turncoats have met their political demise and the biggest province of the country is without a legitimately elected chief executive and governor.
This simply means that the establishment should back the regime to crush the political onslaught of Imran Khan. The security establishment, wittingly or unwittingly, has already taken a heavy toll on the ongoing political tussle. It cannot further risk losing its credibility in bailing out a beleaguered regime.
The current predicament of the PDM leaders and particularly those of the main component parties- PMLn and PPP – is understandable. They were euphoric in toppling the PTI regime with the twin purpose of seeking relief in the corruption cases against them and facilitating the return of Mian Nawaz Sharif, annulling certain electoral laws and holding elections at their sweet will without factoring in the capacity of the fallen Imran Khan for a political comeback, and the unpredictability of the verdicts of the assertive Judiciary. The apex court has successfully blocked their option to temper the criminal cases or influence the course of law by transfer of investigating officers, prosecutors etc. This has stirred a wave of disappointment among the senior leaders of PML(N) and intensified the internal squabbling in the party. However, they can annul the electoral laws enacted by the previous regime.
The fallen PTI leader has driven home his political narrative by successful mass mobilization. He has stemmed the likely mass desertions from his party and instead made it the most attractive choice for political heavyweights. One can disagree with his political narrative and populist politics. However, the consequences of any plan to crush his charged political agitation would be too violent to be endured by the country already tottering under the worst kind of political and economic instability with regional security threats staring it in the face. Some PDM leaders are of the view that Imran Khan will not be able to sustain his present mass mobilization. Our experience with political agitations tells us a different story. All the past political movements involving the middle class including those of DAC, PNA, MRD against Ayub Khan, ZAB, and General Zia ul Haq left a far-reaching impact on the political course in the country. We cannot be dismissive of the political agitation of Mr Khan which is surpassing all the previous movements.
It is good that Imran Khan postponed his announcement of the date of the long march in his address to the massive public crowd in Multan leaving the decision to the core committee of his party to be meeting on Sunday, 22 May. Most probably he wants to find a middle way out of this political crisis without putting the country to further trial and tribulation or exercising the political options available to him under the new circumstances to bring down the Shahbaz Sharif government in the centre and oust his son from the saddle in Punjab or give space to the powers that may be to make amends using their weight for new elections.
The political tempers in both camps are rising. The ruling coalition is unnerved by the rising public popularity of the fallen Imran Khan and the judicial verdicts imperilling their grip on political power and the ruthless exercise of executive powers with their senior leaders insinuating the establishment’s involvement in the whirlwind public campaign of the ousted PTI leader and the consecutive judicial decisions against them. This is the extremity of political immaturity. Imran Khan seems to have toned down his rhetoric against the establishment training his guns on his political foes. The PDM leaders including Moulana Fazal Ur Rehman and Rana Sanaullah cry foul about the partiality of the establishment including the superior courts. This will take us nowhere.
Imran Khan has emerged as the biggest political stakeholder in the country. No viable solution to our present political and economic predicament could be found without him. Any national dialogue excluding him will be fruitless. If Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif wants to initiate a national dialogue as he has indicated recently, it should not be restricted to the components of PDM only. It has to be broad-based including the PTI leader. However, we are not hopeful of any positive results out of this national dialogue given the big ego of our political leadership. This leaves us with the only option of going for early elections.
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books.
Leave a Comment