Daily Times

Iran is all set to elect a new president today (Friday). If, that is, enough people are prepared to go ballot-boxing. So far, the prospect of low voter turnout is so real that the Supreme Leader has urged everyone and their cat to do the needful. Not that the country is known for free and fair elections — but optics remain important. Both at home and abroad.

Pundits are worried about a return to hardline politics. And with good reason.

Ebrahim Raisi is the man who thinks he can. Not only is the former judiciary chief (who came in second in the 2017 elections) close to the Supreme Leader — many view him as the natural successor — Raisi was sanctioned by the US in 2019 over involved in extrajudicial killings dating back to 1988 as well as his role in the 2009 crackdown on dissent. Indeed, Interpol still have an active warrant out for his arrest over suspected involvement in a 1994 terrorist attack on a Jewish community centre in Argentina. All of which ought to represent sufficient pulling power to secure the hardline vote. Even the decision to throw his weight behind multilateral talks to restart the country’s stalled nuclear pact will likely not dent his ‘popularity’. Nor should it be seen as a signal to openness to the West. This is purely pragmatic.

Today, more than half of Iran’s 85 million population live below the poverty line. All because of the Trump White House’s unilateral exit from the nuclear deal in 2018 — and subsequent sanctions — even while it began openly flirting with nuclear North Korea. Thus, while analysts may warn that Raisi’s chequered past affords the Biden administration certain leverage on the (selective) human rights front — in reality, the question is whether or not Washington play a hardline position or not. After all, it squandered the goodwill of the outgoing reformist Rouhani and crippled the Iranian economy. Though the US should be aware that the $400 billion China-Iran strategic cooperation deal is a game-changer for Tehran.

Most Iranians, however, do not view the aforementioned as the immediate priority. Far more troubling is the economic haemorrhaging and effective decent into one-party rule. Moreover, two hardliner candidates and one moderate bowed out of the presidential race this week. Meaning that of the seven officially permitted candidates — only four remain. And, aside from Raisi, the main contender is Abdolnasser Hemmati, a moderate former head of the central bank. He has even vowed to keep on Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, who led the 2015 nuclear negotiations, either in his current post or else bump him up to his number two. But even this may not be enough to swing a cat. Not when voter turnout is expected to be as low as 41 percent. Or when many are planning to boycott elections under the social media hashtag: #NoToIslamicRepublic.

If Raisi does win the one-man race and the US suddenly starts talking about human rights violations — Washington will only have itself to blame. Not that the Iranians will be listening. *