Daily Times

The fourth Finance minister in two years has unveiled the government’s third budget, despite only being on the job since April. If this sounds like a mathematical conundrum — it is supposed to. But the gamble appears to have paid off.

Shaukat Tarin unveiled an ambitious budget for 2021-22. Boasting a total outlay of Rs 8.5 trillion and pledging 4.8 percent in economic growth for the year ahead — this has been touted as people-friendly budget designed for the common (wo)man. Indeed, there seems to be a little something for everyone if not their cat. Such as: a favourable Rs 5.9 trillion tax target; an 18-percent increase in tax collection; focus on boosting agriculture with a view to Pakistan becoming a food exporter nation while incentivising farmers; and spotlighting SME (small and medium enterprise) funding.

There are other pluses, too. At least on paper. For a start, there is the unconditional provision of immediate financial relief to 12 million people under the Ehsaas Emergency Cash Programme. Not that the government has forgotten the 87 million reportedly living below the poverty line; earmarking Rs 260 billion for the Ehsaas programme. On the cards at the micro-level are interest-free loans of up to Rs 500,000 for the poor. It is hoped that this will serve the needs of indentured labour and dilute the hold of the feudal system over the most vulnerable. Ditto the basic minimum wage increase to Rs 20,000. Though more efforts need to be made to mainstream the invisible economy and the regularising of domestic workers.

Of course, in real terms, it remains up for debate whether this represents an actual living wage given current inflation rates. Yet this is not overlook how the rupee bounced back against the dollar at the close of last year to be crowned Asia’s third-best performing currency. Though there may be concerns that the focus on global exports (export-led growth is crucial to any IMF loan repayment scheme) signals moves to keep the rupee relatively weak in a bid to offset current account deficits. Even so, this will not be harmful in the short- to medium- term. In fact, it will help prolong the much-needed kickstart to the economy.

Elsewhere, the defence budget has increased by 6.2 percent. Though some opposition sources say this is not enough, particularly given the precarious regional security situation linked to the US exit from Afghanistan. There are also increased murmurings that the Finance Minster may resign before the end of the government’s tenure. But this is likely wishful thinking by a disjointed opposition alliance that has one eye on the next general elections.

As perhaps expected, the opposition rejected the budget; preferring political point-scoring and playing to the cheap seats over debate. Yet had it been sincerely interested in Pakistan’s economic health — it could have engaged in meaningful dialogue over, say, CPEC repayments. For the IMF is not the only lender in town. While joining hands across the great divide in the economic interest.

Be that as it may, the PTI has won this round. And all those who pooh-poohed Prime Minister Imran Khan’s unconventional wisdom on national lockdowns should get ready to eat their words. Or humble pie. The choice is theirs. *