Daily Times

Last August, Prime Minister Narendra Modi annexed Kashmir. Then he announced plans to identify and expel alleged Bangladeshi migrants. More recently, he amended a law giving preference to non-Muslim refugees to become citizens of a nominally secular India.Modi’s extremely controversial steps, which reflect the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) ultra-nationalist Hindutva agenda that pits Hindus against Muslims, have stirred up the entire country and raised a host of questions about India’s future.

By no means is the discriminatory mantra of the BJP a cure to India’s myriad problems. Hindutva may be good for the BJP to win elections, but bad for India. The solution lies neither in giving Pakistan a bloody nose nor in silencing Kashmiris or pitting Hindus against Muslims, but in India’s emergence as a global economic powerhouse.

By giving its people a world-class living standard, India can entice many Pakistanis-even possibly Bangladeshis, Nepalese and Bhutanese-to rejoin the union if it holds the promise of a better life for them. If Indians lived like Americans or Europeans today, Pakistanis would have pondered whether they are better off in a poor separate nation or in a wealthy India.

To be sure, no one expects an overnight change, but a regional reconfiguration as outlined in the British Cabinet Mission Plan is not really far-fetched down the road. This may mean a loosely federated India, with special political protections for frightened minorities-a complete reversal of the Hindutva mantra now being chanted by the saffron warriors.

Economic potential counters separatism

No, Modi’s electoral victory last May over Rahul Gandhi is no proof that Laxmi lost out to Indra. It simply means that the Congress party’s message appeared too cloudy and came too late for voters to grasp its significance. In the grand scheme of things, Laxmi will prevail. As the US has discovered, it’s the economy, stupid! Even right now, President Donald Trump is blowing the economic horn to win re-election this year.

Just across the Atlantic, Scotland’s referendum in 2014 proved that people vote with their wallets. Fifty-five percent of the Scots opposed separation from Britain, ignoring the rhetoric that North Sea’s vast oil reserves would make Scotland a rich nation.In 2012, only five percent of Puerto Ricans favoured a free nation, while a whopping sixty-one percent opted to be US’s fifty-first state. Quebec also found Canada’s economic largesse sweeter than independence. In contrast, economic deprivation pushed Bengalis to form Bangladesh.

Would the Soviet Union have splintered if it were an economic powerhouse? Possibly not. Yugoslavia fell apart only after running into a serious economic hardship and its most advanced region, Slovenia, refused to carry the burden of its poorer siblings. Pro-independence Sikhs in Punjab felt the same when they waged a violent campaign in the 1980s for a new nation, Khalistan.

Kashmir move: a fallacy

When Modi annexed Kashmir, he blamed the state’s economic plight, but it is a fallacy. By his logic, Assam and Uttar Pradesh would be prime candidates for direct rule from Delhi. These states fare worse than Kashmir in income. Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Tripura, Manipur, Megalaya, Bihar and Jharkhand trail Kashmir, too.

If India were rich, Kashmiris would have long ago buried the idea of joining a bankrupt Pakistan or becoming a destitute independent nation. Freed African-Americans chose to stay in the United States than migrate to independent Liberia even though they faced discrimination in the United Sattes; Uncle Sam held better economic prospects for them. Sadly, India ranked 102nd among 117 countries in the Global Hunger Index in 2019, behind Nepal, North Korea and even Pakistan. India ‘s growth plunged to five percent last year, an eleven-year low.

For the past seven decades, India has remained obsessed with Pakistan. As a result, India today finds itself dwarfed by its real rival, China. Pakistan is not India’s real enemy, and Kashmir is not India’s vexing issue. India’s dismal economic condition is its real curse, and China is India’s pressing challenge.

The solution lies neither in giving Pakistan a bloody nose nor in silencing Kashmiris or pitting Hindus against Muslims, but in India’s emergence as a global economic powerhouse

In 1960, China and India had the same yearly income of $80 per person. Today, an Indian earns only twenty-five percent of what a Chinese makes. China’s military budget is four times larger than India’s. Except for the headcount, China today surpasses India in almost all categories in defence matters.

Yes, China’s military was stronger even in 1960, thanks to Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s indifference to defence, until the People’s Liberation Army violated India. The gap has widened sharply since Deng Xiao Peng’s reforms in the 1970s, which created China’s economic miracle and helped Beijing build a mighty military machine and polish its image worldwide.

To an average Greek, India is a land where people wear colourful dresses, eat spicy food and men dance in movies. So much for the reputation of India, a land with a five thousand-year heritage. It’s high time for Indians to start worshiping the rupee rather than the cow.

India suffers from delusion

Many Indians see Delhi’s effective handling of the Doklam plateau standoff with China near Bhutan’s border three years ago as proof that the Elephant can fight off the Dragon. How much of that victory was because of India’s muscle power is a matter of speculation. More likely, Beijing did not push India too hard because it feared Delhi would jump right on America’s lap, an angst that has shaped China’s foreign policy since the 1950s.

Because of India’s failure to offer the economic carrot, Kashmir takes matters into its own hands. The fact that India’s smaller siblings have done well encourages Kashmiris to strike out on their own. If Bangladesh can prosper, why not Kashmir?

Kashmir, however, is in a vastly different climate because of existing geopolitical realities. So, its fate will take unpredictable twists and turns. Any military move by Pakistan will mean war. None but China can rattle India, but Beijing will not stick out its neck. China wants to befriend Delhi to avoid US containment.

Delhi must see the big picture. A mighty economy will help India create a robust security apparatus and lure Kashmir to cast its lot with the Indian union. And, dealing peacefully with Pakistan is the right option for India.If India ever faces cataclysmic headwinds, it would not be because of its failure to imbibe its citizens with ultra-nationalism or break Pakistan into pieces, but because of its indifference to its people’s dream to live in a prosperous motherland. The Soviet Union’s fate is highly instructive.

The writer has authored Bangladesh Liberation War, How India, U.S., China and the USSR Shaped the Outcome