Daily Times

The Turkish parliament on January 2 passed a bill that allowed the government to deploy troops to Libya to intervene in the civil war.

Quickly afterwards, troops began moving into Libya, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying their mission was to ensure stability for the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. The internationally recognised Libyan government is fighting forces based in eastern Libya led by renegade military commander Gen Khalifa Haftar, who is backed by UAE, Egypt and Russia, while the Tripoli-based government is supported by Turkey and Qatar.

Haftar’s eastern-based forces launched an offensive to seize the capital Tripoli in April. With eight months of fighting, the battle still rages on with the GNA keeping Haftar’s forces at bay on the southern outskirts of Tripoli.

However, the fighting has escalated after Gen Haftar declared a decisive and “final” battle for the capital. Ankara has already supplied GNA with armoured vehicles and also operates drones on the UN-backed government’s behalf.

Turkey says the troops will be deployed in a “training and advisory” role. However, it has to be said that if the Tripoli government is in a precarious position, then Ankara may be forced to intervene in a rather direct manner.

Besides supporting the legitimate government of Libya in Tripoli, Ankara sees the country as strategically important to its interests in the eastern Mediterranean. The two countries recently signed an economic agreement on energy exploration. Therefore, Turkey’s goals in Libya have three important dimensions.

For Ankara, even if it cannot decisively turn the tide in the GNA’s favour, it is important for Turkey to create political negotiations and a stalemate that would help preserve its maritime demarcation deal with the Tripoli-based government, which was signed back in November.

Moreover, Ankara is aware of the fact that a gap left by the US disengagement in Libya would be quickly filled by other powers – like Russia, UAE and Egypt – so it wants to fill in that void. The Ankara-Tripoli deal involving the delineation of maritime border is a way for Turkey to strengthen its position as a major power in the region.

With Libya’s neighbours already up in arms about the deal it signed with Turkey, it has become all the more crucial for Ankara to make sure that any discussion in the Eastern Mediterranean does not exclude it.

In a scenario where Haftar were to rule all of Libya, Turkey is aware that it would be shut out completely, essentially putting all of Ankara’s maritime interests in the Mediterranean in serious jeopardy. And in that nightmarish scenario for Turkey, it would be left completely at the mercy of Haftar and his allies – UAE and Egypt – and they’ll make sure that after having Greece on board, Ankara doesn’t get a slice of the Mediterranean pie.

Egypt has already said that Turkey’s military intervention in Libya was a “matter of Egyptian national security” and it would defeat efforts seeking “to control” its neighbour.

Meanwhile, Greece, Israel and Cyprus issued a joint statement warning against the Turkish deployment, calling it a dangerous threat to regional stability and that it breached a UN arms embargo imposed on Libya. Another important dimension for Turkey’s involvement is the fact that it’s backing the internationally recognised government, which, according to the UN, is the only representative body in Libya. Turkey believes Russia, the UAE, France and Egypt are supporting an illegitimate entity, whereas it sees itself supporting a UN-backed government.

It’s imperative to note that time and time again Russia has used a similar argument in its backing for the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, something which is not lost on Turkey. Explaining Turkey’s position, President Erdogan said in December: “They [Haftar’s allies] are helping a warlord, but we are responding to an invitation from the legitimate government of Libya. That’s the difference between us [and them].” In a similar vein, Turkey’s special envoy to Libya, Emrullah Isler, said: “Prime Minister Fayez Al-Sarraj is the head of the legitimate government of Libya, which is recognized by the international community. As head of the Libyan state, he attends all international meetings, including the UN on behalf of Libya.”

It remains to be seen, however, whether Turkey’s actions would leave it more isolated or would it allow Ankara to carve out an important role in the region

Further elaborating, he added, “Turkey has taken its position clearly. We want democracy to survive in Libya and we have announced that Ankara will support this government so that the dictatorial regimes do not come back.”

The third and by far the most important aspect of Turkey’s involvement in Libya is its emerging role as the key arbiter in the war-torn country.

Together with Russia, Turkey is trying to push GNA’s head Fayez al-Sarraj and his rival Haftar to start agreeing to the outlines of a longer-term political settlement, one that suits both Moscow and Ankara.

On Monday, the talks involving the two warring sides in Moscow were held a day after a fragile ceasefire brokered by Russia and Turkey came into force in Libya.

Even though the two sides failed to sign the truce and adjourned for further discussions Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was confident they would ink the document, saying they viewed the document “positively.” Later this month, European leaders will meet in Berlin to try and find a political solution to end the conflict in Libya. However, EU unity is hard to come by because of the divisions of European countries over which side to support in Libya. Italy and others back the GNA, but France sides with Haftar. Amidst this disunity, any deal involving Turkey and Russia would severely limit the EU’s role in Libya, as Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte warned on December 12.

“We must be united, we cannot allow actors even much more distant from Libya, to position themselves, settle their role in the Libyan scenario and claim the primacy for any solutions,” he said. In the absence of European leadership on Libya, Turkey has found it easier to insert itself into the conflict. For years, Libya has played the role of a gatekeeper when it comes to stemming the tide of refugees heading towards Europe. In 2008, Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi was receiving millions of dollars in aid from the EU, with the promise of tightening control over Libya’s thousand-mile long coastline.

In recent years, thousands of migrants have been killed while trying to cross the Mediterranean. Ankara already hosts the highest number of refugees in the world and is, therefore, wary of seeing another crisis that could impact Turkish towns and cities. Stemming the flow of refugees is crucial for Turkey. Speaking at the AK Party’s parliamentary group meeting in Ankara on Tuesday, Erdogan said Turkey has no imperial desires in Libya and the Mediterranean but “only aims to protect rights, future of Turkey, and its brothers.” He also said, “if Turkey hadn’t stepped in, putschist Haftar would have occupied Libya, trapping its people in ‘claws of persecution’.”

All of these factors explain Libya’s strategic importance to Turkey. It remains to be seen, however, whether Turkey’s actions would leave it more isolated or would it allow Ankara to carve out an important role in the region.

The writer is a Deputy News Editor at a private news channel, with a focus on the Middle East and Asia Pacific