Daily Times

Commerce dependent on seaborne trade: The Chinese Communist Party declared that “maritime power” status was essential to realizing its national ambitions. In 2017 China’s imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose by an unanticipated 46 % reflected in 16 operational LNG terminals importing 71 bcm emphasizing that its commerce is reliant on external energy sources. Statistics of 2010 China’s Ocean Development Report valued seaborne commerce at USD 456 billion projecting import of 65 % of its oil consumption by 2020 sources of which include Iran and Saudi Arabia. Being trumpeted as the world’s second largest economy is contingent on its trade through the high seas and both ends of the trade spectrum comprise import of raw materials to enable export and sustain the Chinese economic model besides offsetting dissent through generating high employment. Thus continues unabated China’s inexorable quest for Blue Waters.

South China Sea

China became the world leader in merchant shipbuilding in 2010 however as demand shrunk it felt compelled to graduate from a shipbuilding country to shipbuilding power now advocating maritime order primarily predicating the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea as it feels comfortable that this convention is an accepted means of adjudicating maritime trade route disputes between states. The South China Sea encompasses 3.5 million sq.km surrounded by China and the littoral states of South East Asiawith40,000 ships sailing annually plying around 40 % per cent of global sea trade. As a critical artery for commerce and energy security, the 800 km Strait of Malacca offers a direct navigational route yet convenient transit course for super tankers transporting oil from Africa and the Middle East to energy starved China. . The South China Sea is estimated to possess reserves of around a billion barrels of oil and trillion cubic feet of gas a portion of which is claimed by China to be in its maritime perimeters.

Trade Wars unabated

A sordid saga of the ongoing trade war surfaced when the US administration alleged that China reneged on earlier commitments to amend its laws in the area of intellectual property rights, trade secrets, forced technology transfers, access to financial services and currency manipulation with the US threatening to raise tariffs on USD 200 billion worth of Chinese goods .The latest tiff appears to have been triggered by seizures in U.S. of fentanyl and its analogues, an opioid painkiller 50 times potent than heroin, responsible for under 29,000 synthetic opioid linked deaths in the US. These opioids enter the US through transit mail. While China pledged to expand the list of narcotics subject to state control numbering more than 1,400 known fentanyl analogues manufacturers in China skirted controls by synthesizing fresh and deadlier analogues which has not contained this opioid spate.

The simmering resentment towards this game changing strategy proposed by Pakistan may rattle the complacency of western powers hitherto enjoying virtual dominance in the waters lapping Balochistan’s coastal belt and stakes are being raised

Flexing maritime muscles

Concern in western capitols mounted pursuant to a 2019 report of the U.S Defense Department revealing the Chinese navy could possess as many as six aircraft carriers by the year 2035 with four having catapult equipped capability by 2022. In the report there is a slight that Chinese engineers realized the faults in Chinas’ first aircraft carrier Lioaning commissioned after an extensive overhaul of the stripped down ship towed from Ukraine. China’s indigenously constructed aircraft carrier is expected to become combat ready by the end of this year yet lacks catapult capability as a ski jump configuration on the bow does not allow for multi role aircraft launch including airborne early warning aircraft and having a reduced ramp layout restricts maximum launch of aircraft weighing 30 tons limiting China’s J-15 fighter weapons load. U.S carriers deploy steam catapults launching fighterswith significantly greater payload.

Even at this pioneering stage of aircraft carrier development China possesses extended air defense coverage and the threat perception lies in expected commission by the year 2022 of a Type 002 carrier outfitted with catapult launch enabling a multi role capability lending credence to the theory that China is in pursuit of blue water outreach. Although the US Navy maintains its superiority over the Chinese Navy with a fleet of 11 nuclear powered super carriers Chinese ambitions are currently restricted to Indo Pacific region and are less of a drain on revenues thereby its fiscal resources are available to advance its maritime ambitions. China’s strategic planners realize they don’t need to exercise global maritime hegemony in the way the US does nurturing China’s ambitions to compete to protect strategic and relatively less costlier sea routes encompassing the predominant portion of global trade coming close to the staggering figure of USD 5 trillion . China’s future strategy may include maintaining security of choke points in the Indian Ocean’s seaborne trade in vital energy supplies catering to almost 80 % of world energy requirements. Apart from combat operations its present aircraft carriers with an air wing of 40 fixed and rotary-wing aircraft supported by maritime patrol makes its naval presence visible at catching sensational headlines. Ultimately the Chinese fleet would be complemented by four nuclear-powered super carriers projected to compete in capability to the US Nimitiz reaching an air wing upto 100 fixed and rotary-wing aircraft with the potential to alter the strategic calculus of power.

Blue Waters of Gwadar and sedimentary basin

The next dimension of China’s twin maritime and trade push may converge with Pakistan’s legitimate desire to develop Gwadar as a deep water port. The simmering resentment towards this game changing strategy proposed by Pakistan may rattle the complacency of western powers hitherto enjoying virtual dominance in the waters lapping Balochistan’s coastal belt and stakes are being raised. The key issue for Pakistan is securely clasping the financial lifeline irrespective of the lender whether it is a multilateral funding agency or a bilateral mechanism. It goes without saying that a vibrant and transparent economy in Pakistan would enable it to sustain international pressure and establish, negotiate and secure the future maritime status of Gwadar balancing divergent maritime interest and any trade offs publicly debated would ensure the country exploits the strategic potential of the entire Balochistan coastline and the hitherto unexploited mineral and fossil deposits in its onshore as well as offshore sedimentary basin.

The writer is researches in the areas of finance and energy. Nadir Mumtaz reviewed the article