Daily Times

When I was a kid in high school, I was constantly exposed to chants of “hum khud’dar, hum khud’dar” (we, the dignified). This mantra was broadcast 24/7 on the only available state television and radio stations during the initial phase of General Zia-ul-Haq’s tenure, when he pulverized the Zulfikar Ali Bhutto regime in 1977. Hysteria loomed, as Zia’s promise to return to democracy was repeatedly stretched. After that, new slogans and talk of breaking the begging bowl became state policy icons.

The motives were to overcome the policy and strategic compromises, break the conditional shackles of foreign economic and military assistance and to develop self-reliance. All of this sounded great to the common man, becoming a winning political mantra regardless of what regime was in power. However, with the change in strategic environment, the political sloganeering twisted again with an over-emphasis on jurisprudential Islamisation.

With the beginning of the American Jihad in Afghanistan against the occupying Soviet forces, Pakistan’s foreign policy swung back to the West. We became party to the American Afghan policy against the former Soviet Union. It didn’t take too long then to abandon brimming nationalist feelings, as sometimes faith is the most powerful driving force behind political objectives. Zia followed in the footsteps of his predecessors, embracing whatever served his own interests.

President Pervez Musharraf, a general hell bent upon championing the cause of democracy and free media, had initially also played hardball against the US and did everything to discourage it. However, with the paradigm shift in strategic environment brought by 9/11, we found ourselves back in the American courtyard. Musharraf’s civilian successors followed suite.

Taking inspirations from Turkey seems like a good idea, but we might not hold the same cards President Erdogan does. It was those cards that broke the shackle of foreign debts and reliance on international monetary organisations. However, we are not Turkey. Yet, the regional strategic environment this time has been modified with the entry of a third super international player, China.

The brewing hostility between the US and China could undergo a paradigm shift that gives one global power an advantage over the other at any time. Meanwhile, Russia watches cautiously

Are we wrong to put so many of our eggs in the Chinese basket? We are still heavily indebted to foreign money lenders and that too on very harsh terms. Many view Chinese business ethics as ruthlessly pragmatic and in direct collision with Pakistan’s interests. Are the Chinese open to softening relations with India? Probably. The Indian missile buildup doesn’t mean much for sChina, due to natural barrier provided by the Himalayas.

The Indo-American alliance aiming to counter China’s growing footprint in Afghanistan and ‘the string of pearls’ in the Indian Ocean, needs to be considered. India’s own aspirations cannot be ignored either. The brewing hostility between the US and China could undergo a paradigm shift that gives one global power an advantage over the other at any time. Meanwhile, Russia watches cautiously. In addition, strengthening Indo-Iran and Indo-Afghan ties where India remains the major cause of friction in Pakistan-Afghan relations, the regional political mosaic appears more perplexed. Statecraft is not just about differentiating friends from foes. There is a big grey area that needs to be considered. There are no permanent friends or enemies in politics.

The Chinese are tough money-lenders, but still provide a pivot to play against the West. The new government in Pakistan has already made it known it would prefer not to borrow from the Bretton Woods organisations. However, President Trump’s over emphasis on closing the tab on military aid to Pakistan continues to frustrate. Do we have a better choice? It might be premature to judge the new government at this point, which is trying to swim through its teething problems. But, how would it handle diplomatic rows, policy backtracking and external relations with countries in the West in the backdrop of an ongoing religious insurgency? These are questions that remain to be answered.

The writer is senior journalist and former Political Affairs Advisor to the US Consulate General in Karachi

Published in Daily Times, September 8^th 2018.