Daily Times

Kenya represents an international hub. This may explain why world leaders were quick to congratulate President Kenyatta on a victory that had been nullified by the SC

The Burden of Democracy, a book by Indian political thinker Pratap Bhanu Mehta, could well have been written with Kenya’s current electoral impasse in mind. For the latter is a country pregnant with political ambiguity following the annulment of the presidential poll.

The Supreme Court summed up the magnitude of this gridlock when it said: “We find that the 2017 presidential election was neither transparent nor verifiable.” This was sufficient to have sent chills running down the spines of the mwanachi (local Kenyans) at the prospect of a re-run of the bloody 2007 polls. The SC strongly reprimanded officials at the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the body responsible for organising and holding elections in Kenya, for mismanaging what has proved to be one of the most expensive elections that the world has ever seen.

To add insult to injury, lawmakers found themselves effectively embroiled in a parliamentary coup as they hurried to pass the Election Laws (Amendment) Bill 2017 in the absence of the opposition members. The controversial Bill is designed to legitimise illegalities serving the partisan interests of the ruling coalition Democratic Party led by President Uhuru Kenyatta.

It is therefore hard to see what will be gained from the SC directive to hold fresh elections. Already the constitutionally recognised IEBC has been rendered compromised and is currently in a state of disarray. Admittedly, some of its top officials have been instructed to step down. One commissioner fled the country before tending his resignation, citing frustration at procedural norms as well as personal security concerns. The chairman of the deeply divided Commission has declared the election re-run, scheduled for October 26, as already being in jeopardy as the body finds itself caught in the political crossfire between the opposition and the ruling coalition.

Opposition leader Odinga’s refusal to participate in fresh elections is aimed at preserving his legacy as the only politician courageous enough to initiate the historic SC ruling that nullified a rigged presidential election. Yet his failure to institute comprehensive democratic and constitutional reforms has seen the currency of his political good will devalue

This standoff is said to have been provoked by NASA, the opposition coalition led by presidential candidate Raila Odinga. The latter, of course, has been keen to publicly question the deafening silence of longstanding allies such as the US and Britain on the present political impasse. Yet this overlooks the fact that Kenya is an international hub that has a diverse set of stakeholders. Meaning that the paralysis has far-reaching ramifications.

This would explain why world leaders were quick to ignore the grave electoral discrepancies in the rush to congratulate President Kenyatta on a victory that had been nullified by country’s highest court.

This, perhaps, was to be expected, given the substantial and strategic goodwill invested in him. And so it was that President Xi Jinping of China noted: “During your participation in the Road and Belt Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing last May, we had an in-depth exchange of views on the development of bilateral relations and reached extensive consensus”. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on Kenyatta to assure the latter of his country’s commitment to facilitating cooperation on agriculture and security.

Indeed, the Jewish state has spent the last year trying to push the Kenyan president to back its bid for observer status at the African Union. What is more, political strategists believe that the recent devastating terror attack in neighbouring Somalia was crucially timed to remind the new Kenyan leadership of the need for foreign forces in East Africa. It is, therefore, perhaps no coincidence that in the immediate aftermath of that blast, the US African Command issued a statement saying that “this meets the criteria to warrant immediate US government assistance”.

Thus the widespread belief is that this orchestrated support by international powerhouses encouraged the pro-Kenyatta lobby to simply change the electoral goalposts midway through. As a result, one is left wondering how little the votes of millions of Kenyans seem to matter at a time when they should matter the most.

Yet this is not to discount the fact that the politicians and the masses make strange bedfellows. In other words, despite everything the majority of Kenyans, regardless of which way they voted, currently now want Kenyatta as their president. This is largely due to opposition candidate Odinga’s sudden refusal to participate in fresh elections; a move that has been seen as an outright guerrilla tactic aimed at pushing Kenyatta to the negotiating table. For pundits, it also signals a calculated bid by Odinga to preserve his legacy as a veteran political fighter; one that had the courage to initiate the historic SC ruling that rendered null and void a rigged presidential election, possibly setting a new precedent for the entire African continent.

Though in terms of the bigger picture, Odinga’s failure to institute comprehensive democratic and constitutional reforms has cost him the patronage of moderates, hawks, doves and Leftists. This has also seen the currency of his political good will devalue, thereby making his dream of waking up at the State House even more unlikely.

The writer is a Nairobi-based commentator specialising in East African affairs. He can be reached at equinoxcommunications@gmail.com