Daily Times

Amid anger from Kyiv and its allies, Russia has taken up the monthly presidency of the 15-member UN Security Council from April 1 while Ukraine has also warned of “a massive spring counteroffensive as soon as April”. The Ukrainian Interior Minister Igor Klimenko has claimed to have assembled eight new brigades for this offensive. The exact number of personnel in the new force was not revealed. But a brigade usually consists of between 3,000 to 5,000 troops. Russia is well aware of the Kyiv move of completing the recruitment of its “so-called Attack Guard,” which has surely been assembled to retake territories lost to Russia during the ongoing conflict.

Meanwhile, the US will be announcing a new $2.6bn military aid package this week that is expected to include air surveillance radars, anti-tank rockets and fuel trucks for the Ukrainian army. The US-NATO will keep supporting it with military aid while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board has approved a four-year $15.6bn loan programme for Ukraine. This is said to be part of a global $115bn package to support the country’s economy as it battles Russia’s 13-month occupation.

Turkey has finally approved Finland’s NATO membership after delaying for months, complaining the Nordic nation was supporting “terrorists”. Any Nato expansion needs the support of all its members. Finland will be the 31st NATO member of Nato that will be now formally admitted into NATO at its next summit, taking place in July in Lithuania. Sweden, which applied to join Nato at the same time last May, is still being blocked by Ankara over similar complaints.

Russia is well aware of the Kyiv move of completing the recruitment of its “so-called Attack Guard.”

So, some important changes have taken place around Russia’s UN Security Council presidency month – April 2023. February 2022 was also the month of Russia’s UNSC presidency where early last week the Ukraine war was provoked. The Kremlin has said that it will ‘exercise all its rights’ in the role amid anger from Kyiv and allies. The US-West believe that Russia will hold little influence on decisions but will be in charge of the agenda.

April could be a crucial month for Russia to have more countries supporting “effective multilateralism.” Seems, the task will be quite challenging with the growing concerns for peace in the region. Despite all efforts, in fact, Russia could not convince a large number of nations of its “special operation” in Ukraine. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statements reflect some planning to chair the UN Security Council meetings this month. Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has also said that Lavrov would lead a debate on the Middle East on April 25.

Will Russia be too effective to create positive vibes for Russia while the recent moves support NATO? Will Finland’s NATO membership add more vulnerability to Russia’s increasing challenges in the region and globally? Will NATO membership actually strengthen the country’s security, and improve stability and security in the region? Will it be a setback to Russia or the region? These questions though remain ambiguous at the moment or somewhat sunshine. But, actually, reveal their real consequences in a while. May not be as bright as intended. However, it would peak the geopolitical polarization with added advantages for the war merchants and weaponry producers. NATO’s expansion is likely to enhance threats to the region, contrary to China’s efforts for peace, connectivity and trade.

April 2023 is likely to see flared-up propaganda against Russia’s bumpy presidency of the UN Security Council. Propaganda is emerging out of the blue to kick Russia out of the UNSC. It could be quite ambitious for the US-NATO lobby but actually impossible. Lately, we have seen this lobby winning a resolution only by 3-2. The emerging situation may turn the table as the two major NATO allies, Germany and France, are disagreeing to further support the Ukraine war with highly sophisticated tanks and jets. It means whatever the Ukrainian “counteroffensive” shape up in the coming days, will be without the high-precision arms. Meanwhile, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu promised to boost munitions supplies to forces in Ukraine during a visit to the headquarters of Moscow’s troops fighting in the country.

Al Jazeera’s diplomatic editor James Bays reporting from the United Nations said: “But if you look at the rules and you look at the UN charter, those things are not possible [kicking Russia out from UNSC or depriving it of the presidency]. What we do know is that later this month, Lavrov will be here in New York. He’ll be chairing a number of meetings, including one in defence of this document – the UN’s founding charter.”

Surely, the cynical remarks by the NATO diplomats and their allies would have no implications. Other UNSC members will not be able to take even Washington’s criticism so seriously against Russia’s membership of the UN Security Council and its status as a permanent member. However, the White House urged Russia to “conduct itself professionally” when it assumed the role, saying there were no means to block Moscow from the post.

The writer is an Islamabad-based policy advocacy, strategic communication and outreach expert. He can be reached atdevcom.pakistan@gmail.com. He tweets @EmmayeSyed