Daily Times

We all know that the dialogue with the Taliban can fail and decisive military operations may have to be conducted. Thus, General Tariq Khan is considered as the hope of success in the war on terrorism by the soldiers and junior leaders of the army. He also enjoys the support of the local population not only because he is a Pashtun military commander but is also considered by the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) as the main successful general during the conduct of miltary operations against the militants.

Secondly, the PML-N leadership can accrue long lasting political advantages by eliminatimg militancy from KP, Karachi and Balochistan as General Khan can handle the security situation of the country and with success that the nation will cherish. The PML-N is already strong in Punjab and it needs lasting support in the other three provinces. It is clear that the people of KP, Balochistan and Karachi do not want anything else but a secure environment and whoever ensures them security will be a long term winner in those troubled regions.

At the same time, General Khan is a general who will always speak the truth in front of everyone. If he will have some suggestions with regard to the security and defence of the country, he is expected to put forward his sincere advice to the chief executive of the country and will try to convince him or get convinced. He is a general whose ins and outs are always visible and remain very transparent. Besides dealing with militancy and handling the security sitiuation of the country, General Khan has the ability and resolve to take strict and harsh decisions with regards to bringing drastic changes to make the army a professional one and cleaning the military intelligence and ISI from some black sheep and putting these two organisations on the assigned role as per the constitution.

Keeping the present situation in mind the best option is to promote the general from KP/FATA, which is the centre of Taliban activities and from where most of their activities are generated throughout the length and breadth of the country.

Two more generals, Lt. General Haroon and Lt. General Raheel Sharif, are also in the run but their chances of getting the coveted post are not bright.

In as much as the prime minster is concerned, major calculative points in selecting the new army chief are four, notwithstanding his on record statement on seniority and merit to be the criteria in his judgement.

Firstly, there must be an appraisal of Pakistan’s internal threats, with domestic militancy and asymmetrical warfare taking the lead in the short to medium term, and then implementing a cohesive strategy to push back the terrorist onslaught on the state. Pakistan’s army has already declared the internal security threats to be their number one challenge in the security doctrine of Pakistan.

Recently, the army changed its decades-old doctrine by acknowledging that growing militancy in the country was posing a serious threat to the country’s national security. Secondly, the upcoming drawdown of the US and NATO forces from Afghanistan towards the end of 2014 and the challenges thereto. Also, to gauge what would be in Pakistan’s best interests after this drawdown and to ensure that Pakistan does not lose much due to the impending power vacuum in Afghanistan. Thirdly, there is Pakistan’s external security threat and possible hostility from India in the long run, specially in case of any major terror attacks on India, including their stakes in Afghanistan. India’s declared Cold Start Doctrine of maximising the gains in 72 hours of conventional and surprise warfare is also a case in point.

And fourthly, there is Pakistan’s long term security positioning towards the US and the future of Pak-US military relations.

In as much as the army’s role in domestic politics and its traditional grip on matters of security and foreign affairs is concerned, the new Pakistan will gradually squeeze them out from the army if democracy is strengthened in Pakistan. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is already holding the defence and foreign affairs ministeries in his direct control for the same reason.

With General Kayani graduating to a full time member of the National Security Council and Lt. General Rashad moving onto the prestigious port of the JCGS and General Tariq Khan taking the mantle as COAS, Pakistan’s security establishment would be ready to deal with all the above challenges.

Prime Minister Sharif’s subjective experience of army generals in the past may steer him towards the status quo or taking a low-key General as his next COAS but the dictates of the time and challenges on the ground are far too great to ignore. It is expected that the prime minister will clearly appreciate the challenges at hand and choose someone with proven leadership qualities, strategy, vision and operational preparedness as the next chief for an army that may remain in active war for a few years to come.

(Concluded)

The writer is a freelance columnist